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October 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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Thanks for the October thread.

Think this will be somewhat interesting at times in the northeast the first two weeks of the month.  NAEFS continues colder than the normal in the eastern USA through at least the first 10 days...(on average).  75F highly unlikely in early October.  

Since normal temps are lowering fairly rapidly now (about 0.5F/day), and with GENERALLY below normal temps coming starting around Oct 1, probably lasting through at least the 10th, I would think there is a pretty good chance that at least one day will be colder in NYC than what occurred between Sept 19-22. I still think there is a chance of a killing freeze in the suburbs after the 4th in this colder than normal period. I've added a NAEFS ensemble graphic that shows the chance of temps below 32F in early October.

The chance of a slight covering of snow exists sometime between 4th and 10th in the Adirondacks/Catskills and added 1 graphic for fun only=not saying this will occur. That is the GEFS ensemble which has some sort of coastal that suggests cold enough for snow along the Appalachians. Added for fun only.  The EPS only has snow for Adirondacks. 

The overall idea... enjoy all your social distanced outdoor wining and dining (umbrella tent sheltered) between now and the end of September. It will turn cooler than normal thereafter. 727A/24

Screen Shot 2020-09-24 at 6.37.36 AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-09-24 at 6.02.36 AM.png

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8 hours ago, wdrag said:

The overall idea... enjoy all your social distanced outdoor wining and dining (umbrella tent sheltered) between now and the end of September. It will turn cooler than normal thereafter. 727A/24

terrible news for restaurants who need every dollar they can get.

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2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

They're setting up enclosed bubbles to keep outdoor customers warm and may even use propane heaters.

 

I’m not up on the protocols, L B. How safe and are there controls for such a possible widespread use of propane heating? As always .....

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1 minute ago, rclab said:

I’m not up on the protocols, L B. How safe and are there controls for such a possible widespread use of propane heating? As always .....

It's not allowed as of now because of safety concerns, but they are seeking permits.

 

https://nyc.streetsblog.org/2020/09/25/new-york-is-embracing-outdoor-heat-lamps-right-as-france-is-rejecting-them/

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18 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

terrible news for restaurants who need every dollar they can get.

Having some indoor dining helps some, although 25% capacity doesn't help a lot. But Connecticut is increasing their indoor capacity to 75%. The 50% capacity indoor dining never lead to an increase in cases, so that's a good thing. Hopefully the weather will cooperate to allow restaurants to do outdoor dining for quite awhile though. I think a lot of people are fine with sitting in 50 to 60 degree temps, so October and November should be ok. You just wear a little more. It will be tough though when the much colder weather comes in winter. Not many people will sit in 30 degrees. Hopefully by then NY and NJ will be able to increase indoor capacity like CT is. And perhaps heating for outdoors.

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48 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It's not allowed as of now because of safety concerns, but they are seeking permits.

 

https://nyc.streetsblog.org/2020/09/25/new-york-is-embracing-outdoor-heat-lamps-right-as-france-is-rejecting-them/

I hope an accommodation can be reached. I feel curbside use and an indefinite general extension of outdoor dining may serve the restaurants well.   As always ......

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Good Saturday morning,

Seems like cooler than normal delayed one day from previous days D8-14 NAEFS posts, but coming.

To my eyes, it gets interesting, especially 4th through the 14th.  Trough axis is generally just west of us so we don't get the max cold shots seen in the Great Lakes-Ohio Valley.  Still some notable day or two of chilly temps the first two weeks of October with a slight snowfall still possible Ads/Catskills sometime in there after the 4th and even 

Meanwhile, tropics look to be activating late next week. The NAEFS has a fairly impressive northward spreading area of heavy rain in the southeast USA.  Suspect interest will be directed there for the 7th-10th, and how it may interrelate with the northern stream up here. 

