Hoth Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: And there you have it folks, Ole Joe just put the KOD on this one, Next. Someone needs to warn Galveston. Like, now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 21 minutes ago, Hoth said: Someone needs to warn Galveston. Like, now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoalaBeer Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 Haha oh man I happily forgot Big Joe even existed. I remember 16 year old me tracking hurricanes and I thought that dude was the GOAT of forecasting tropical systems....ohh how much I've learned. But anyways, when should I start boarding up in Hampton? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 1 hour ago, KoalaBeer said: Haha oh man I happily forgot Big Joe even existed. I remember 16 year old me tracking hurricanes and I thought that dude was the GOAT of forecasting tropical systems....ohh how much I've learned. But anyways, when should I start boarding up in Hampton? Wow. That's what, 3-6 members out of 51 that track offshore up here? Inland runner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 31, 2020 Author Share Posted July 31, 2020 Hurricane now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 31, 2020 Author Share Posted July 31, 2020 Gfs looks like center goes over RI/SE MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 Solid hit on the Cape that run. #NovaScotiaStrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 where is Jimmy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: where is Jimmy Evacuating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 The dawn awakening realized Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 GFS is Bob...key is to not have it bleed east in future guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 Omg ukie please!!!!! That would be nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: Omg ukie please!!!!! That would be nuts Post. can’t do it from my phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 Never mind just saw. We take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 Euro looks right at Cape Canaveral at hr 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 Still skeptical on the more W track. The trough that evolves over the ern U.S. is not digging and is positively tilted. That's not how you typically bring a TC to SNE. Basically it is just riding a channel in the mean flow, not drawn in by backing flow. One thing I have noticed empirically over time, is that these things tend to recurve out sharper than any model forecast in a synoptic set up like this. You have to find a good reason why it will *not* recurve out sharper than forecast. Here's the pattern that brought Bob up. It was focused, digging s/w trof that gave SNE decent +RA/+TSRA only 24 hr after Bob departed. And the next image is the 00z GFS for 96 hr. It's not the same. In Bob's case, you had a dumbbelling effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 6 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Lol why is most of RI and ECT under water? It's the "after" satellite image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 Well.. it’s coming. This is the one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 GFS now kisses FL too. We may have to watch that trend. If it does scrape FL and then head into Land near SC/NC...not sure how much is left once she gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: GFS now kisses FL too. We may have to watch that trend. If it does scrape FL and then head into Land near SC/NC...not sure how much is left once she gets here. I think it’s going to trend like Matthew and stay off shore here, but will be close. Looks like some shear my interact with it near FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 57 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Well.. it’s coming. This is the one Yeah, the SE coast really needs to pay attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 8 hours ago, dryslot said: So Alabama is safe? Fake news! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GFS now kisses FL too. We may have to watch that trend. If it does scrape FL and then head into Land near SC/NC...not sure how much is left once she gets here. Euro wind max Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 I just want rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 First of multiple threats. WAR footing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 Big boy coming right into heart of New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Big boy coming right into heart of New England EPS all bury this inland SC not a big boy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 4 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: 5 bun run Yikes. Glad I had my trees pruned recently in that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: EPS all bury this inland SC not a big boy Limp Bizkit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 4 hours ago, vortex95 said: Still skeptical on the more W track. The trough that evolves over the ern U.S. is not digging and is positively tilted. That's not how you typically bring a TC to SNE. Basically it is just riding a channel in the mean flow, not drawn in by backing flow. One thing I have noticed empirically over time, is that these things tend to recurve out sharper than any model forecast in a synoptic set up like this. You have to find a good reason why it will *not* recurve out sharper than forecast. Here's the pattern that brought Bob up. It was focused, digging s/w trof that gave SNE decent +RA/+TSRA only 24 hr after Bob departed. And the next image is the 00z GFS for 96 hr. It's not the same. In Bob's case, you had a dumbbelling effect. Agreed, tough to get a full blown TC with a positive tilt 5H Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.