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STILL N OF PIKE
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6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

FWIW...top 18z MAV highs for New England

ASH 99
CON 98
MHT 98
FIT 98
LWM 98
OWD 98
BAF 98
BOS 97
CEF 97
BED 97
SFM 97
BDL 97

Weird not having the NNE ASOS sites on top there... haha.

All joking aside, I wonder if they'll mix as well as they did today.  I think if they mix out a spot 100 isn't out of the question.  If dews stay 63-65F and above, I don't think there's a chance. 

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17 minutes ago, radarman said:

CEF dewpoint went from 59 to 70 in one hour this evening.  Bizarre.  Sprinkler?

I don’t know what was going on, my weather station is usually pretty on point with the local Davis stations and DP was bouncing from 64-70 all day.  
I’m guessing it had something to do with today’s heat and all of the rain we had this week.

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5 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I don’t know what was going on, my weather station is usually pretty on point with the local Davis stations and DP was bouncing from 64-70 all day.  
I’m guessing it had something to do with today’s heat and all of the rain we had this week.

Dews right off the deck aren’t that high. When we lose the mixing, the southerly flow and evapotranspiration start to overwhelm the boundary layer. A puff of wind mixes the lower dews right back down. Monday you guys get some deeper layer humidity.

Lots of low 60s in NH this morning. 62.5° here.

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A lot of our top heat days start in the 60s. Like we’ve been saying, the lower the dews the higher the heating potential. I don’t worry a lot about the launching pad stuff. As long as we have sun the atmosphere will warm to its potential. We had quite a few midmorning clouds up here in July 95, but once we cleared we still shot up to 100+.

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Point and click is 95F for ORH. That would tie the record from the beastly July ‘91 heatwave. 

I’m a bit skeptical though. I’d like to see the wind be more WNW at least in the morning. SW wind all day is tough to go really high there. 

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Mm... it would be unusual to tag 100 off a low of 64 though -

I'm not absolutely certain of that ... but by and large most days in my experience, having lived in both rural and urban environments over eastern Mass over the last 35 years ... is that  when the high temperature exceeded even 96 .. but 98 F the low temperature were convincingly warmer than last night.  The "launch pad" phrasing isn't merely rhetoric - just sayn'... 

It'll be an interesting now-cast for nerds.  Given that the 850mb thermal axis (*nearing or even exceeding +21C ...) passes over 18z to 00z ( supposedly perfect timing too) yet the temperature stalls at 97 .. 98 in the MOS ... That's a shirk job for that temp at that level/adiabat. Oh yeah... And, given the lows being chilly ( relatively so...) may be why that fails to be 100.  The standard model from that sigma should be about 104 in the 2 meter logarithmic asymptote. It's almost like we make 98 today as actually as a statistical anomaly relative to these lows .. but, because we missed the elevated starting temps...we lose a key "thermal momentum" ...so we get hot as donkey ballz but no 100... maximizing off a 65 low, but falling short of 21 C air layer... Delicious confusion fodder for petty argument- nice...

But, it's quibbling over minutia when it's 97 anyway... I just sayn'... I don't think it is so easily dismissed as a concept and predictive usefulness to look at antecedent morning conditions...  Not that anyone is... straw-manning here.  :)  

In fact, I would almost put money down on the following:  most 100 days have a mix-out key interval that does the final sort of relay/goose to the temperature.... It's a micro-physics study really.. but we need that 96/74 F hover there at 2pm to suddenly mix out at some key BL failure/pop and then the DPs drops to 68 and the temp pops to 100.5  ...I am almost willing to bet, that most days that tagged 100 had this behavior or quasi/hinted in the DP curves... Where as, drier days tend to use up all that time rising such that it's 99 by 5:30 ... interesting

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Point and click is 95F for ORH. That would tie the record from the beastly July ‘91 heatwave. 

I’m a bit skeptical though. I’d like to see the wind be more WNW at least in the morning. SW wind all day is tough to go really high there. 

I often mention FOUS numbers ...but few seemed to acknowledge when I do - heh... so taken for whatever discarded worth this may be...

The wind between the LGA-ALB-BOS 'triangulum' is averaging 220 degrees at 18z today... so, that tends to argue that ORH being nestled betwixt these locales ...will likely see a wind between 210 and 230...

just adding to you're argument...

But here's the thing, this is an anomalous heat delivery scenario for New England/NE and upper MA in terms of typology for big heat...   We don't typically get 95+ bakery mist on laminar west structured 500 mb flows... We more typically get them from a ridge nodes, where if anything...we're sort of are lighter and WNW at 500 mb with a well-timed expulsion of SW EML/kinetically charged air that got 'captured' during the building phases of said ridge...such that the dragon fart rattles around inside... blah blah..