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First two weeks of October continue to look interesting:  Suburb hard freeze (timing clear sky/light wind around 4th and after), snow Catskills-Ads (still GEFS'd as per 06z/27 cycle around 6th or after),  and while not seen again recently in operational models,  a tropical system appears plausible for near FL in the 4th-10th time frame-(probably later portion of this 6 day window), and thereafter  an interaction with northern stream along the mid Atlantic coast  per NAEFS (still). Here's a snapshot to show what can been seen in some of the modeling... 30 members of the GEFS for 06z/7.  1511z/27  couple of min or corrections at 1831z... no change in the intent,

Screen Shot 2020-09-27 at 11.01.49 AM.png

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Good morning all, It is Oct 1... My interp of the NAEFS indicators from a week ago (Sep 23-24), were too cool here for the first week of October. Now, looks rather ordinary for the first week... near normal or at times cooler than normal. The period of the 7th-11th might be a bit more interesting pending eventual short waves diving into the Northeast-Maritimes with the associated low pressure system and subsequent cool air delivery. It's in this time frame that it might briefly turn a bit colder than the first week and a bit of snow is still indicated for the Adirondacks by GEFS/EPS ~ the 9th.  . Climatologically, seems as if nothing extra-ordinary is in the offing for at least a week. 

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19 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Good morning all, It is Oct 1... My interp of the NAEFS indicators from a week ago (Sep 23-24), were too cool here for the first week of October. Now, looks rather ordinary for the first week... near normal or at times cooler than normal. The period of the 7th-11th might be a bit more interesting pending eventual short waves diving into the Northeast-Maritimes with the associated low pressure system and subsequent cool air delivery. It's in this time frame that it might briefly turn a bit colder than the first week and a bit of snow is still indicated for the Adirondacks by GEFS/EPS ~ the 9th.  . Climatologically, seems as if nothing extra-ordinary is in the offing for at least a week. 

Reading another sub-forum it sounds like the coastal storm the Euro had for early next week is gone. Not sure if it is still on the EPS or if the other models that were showing it still have it. I hope this will not be another fall and winter with alot of D5+ fantasy storms. :facepalm:

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September ended at  +0.8[68.8].

The first 8 days of October are averaging 65degs.       Making it 60degs., or about 3degs. BN.

October figures to be about +1 on the month here.     Precipitation is BN everywhere except Florida this month.     I note that the southeastern  states have the best chance at BN.       Let's see if Tampa gets its 30th. straight month w/o going BN.       March 2018 was the last time for them.

Average is 56.9 for October now, but my 1968 Almanac has a  58.3  30- Year Normal back then.     So even more cooling has occurred due to global warming this month, than last month, lol.  

Well at least it indicates November has warmed since 1968 by 0.7.      Actually compares the +/- 15 year periods centered on 1945 and 1995.

61*(79%RH) here at 6am, m. clear.      66*(70% RH) by 11am.         70*(60%RH) by 1:30pm---partial overcast.       72*(53%RH) at 2pm.

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1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

Reading another sub-forum it sounds like the coastal storm the Euro had for early next week is gone. Not sure if it is still on the EPS or if the other models that were showing it still have it. I hope this will not be another fall and winter with alot of D5+ fantasy storms. :facepalm:

Yesterday, the 12z/30 UK was offshore of CC with the 10/5 coastal.  Today, more models are light on qpf for Monday and less organized... and that's what I'm going with for my own expectation.  Models are good at broad indications but difficult to be detailed accurate on D5. Best to blend.  Am watching ICON model more closely but  unless someone on this forum knows differently, it's just another consideration with no advantage beyond the GFS/EC/GGEM blend.  

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Morning thoughts...

Today will be mainly sunny and pleasant across the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 71°
Newark: 74°
Philadelphia: 73°

The first week of October will likely be cooler than normal overall.

