September 2020 wx discussion

[MJO812]

41 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

What storm is that?  Something that forms later?

Teddy

Bermuda  should watch this closely. 

[Brian5671]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Teddy

Bermuda  should watch this closely. 

Some monster waves at minimum for Bermuda

[MJO812]

34 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Some monster waves at minimum for Bermuda

Maybe

[TriPol]

Could not ask for a more beautiful day outside.

[NJwx85]

Very low probability IMO that Teddy will be a big factor here. The trough South of Greenland this weekend should be enough to create a weakness in the ridge which allows the storm to escape. Obviously Bermuda will need to pay close attention. 

Somewhat bad timing so far during peak season with regards to East coast threats.

Just remember that Sandy didn't occur until the very end of October so we have a long way to go.

[gravitylover]

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Teddy is going to produce a great hurricane swell up and down the East Coast for the surfers. 
 

 

 

 

 

Looks like some serious rip currents for the S shore of LI.

[nycwinter]

14 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Very low probability IMO that Teddy will be a big factor here. The trough South of Greenland this weekend should be enough to create a weakness in the ridge which allows the storm to escape. Obviously Bermuda will need to pay close attention. 

Somewhat bad timing so far during peak season with regards to East coast threats.

Just remember that Sandy didn't occur until the very end of October so we have a long way to go.

more likely to have stronger troughs in l;ate october then in mid september sandy was once in a 100 year storm..

[MJO812]

28 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Very low probability IMO that Teddy will be a big factor here. The trough South of Greenland this weekend should be enough to create a weakness in the ridge which allows the storm to escape. Obviously Bermuda will need to pay close attention. 

Somewhat bad timing so far during peak season with regards to East coast threats.

Just remember that Sandy didn't occur until the very end of October so we have a long way to go.

We have to see if the storm keeps trending west. It can get stuck under the ridge  like HM and Earthlight were talking about earlier today 

 

[dmillz25]

65 for the high

[NYC10023]

anyone else sneezing/coughing/sore-ish throat today? I'm not sure if the wildfire smoke is irritating me or just regular allergies 

[rclab]

3 hours ago, uncle W said:

maybe billions of years from now Jupiter will be headed right towards the earth and it will look like that...

I was going to say Venus but your closer to the accurate look. As always ...

[donsutherland1]

Smoky sun this evening.

[Dan76]

Sunrise today was meh...like sunset.

[bluewave]

The NYC 4th longest 70° degree streak finallly ended.

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 70 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Ending Date
1	118	2015-09-30
2	117	1995-09-22
-	117	1994-09-21
3	115	1925-09-21
4	113	2020-09-14
-	113	2008-09-18
5	111	2016-09-27
-	111	1966-09-19

[donsutherland1]

Today was the coolest day so far this month. After another cool start, tomorrow will be somewhat milder.

Across the Atlantic Ocean, more monthly record high temperatures tumble in parts of Europe, including Belgium, France, and the Netherlands. Météo-France described the record-breaking September heat that occurred north of the Seine River as follows, "Monthly records have been beaten, even pulverized." Monthly record high temperatures included:

Antwerp, Belgium: 94°
Beauvechain, Belgium: 94°
Brussels: 94°
Charleroi, Belgium: 96° (national September record)
Florennes, Belgium: 91°
Geilenkirchen, Germany: 95°
Gilze-Rijen, Netherlands: 95° (national September record)
Kleine Brugel, Belgium: 94°
Lille, France: 95°
Luxembourg: 93°
Maastricht, Netherlands: 94°
Melun, France: 94°
Paris-Le Bourget: 95°
Pontoise, France: 95°
St. Quentin, France: 94°

An even cooler air mass could arrive late in the week. Generally below normal readings could persist into at least the last week of September. There is an increasing possibility that September could wind up on the cool side of normal, which would be an uncommon event in recent cases preceding La Niña winters.

The most recent subseasonal guidance is in strong consensus that a generally cool regime could last through the first week of October. The latest EPS weeklies forecast an end to the cool anomalies near the end of September.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around September 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions have developed and will likely prevail through the remainder of autumn.

The SOI was +7.67.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.576.

On September 14, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.030 (RMM). The September 13-adjusted amplitude was 0.743.

Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO.   

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 50% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September. September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.5°.

