White Gorilla Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 1 hour ago, wdrag said: Good Tuesday morning all, No topic from me this morning. Will re-evaluate late this afternoon and beyond but for now... I see isolated strong northeastward moving storms, from I95 northwestward, 2P-10P, some with tiny areas of 1-2" rain, and even one or 2 that might produce a severe weather report but not a widespread event, as far as I can tell. There should be pretty decent band of thunderstorms across central NYS this evening that may die out in se NYS, w CT and extreme nw NJ overnight? Wednesday-Thursday and now via the 06z/11 GFS include Friday into early Saturday. Not enough model consistency for me to as yet, if ever, target topic 4"+ rains and/or more than 2 severe reports. However, not out of the question for parts of the I95 corridor northwestward, but just too early for me to express any confidence. Modeling has become a little timid in it's 00z/11 model cycle (06z/11 GFS differs considerably wetter). Even the SPC HREF, noted for more easily identifying big rainfall, is relatively modest through Wednesday afternoon. I'll probably be off line 8A-2P. 736A/11 I always look forward to your posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 Only made it to 75° for low this am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 83 and steamy 75. Low clouds and fog burning off and it seems like we're off to the races. More 90s today especially in the hotter spots. Tomorrow storms arrive at some point in the afternoon so a toss up day for potnetial 90s and reaching / extending the heatwave. Ridge builds into the Rockies with WAR shifting towards east of Bermuda. Plenty of storms around in a rather stagnant air mass Thu / Fri before onshore flow build around Sat (8/15) and Sun (8/16). Mon (8/17) and Tue (8/18) warmer but still looks like opporunity for showers and popups each day. Cooler air looks likely Wed 8/19 - Thu (8/20) will be interesting to see the extent of the reach. Beyond there longer range. Rockies ridge and heat will move east into the Plains and MidWest and similar pattern will push heat into the area with the strongest heat liekly coming in 2 days spurts for a hot close to the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 Crazy NAM run-something to watch for sure 6z GFS has something similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 On 8/10/2020 at 11:43 AM, Will - Rutgers said: Too bad it's humid subtropical and not Mediterranean. Wonder what kind of crops we'll be able to grow here in 20 years. The development that my mom lives at in Bedminster have already been planting crape myrtle over the last couple of years. They seem to be thriving well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 The marine layer is holding on near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 Yup foggy this morning in pt lookout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 Haven't seen the sun today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 Another day with clouds and onshore flow allowing the warmest temperatures to go north of our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 82/77 here. Generally sunny with intermittent cloud cover (thick low clouds). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 looks like no heatwave at ewr. topped out at 88 so far and down to 84 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: looks like no heatwave at ewr. topped out at 87 so far and down to 84 now Same here with se wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 Hot and sunny on the uws. Bring on the rain later in the week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 89 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 Got a cell entering Brooklyn now. One just west of Jersey City too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 Just heard a clap of thunder... make that two claps of thunder outside. Second one was loud! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 Good Tuesday afternoon everyone, I saw the 1 SVR for the ne NJ coast. Won't surprise at a nice line of vigorous convection drifting into the NYC forum coverage area after midnight and dying out vicinity NYC-LI at dawn Wednesday per the midday HRRR Thereafter, new convection late Wednesday along the front with uncertainty on amounts-placement late Wed-Sat. The very wet GFS op of near 8" here by Monday seems to be far too wet as compared to the 12z/11 UK, GGEM, EC op runs. The GEFS/EPS ensembles are generally ~1" NYC. So, showers and storms are coming, a little bit today, late tonight and more late Wed-Fri or Sat. How much?? For now no topic. I see the heat wave may not make it, even for EWR?? 348P/11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 11, 2020 Author Share Posted August 11, 2020 High for the day was 91 here. Current temp 83/DP 72/RH 69% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 Upton has low 80s and dry this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 The EPS has a break in the 90° heat for a while after tomorrow. Plenty of onshore flow coming up with high pressure to the north and lows to the south. The actual rainfall will probably be determined in the short term by where the weak fronts set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 Full sun here all day, was a nasty day! 84/75 now, high was 88. HI topped at 101 earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 fwiw..have seen the 18zNAM with 8+ on e LI by Fri night. Will rereview late tonight and Wed morning and add in the 00z/12 NAEFS qpf which is increasing through Fri. No action at this time on my part. Walt 523P/11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 What’s the actual likelihood of seeing rain and storms Wednesday and Thursday for south central Suffolk? It seems like this whol year as soon as they hit nassau they die Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Plenty of onshore flow coming up with high pressure to the north and lows to the south. Do you think by day 10 we may start to see a couple days of NW flow, versus the continuous Easterly/NE and SE flow depicted by the models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 The temperature rose mainly into the upper 80s across the region today. Tomorrow should be a similar day. The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through much of September, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer and a warm start to fall throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around August 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely into the start of autumn. During the autumn, La Niña conditions will likely develop. The SOI was +8.44. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.627. On August 10, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.796 (RMM). The August 9-adjusted amplitude was 1.259. Some of the guidance suggests that the MJO could be in Phase 8 in late August. The convergence of the MJO's passage through phase 8 and revived tropical cyclone activity could suggest the possibility of an East Coast threat during the August 20-September 10 period. Phases 8-1-2 have coincided with a cluster of East Coast landfalls. Belle (1976) and Gloria (1985) made landfall when the MJO was in Phase 8 at a low amplitude. Sandy (2012) and Fay (2020) made landfall when the MJO was in Phase 2. The MJO's recent passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above has been uncommon during the first half of August. During the 1981-2019 period only 1983 and 2019 saw the MJO move through Phase 4 with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the first half of August. August 1983 had the longest such stretch. Both cases saw the second half of August average generally warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region. Both cases also featured a warmer than normal September. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period. Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 66% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August. August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.0°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 8/11 PHL: 90 New Brnswck: 90 LGA: 89 TEB: 89 NYC: 88 ACY: 88 EWR: 88 BLM: 87 TTN: 87 ISP: 82 JFK: 83 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 On 8/10/2020 at 9:55 PM, uncle W said: some 1800's snowstorms... 1857 http://chroniclingam...-20/ed-1/seq-5/ 1857... http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030213/1857-01-20/ed-1/seq-5/ 1867... http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1867-01-21/ed-1/seq-5/ 1872 http://chroniclingam...-27/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingam...-27/ed-1/seq-5/ http://chroniclingam...-27/ed-1/seq-1/ http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50352788 http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50352790 http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50352791 1869...snowstorm... http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030272/1869-01-02/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1869-01-02/ed-1/seq-8/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030313/1869-01-02/ed-1/seq-4/ 1877...snowstorm... http://chroniclingam...-03/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingam...-02/ed-1/seq-8/ http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/60725875 http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030313/1877-01-03/ed-1/seq-6/ 1859...16" of snow... http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030313/1859-01-05/ed-1/seq-8/ 1836 big snow... http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030311/1836-01-11/ed-1/seq-2/ 1879 foot of snow http://chroniclingam...-17/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030272/1879-01-17/ed-1/seq-3/ 1867... http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1867-01-18/ed-1/seq-4/ 1855 snowstorm... http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030313/1855-02-10/ed-1/seq-1/ 1897 http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-1/ 1899...... http://fultonhistory...cale - 0816.pdf http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1899-02-13/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1899-02-13/ed-1/seq-7/ 1899... http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1899-02-14/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1899-02-14/ed-1/seq-2/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1899-02-14/ed-1/seq-3/ http://fultonhistory...cale - 0817.pdf http://fultonhistory...cale - 0817.pdf 1867... http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1867-02-22/ed-1/seq-5/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030313/1867-02-22/ed-1/seq-4/ 1894 storm http://chroniclingam...-27/ed-1/seq-1/ 1894 http://chroniclingam...-26/ed-1/seq-1/ 1888 http://bklyn.newspap.../image/50437841 http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-2/ http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-3/ http://fultonhistory...cale - 0455.pdf 1896 http://chroniclingam...-17/ed-1/seq-1/ http://bklyn.newspap.../image/50337497 1892 http://chroniclingam...-19/ed-1/seq-5/ http://bklyn.newspap.../image/50461371 Thanks Uncle, this is a wealth of info! On a note about a different kind of storm, the Perseids are really good tonight! Around 11 PM I saw a few really bright ones that seemed to pass just over my house! One really notable one that changed color from golden to red and after it streaked across really low I heard a sound, almost like the sound of a pebble hitting something? Would that be a bolide? How are the sky conditions over there? I'm still in the Poconos for a couple more days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 Another very sultry morning...clouds helped keep temp up...77°/75° here at this hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 80degs., or about 4degs. AN. Month to date is +2.9[78.9]. Should be about +3.3[79.4] by the 20th. 78*(95%RH) here at 6am., scattered overcast. 80*(93%RH) by 9am, scuzzy looking. 82*(RH87%) by Noon. Oil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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