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George BM

April Discobs 2020

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no flakes here as far as i could tell. was up and out before 7 to hit the store. chilly though, 35

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48 minutes ago, Zanclidae said:

Saw flakes on the security cameras.

Nothing really unusual for April here though.

I believe it was mid April 2014 where we were near 80 and the next evening we had a coating on the deck.  Quarter inch even.

But it's spring, the forsythias are green and buds are popping everywhere.  Time to start thinking ahead for 20-21 winter.

Maybe we'll see some legit tropical or if we have a real heatwave another derecho.  We missed out on that one here but the lightshow was fun.

During the past 40 years, I have never had two very low snowfall winters consecutively.  Something to look forward next year.

.5" of snow last night with 33 degrees.  1 - 3 inches on the surrounding mountains.

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5 minutes ago, stormy said:

During the past 40 years, I have never had two very low snowfall winters consecutively.  Something to look forward next year.

I don’t think it’s possible to get less than 1.5” again next year. At least it better not be possible.

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2 hours ago, Rhino16 said:

I don’t think it’s possible to get less than 1.5” again next year. At least it better not be possible.

My total this winter was 5.2".

The lowest total was 1991-92 at 3.10". The following winter came in at 36.5".   Next is 1980-81 at 3.20" followed by 34.5" in 81-82.   2016-17 yielded 4.50" followed by 18.4" in 17-18.  2001- 02 came in with 5.50" followed by 35.50" in 02-03.

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1 hour ago, stormy said:

My total this winter was 5.2".

The lowest total was 1991-92 at 3.10". The following winter came in at 36.5".   Next is 1980-81 at 3.20" followed by 34.5" in 81-82.   2016-17 yielded 4.50" followed by 18.4" in 17-18.  2001- 02 came in with 5.50" followed by 35.50" in 02-03.

Yea but that just meant you’re due to have back to back awful years! 

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GFS day 8  has a major noreaster with some snow in Garret county. CMC  is even colder but suppressed.

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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea but that just meant you’re due to have back to back awful years! 

I feel quite comfortable with a near 0% probability.

Thanks for your interest!   Have a great day!!

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2 hours ago, stormy said:

I feel quite comfortable with a near 0% probability.

Thanks for your interest!   Have a great day!!

Lol at you thinking you have a 0% chance of a crappy year next year. 

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Lol at you thinking you have a 0% chance of a crappy year next year. 

Based on the last 40 years, that is a reasonable assumption.

What is your assumption otherwise????   LOL in advance......

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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Lol at you thinking you have a 0% chance of a crappy year next year. 

Mod to strong Nina? Yeah, not a year to get hopes up. That said, hard to be as bad as this past winter. But possible. But I’m all in on the nino 21-22 winter.

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21 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Mod to strong Nina? Yeah, not a year to get hopes up. That said, hard to be as bad as this past winter. But possible. But I’m all in on the nino 21-22 winter.

Just hoping for another random bomb cyclone I can chase.

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46 minutes ago, stormy said:

Based on the last 40 years, that is a reasonable assumption.

What is your assumption otherwise????   LOL in advance......

I don’t have an assumption.  A statistical analysis shows we have roughly the same chance at a particular result every year regardless of the previous year. When people say things like “we’ve never had that sequence before” it’s almost always just the result of the lack of two relatively rare events happening too many times consecutively in a small sample size. But a closer look at longer recorded periods shows that once you get on anomalous season the odds of another the following year are the same. Yea it is unlikely to get   an anomalous result multiple times but once you get on anomaly the odds of it happening again next year are no different than it was going into this year and eventually 2 of those years will happen back to back. For example the odds of flipping 5 heads in a row is 3%. But each flip is 50/50. Once you have rolled 4 heads the odds of the 5th is no longer 3%. It’s now still 50/50 you get a heads next flip and complete the 5/5. The odds of each flip are not impacted by the other flips. 

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2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Not sure you can get a winter worse than the past winter. At least a northern stream winter might be closer to normal temps provided we don’t get a blistering southeast ridge

I agree. This was by far the worst winter in Smithsburg over the last 20 years that ive lived here. Even in the crap years when dca post 1.8 " for the season I still get my  10 to 15 up here.

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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t have an assumption.  A statistical analysis shows we have roughly the same chance at a particular result every year regardless of the previous year. When people say things like “we’ve never had that sequence before” it’s almost always just the result of the lack of two relatively rare events happening too many times consecutively in a small sample size. But a closer look at longer recorded periods shows that once you get on anomalous season the odds of another the following year are the same. Yea it is unlikely to get   an anomalous result multiple times but once you get on anomaly the odds of it happening again next year are no different than it was going into this year and eventually 2 of those years will happen back to back. For example the odds of flipping 5 heads in a row is 3%. But each flip is 50/50. Once you have rolled 4 heads the odds of the 5th is no longer 3%. It’s now still 50/50 you get a heads next flip and complete the 5/5. The odds of each flip are not impacted by the other flips. 