I'm looking at the overall structure of this ( step back, super-synoptic/hemispheric) and it's almost like a non- Rosby wave heat delivery... That said, heights are higher than normal across our quatra-hemispheric scope in general...so we're getting this heat excursion out of a non traditional delivery/set-up... Less 'nodal' and more from conveyor ..

It just makes me wonder if a SW flow 98+ being unusual at Logan too, is also more plausible given to the anomalous nature of the larger circulation circumstance...  fascinating..

HC heat wave? 

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm... it would be unusual to tag 100 off a low of 64 though -

I'm not absolutely certain of that ... but by and large most days in my experience, having lived in both rural and urban environments over eastern Mass over the last 35 years ... is that  when the high temperature exceeded even 96 .. but 98 F the low temperature were convincingly warmer than last night.  The "launch pad" phrasing isn't merely rhetoric - just sayn'... 

It'll be an interesting now-cast for nerds.  Given that the 850mb thermal axis (*nearing or even exceeding +21C ...) passes over 18z to 00z ( supposedly perfect timing too) yet the temperature stalls at 97 .. 98 in the MOS ... That's a shirk job for that temp at that level/adiabat. Oh yeah... And, given the lows being chilly ( relatively so...) may be why that fails to be 100.  The standard model from that sigma should be about 104 in the 2 meter logarithmic asymptote. It's almost like we make 98 today as actually as a statistical anomaly relative to these lows .. but, because we missed the elevated starting temps...we lose a key "thermal momentum" ...so we get hot as donkey ballz but no 100... maximizing off a 65 low, but falling short of 21 C air layer... Delicious confusion fodder for petty argument- nice...

But, it's quibbling over minutia when it's 97 anyway... I just sayn'... I don't think it is so easily dismissed as a concept and predictive usefulness to look at antecedent morning conditions...  Not that anyone is... straw-manning here.  :)  

In fact, I would almost put money down on the following:  most 100 days have a mix-out key interval that does the final sort of relay/goose to the temperature.... It's a micro-physics study really.. but we need that 96/74 F hover there at 2pm to suddenly mix out at some key BL failure/pop and then the DPs drops to 68 and the temp pops to 100.5  ...I am almost willing to bet, that most days that tagged 100 had this behavior or quasi/hinted in the DP curves... Where as, drier days tend to use up all that time rising such that it's 99 by 5:30 ... interesting

7/22/11 is great example of this! 

Data from my old Davis back home in Shrewsbury that day:

Screen Shot 2020-07-19 at 10.02.20 AM.png

you can see the temp starting to level off a bit at 96 around 1 pm with dews in the low 70s. dews mix out into the low 50s and you get that last 3-4 degree rise .. I believe max was 99.5 and by far the hottest temp I recorded there (since 2006) 

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A MAJOR SWASS OUTBREAK IS FORECAST FOR TODAY/TONIGHT

The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, in conjunction with its partners at the National Weather Service and the National Strategic TP Reserve, have issued a HIGH RISK for swamp ass this afternoon and evening. This is a Particularly Dangerous Situation. Soaring temperatures and humidity, combined with ongoing toilet paper shortages, will result in dangerous conditions from the gluteus medius to the maximus as well as a high likelihood of life threatening acid rain and flooding of the perinial gorge and taint plain. Damaging heat bursts may originate from the high risk area as well. The NSTPR has petitioned the White House to release precious reserves, but no action is forthcoming at this juncture. Spotter activation is requested in the hatched region.

shorty.jpg

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When I look for 100 at BOS there is a checklist:

1.  90 by 9:   Fail today

2.  Winds to the left of 240:  failing so far today

3.  Dews below 70:  pass today

I suspect BOS hits 96-98 which while really hot nothing out of the ordinary if this ends up the hottest day of the year..

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5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

When I look for 100 at BOS there is a checklist:

1.  90 by 9:   Fail today

2.  Winds to the left of 240:  failing so far today

3.  Dews below 70:  pass today

I suspect BOS hits 96-98 which while really hot nothing out of the ordinary if this ends up the hottest day of the year..

'10 after 10' failed too...

But hey, look on the bright side - for once, MOS might actually nail the cap temperatures during strong heating potential ...

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

'10 after 10' failed too...

But hey, look on the bright side - for once, MOS might actually nail the cap temperatures during strong heating potential ...

Looking at 12Z FOUS-tomorrow has everything save T1.....

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