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hailers-torrent tracks next two afternoons


wdrag
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Instability should increase today and especially Wednesday with modeled cape and ki increasing a bit as the cold pool aloft drifts nearby. EC lightning density also supports. Low cloud and/or cooling sea breezes probably minimize strong storm potential for the eastern portion of LI.  Have not delved into detail of the modeled soundings but yesterdays activity should be repeated, and maybe more so, but not quite the same locations. I'm favoring NYS/NNJ and probably also down from extreme sw CT into the NY metro. It's possible several locations will have as much as 2.5" of rain by Wednesday evening while most of us have, as posted by WPC (less than 1/2"). Hail sizes...unknown, but certainly in some of the afternoon storms. More rainbows  - yes.  Wind gusts, usually below 35kt, but as per yesterday, several storms might pop damaging wind.

Hail and damaging wind are probably not outlooked by SPC through 09z/30 issuance, due to uncertainty and likelihood of not matching their areal coverage criteria for alerting.  

This continues last weekends interesting weather and added needed rainfall for the NY forum, in what appears to me, another 10 days-multiple episodes of thunderstorms with this noted in the General Discussion Observations topic.  

Would like to keep this thread to June 30-July 1. Hope thunderstorm production lives up to expectations- I think the stronger storms will be Wednesday afternoon, barring low overcast arriving from New England. 

Yesterdays LSR map attached and will delete it late today, after the first round. 630A/30

 

One other note: OKX AFD from early this morning has it well covered. 

 

Screen_Shot_2020-06-30_at_5_49.47_AM.png

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3 hours ago, uofmiami said:

Probably where seabreeze front is, since the clouds have limited our heating and the movement of the seabreeze front northward.

too bad we didn't get another one like yesterday's north to south moving system that would have hit anyone in its path regardless of geographic location

 

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7 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Have some incredible hail damage on the UWS from last night. Trees are shredded, based on videos I saw from coworkers that were here last night the hail was golf ball size and accumulated. I wish I was here to see it. Now on to the cleanup. 
 

11A4A8D4-384E-497F-AA57-29E3DE956735.jpeg

in the videos I saw it actually looked like blowing and drifting snow haha

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Got some good, beneficial rains off and on today. We could use a nice, stalled tropical storm to help us break the drought, though. The lack of moisture is odd in 2020. Lack of rain or snow during the winter months, lack of rain during spring.. definitely thought we were getting close to putting some red flag warnings up. Hopefully the rains we're getting bust the drought and don't let our temps get too high next week.

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21 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Got some good, beneficial rains off and on today. We could use a nice, stalled tropical storm to help us break the drought, though. The lack of moisture is odd in 2020. Lack of rain or snow during the winter months, lack of rain during spring.. definitely thought we were getting close to putting some red flag warnings up. Hopefully the rains we're getting bust the drought and don't let our temps get too high next week.

and to think coming into 2020 it was months and months of above average precipitation

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3 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

and to think coming into 2020 it was months and months of above average precipitation

Some stations including mine, had over 60" of precip in both 2018 and 2019...Dec had record precip here with 8.19"...its really been just a two month dry spell.

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Yesterdays expectation was not realized...unsure whether we can this afternoon (thunder/iso small hail/G 35 KT)?  Agree w OKX early morning AFD on pulse svr. Looks maybe a tad more unstable today...definitely need temps several degrees warmer later today to have  a chance of realizing bigger southward moving storms. I doubt if I'll comment during the day. Will produce a  2 day summary (precip estimate) of rainfall tomorrow.  Yesterday's (since 12z/30) is attached. (0.07 here in Wantage yesterday afternoon). 609A EDT-1009Z/1

Screen_Shot_2020-07-01_at_5_32.46_AM.png

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Hi!  Forenoon update... looking more like what I thought would happen yesterday, even yesterday during the height of the activity.  Per radar 1540z radar and OKX response... am thinking we're off to a much better start. Includes radar determined ISOLATED hailers, and torrents NY metro.  Let's see what evolves. 1541z/1

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