Well then the odds of the next two Winters sucking is low

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4 hours ago, peribonca said:

Well then the odds of the next two Winters sucking is low

Yes but only because the odds of any one winter being as bad as last year is relatively low. It’s not any lower because we just had a crappy one and it’s nowhere near the “nearly 0” stormy asserted. It’s probably closer to about 5%. But the odds of getting an only slightly better but still really crappy snowfall result next year is significantly higher (about 50%) maybe higher given the likelyness of a Nina.  Those odds improve some for places west of the fall line where really awful snowless winters are more rare but still not as low as stormy seems to think. 

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13 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t have an assumption.  A statistical analysis shows we have roughly the same chance at a particular result every year regardless of the previous year. When people say things like “we’ve never had that sequence before” it’s almost always just the result of the lack of two relatively rare events happening too many times consecutively in a small sample size. But a closer look at longer recorded periods shows that once you get on anomalous season the odds of another the following year are the same. Yea it is unlikely to get   an anomalous result multiple times but once you get on anomaly the odds of it happening again next year are no different than it was going into this year and eventually 2 of those years will happen back to back. For example the odds of flipping 5 heads in a row is 3%. But each flip is 50/50. Once you have rolled 4 heads the odds of the 5th is no longer 3%. It’s now still 50/50 you get a heads next flip and complete the 5/5. The odds of each flip are not impacted by the other flips. 

I agree when you say the odds of each flip are not affected by the other flips.   But, I have observed a 75% likely aberration of flipping to above normal snowfall the year after well below normal snowfall. Two of those 4 above normal winters had a neutral Enso condition. One was a weak La Nina at - .9c. One was a weak El Nino at +.9c.

This past winter gave well below normal snowfall with a neutral to slightly positive Enso. at 0.0 to + 0.5  Enso based predictions would have been anomalously above actuality.

Next winter enso? We don't know, latest CPC probabilities issued March 19:  37% neutral,  31% La Nina,  32% El Nino

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2 hours ago, stormy said:

I agree when you say the odds of each flip are not affected by the other flips.   But, I have observed a 75% likely aberration of flipping to above normal snowfall the year after well below normal snowfall. Two of those 4 above normal winters had a neutral Enso condition. One was a weak La Nina at - .9c. One was a weak El Nino at +.9c.

This past winter gave well below normal snowfall with a neutral to slightly positive Enso. at 0.0 to + 0.5  Enso based predictions would have been anomalously above actuality.

Next winter enso? We don't know, latest CPC probabilities issued March 19:  37% neutral,  31% La Nina,  32% El Nino

A sample size of 4 lacks any statistical significance.  A longer look at data in mid atlantic stations that have over 100 years of records shows the odds of above/below normal snowfall each season is not affected much by the previous seasons results.  We can have several above normal seasons in a row (2014-2016) and there have been runs of more than 5 crap years in a row also.  

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Freeze warnings up from LWX.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
119 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2020

MDZ003>006-503-505-507-508-VAZ025>031-039-040-050>052-055-056-501-
502-505>508-WVZ051>053-170130-
/O.UPG.KLWX.FZ.A.0003.200417T0400Z-200417T1300Z/
/O.NEW.KLWX.FZ.W.0003.200417T0400Z-200417T1300Z/
Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-
Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-
Southeast Harford-Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-
Warren-Clarke-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-
Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Stafford-Spotsylvania-
Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-
Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-
Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-
Including the cities of Hagerstown, Frederick, Ballenger Creek,
Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Germantown,
Damascus, Lisbon, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Staunton, Waynesboro,
Stuarts Draft, Harrisonburg, Strasburg, Woodstock, Mount Jackson,
New Market, Winchester, Luray, Shenandoah, Stanley, Front Royal,
Berryville, Madison, Washington, Orange, Gordonsville, Culpeper,
Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Falmouth,
Fredericksburg, Warrenton, Turnbull, Purcellville, Leesburg,
Ashburn, Sterling, Big Meadows, Wintergreen, Paw Paw,
Martinsburg, Charles Town, and Shepherdstown
119 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2020

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 30 expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central and northern Maryland, central,
  northern, and western Virginia and eastern West Virginia.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will damage sensitive
  crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage
  unprotected outdoor plumbing.

 

 

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Freeze watches also, extending into SE PA, across the Eastern Shore, and into NJ, also some areas north of Richmond.

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