Finally,on September 14, Arctic sea ice extent (JAXA) was 3.582 million square kilometers. To date, the summer minimum figure is 3.555 million square kilometers (JAXA). Based on 2010-2019 data, the highest 25% bound was 3.742 million square kilometers. The lowest 25% bound was 3.581 million square kilometers. The lowest 10% bound is 3.465 million square kilometers. 2020 is the second consecutive year with a minimum extent figure below 4.000 million square kilometers and the third such year on record. 2020 also has, by far, the second lowest extent on record.

 

[uncle W]

26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The NYC 4th longest 70° degree streak finallly ended.

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 70 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Ending Date
1	118	2015-09-30
2	117	1995-09-22
-	117	1994-09-21
3	115	1925-09-21
4	113	2020-09-14
-	113	2008-09-18
5	111	2016-09-27
-	111	1966-09-19

with four years ahead of 2020 its the fifth longest...I wonder if the smokey skies helped keep highs down...

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, JoshSnow said:

I’m not religious but doesn’t the Bible predict the world ending after the sun gets completely blocked off. It feels a title eerie lately with what’s going on around the world honestly, maybe I’m just bugging. I saw the sunset earlier it looked so weird!

 

edit: 

I found the verse

 

The sun will be turned to darkness and the moon to blood before the coming of the great and glorious day of the Lord.

Thanks for sharing this powerful quote. Once the smoke has passed, we’ll see more typical sunsets. The kind of sunset we witnessed today is commonplace in countries such as Indonesia and China. There’s just an incredible amount of pollution that produces such sunsets. At least that was the case when I was in both countries.

[SACRUS]

9/15

JFK: 70
ACY: 68
PHL: 68
LGA: 67
EWR: 67
ISP: 67
TEB: 67
New Brnswck: 66
TTN: 66
NYC: 66
BLM: 65

[MJO812]

Euro is also west with Teddy.

Hits Bermuda and then landfalls in Maine.

[Rtd208]

Current temp is 49 here. Wow

[the_other_guy]

49F

 

Colder than yesterday morning

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 65degs.      Make it 60degs., or -8.

59*(73%RH) here at 6am, m. clear.          71* by 4pm.

The Tropics:   30.2N  87.7W( I have arrived), 42N 49W,    16N 49W,    22N, 34W,  and New at 9N 23W.

[ForestHillWx]

45; two in a row. 

[lee59]

Low of 50 degrees here.

[SACRUS]

52/50 off a low of 44.  Warmer the next 48 hours 70s today and perhaps 80s tomorrow with enough sun before the big / longer cool down arrives Fri night.  Sat (9/19) - Tue (9/22).  Another brief warmup looks likely by Wed (9/23) ahead of a back and forth cooler by Fri (9/25).  The month looks to end on a warmer side as ridging pushes into the east.  Overall the next week looks  dry and extending beyond.  Teddy near Halfax or New England?

[SnoSki14]

40s this morning, probably the coolest weather since May or about 4 months. 

Looks really cool this weekend and I wouldn't be surprised to see lows undercutting guidance by several degrees so upper 30s maybe? 

Interesting that forecast discussion points out smoke will keep temps down several degrees today. Likely had an impact yesterday as well. 

[dWave]

14 hours ago, ny10019 said:

anyone else sneezing/coughing/sore-ish throat today? I'm not sure if the wildfire smoke is irritating me or just regular allergies 

Air quality is still considered good. The smoke is too high to affect air quality at the surface. At least that is the offical forecast. For me the cooler, and espically drier air recently is an asthma trigger. 

[uofmiami]

47.6 in Syosset & 47.2 in Muttontown. 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Today will be sunny and somewhat milder. Temperatures will likely reach the lower 70s across the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 71°
Newark: 73°
Philadelphia: 73°

Tomorrow will be milder, but an even colder air mass than the most recent cold shot could arrive late in the week.  

Hurricane Sally made landfall near Gulf Shores, AL with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph. So far, Sally has brought 24.80" rain to Escambia, FL and 24.81" to Pensacola Naval Air Station. The ASOS at Pensacola Region Airport was knocked out yesterday evening. A storm report stated, "Landscape and architectural debris found lining the streets of downtown Mobile, AL."

 

[FPizz]

43.3