30-Day Verification:

New York City (Central Park):
Average daily forecast: 75.5°
Average temperature: 75.4°
Average error: 1.2°

Newark:
Average daily forecast: 77.4°
Average temperature: 77.5°
Average error: 1.2°

Philadelphia:
Average daily forecast: 77.6°
Average temperature: 77.8°
Average error: 1.3°

 

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Low of 49 and now up to 65.   Warmer today in the low/mid 70s.  Weekend looks cool and mainly dry / 60/ 40s splits some 30s.  Next week a bit back and forth with some rain and potential larger storm early week followed by a day or two of warmer weather then a strong cold front (perhaps first frost/freezes) Fri 10/9 - Sat 10/10, before a more pronounced and potential sustained warmup.

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ECM has first frosts/freezes widespread next Friday 10/9 - Sat 10/10, brief cold shot before moderating /warming 10/12.

 

Friday 12z Fri 10/9 with warmup poised to follow within 36 - 48 hours.

image.thumb.png.058ed1e66f3a1dc443e82e1374a98909.pngFri

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20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

October continues to be one of the most - AO index months of the year in the low sea ice era. So October will get off to a cooler than normal start. We’ll see if the models are correct about a more Niña-like +EPO moderation in temperatures longer range.

DDE194EA-4893-4126-8057-6CE5EC4231E1.thumb.png.fceedfc65dee85a905b65ca79cce5145.png


 

it already made a big shift away from the very deep ak/pac low at day 10

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also looks like the nor'easter threat went way down. the pac jet is too much for models after day 4/5

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46 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

also looks like the nor'easter threat went way down. the pac jet is too much for models after day 4/5

I wouldn’t mind if the modeling centers stopped posting the OP runs after120 hrs. We would probably be better off with just ensemble means after day 5. These longer range OP runs seem to be taken too literally and then we get the big disappointment posts. It also doesn’t help during the cold season when the longer range OP snowfall maps get posted on social media. That the kind of thing that lowers peoples confidence in weather forecasts. But it could be easily avoided with more of a reliance on ensemble means. 

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57 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

also looks like the nor'easter threat went way down. the pac jet is too much for models after day 4/5

GFS leading the way this year

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20 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

GFS leading the way this year

Hopefully, the coming EPS upgrade makes a lasting improvement.

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5 hours ago, forkyfork said:

also looks like the nor'easter threat went way down. the pac jet is too much for models after day 4/5

That will probably be our issue once again for the rest of the fall and winter. Hopefully it lets up at some point soon but I won't hold my breath. It has been very persistent. 

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Under partly to mostly sunny skies, the temperature rose into the lower 70s across much of the region today. Tomorrow will start off cloudy with a few showers. The sun could return later in the day. Temperatures will be likely rise only to the lower and middle 60s.

Meanwhile, fresh off of its 3rd hottest September and hottest June-September period on record, Phoenix saw the high temperature reach an October record-tying 107° earlier today. Parts of Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay saw temperatures topple monthly and even all-time high temperature records.

Overall, the opening week of October will see generally cooler than normal conditions. No exceptional cold is likely. Warmer readings could return during the following week ahead of a renewed push of cool air. Afterward, a pronounced and sustained warmup is possible. The latest EPS weeklies favor the development of a sustained warmer than normal pattern for the second half of October. The development of this warmth also shows up on the 63-ensemble MME subseasonal guidance and latest weekly CFSv2 guidance. Overall, October will likely be somewhat warmer than normal in much of the region with temperatures generally 0.5° - 1.5° above normal.

October could also be wetter than September in and around the New York City area. Since 1950, 10 of the 12 (83%) of the La Niña cases that followed an El Niño winter saw October receive more precipitation than September, including 7 of the 8 (88%) cases since 1980. October 1954 and October 1998 were the exceptions. The largest increase in precipitation occurred in 2005. September 2005 saw just 0.48" precipitation in New York City. October 2005 received 16.73" precipitation.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around September 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail into at least the start of winter.

The SOI was +20.43.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.900.

On September 30 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.490 (RMM). The September 29-adjusted amplitude was 1.564.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO.   

 

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10/1

JFK: 75
BLM: 75
LGA: 74
ISP: 74
TEB: 73
PHL: 73
EWR: 74
ACY: 72
NYC: 72
New Brnswck: 72
TTN: 70

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