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George BM

April Discobs 2020

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20 minutes ago, H2O said:

It was clogged but no water in the gauge so it did drain.  Could be something on the see saw part.  Its an old VP2.  Hand me down from Aviation Dave.

Actually had the same issue the other day.  Had a dense spiderweb under the cup holding it down....One of those webs that almost look like spun wool. 

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my stations solar panel wont hold a charge anymore, was just gonna send it off and then corona happened. so just living with 12hr data at this point lol 

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2 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I never heard or saw it rain hard and thought this was a bust, but .88" in the gauge as of 7AM.

Was a pretty light rain here last evening into the night, maybe a third of an inch when I went to bed. Really got going here in the early morning hours. Probably picked up 1.5"+ after 3 am.

Total was 2.27". Hope my yard is not the 'winner' for the weekend event.

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3 hours ago, H2O said:

It was clogged but no water in the gauge so it did drain.  Could be something on the see saw part.  Its an old VP2.  Hand me down from Aviation Dave.

I had a single pine needle once that stopped the tipping bucket from working.

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20 hours ago, mappy said:

my stations solar panel wont hold a charge anymore, was just gonna send it off and then corona happened. so just living with 12hr data at this point lol 

The solar unit on my Davis outdoor unit is probably approaching it's last leg too.  At the point I'm having to replace the backup battery with increasing frequency as it takes on more of the load.  Dunno why Davis doesn't put glass over the solar array.  Any plastic cover like they use will craze over with time as the plasticizers in the plastic cover outgas and becomes brittle.  A glass cover would last nearly indefinitely and would not add that much to the overall cost.  

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15 minutes ago, RDM said:

The solar unit on my Davis outdoor unit is probably approaching it's last leg too.  At the point I'm having to replace the backup battery with increasing frequency as it takes on more of the load.  Dunno why Davis doesn't put glass over the solar array.  Any plastic cover like they use will craze over with time as the plasticizers in the plastic cover outgas and becomes brittle.  A glass cover would last nearly indefinitely and would not add that much to the overall cost.  

Yeah yours is going up, I went through the same issue for a long while. Had to replace batteries every 6months, then every 3 months, then monthly and now I would have to change them daily to keep it on overnight. Cost isn’t bad, I just gotta send it. But then corona happened...

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:raining:

Quote
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Tuesday should be mostly dry under high pressure. An amplifying/deepening
trof over the mid section of the country Tue evening is expected to
evolve into a deep closed 500 mb low over the mid-MS Valley Wed and
track slowly across the eastern states through the second half of
next week. Associated sfc low is expected to develop over the Upper
Midwest Tue and track across the lower Great Lks through the
middle of the week. Very large spread is seen among the global
models with respect to speed/timing of the sfc and upper system
moving across the East with Euro the slowest and showing the
entire system taking nearly 24 hrs more to move across than the
rest of the guidance. Euro`s solution is very concerning for
flooding potential given its very slow movement, strong upper
level divergence, and deep moisture plume over the region over
increasingly soggy soils. Latest 00Z EPS 90th percentile show
upwards of 5+ inches of rain over the next 7 days indicating a
heightened risk of flooding with potential for 2.5-3.5 inches
with second system Wed night-Thu. We should eventually dry out
by next weekend, but may still be dealing with some flooding.

 

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Rain total for the month so far is 4.5"

Should be over 6 by Monday, with more to come mid week.

Hope I did enough larvicide. :yikes:

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3 hours ago, RDM said:

The solar unit on my Davis outdoor unit is probably approaching it's last leg too.  At the point I'm having to replace the backup battery with increasing frequency as it takes on more of the load.  Dunno why Davis doesn't put glass over the solar array.  Any plastic cover like they use will craze over with time as the plasticizers in the plastic cover outgas and becomes brittle.  A glass cover would last nearly indefinitely and would not add that much to the overall cost.  

Yes it would, but that would then defeat their purpose of you needing parts OR a new unit every 3-6 years......

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1 hour ago, osfan24 said:

3K NAM had looked pretty impressive for tomorrow morning and then the latest run barely brings in any rain.

The american models have been nothing short of horrible lately predicting rainfall amounts. They have either been to low or high on amounts. 

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Looking much better(if you don't want heavy rain)

Mount Holly AFD-

Rain Amounts/flooding threat: The threat for heavy rain and flooding has decreased from yesterday`s guidance (this trend started with the 00Z model run and continued this morning). Precipitable water values are near normal, and with the low level southerly jet off shore or south of our area for almost all of the event, there looks to be limited opportunity for moisture transport during the event. At this point, we are forecasting rain amounts between 0.75 and 1.25 inches, which shouldn`t be enough to cause widespread flooding issues. As mentioned by the previous shift though, higher amounts and higher rain rates will be possible with any convection on Sunday, though the prime area for this convection at this point coincides with areas with sandy soils (and thus less prone to flash flooding). We will continue to monitor this, but the threat for flooding looks to be limited at this point.

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12 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Looking much better(if you don't want heavy rain)

Mount Holly AFD-

Rain Amounts/flooding threat: The threat for heavy rain and flooding has decreased from yesterday`s guidance (this trend started with the 00Z model run and continued this morning). Precipitable water values are near normal, and with the low level southerly jet off shore or south of our area for almost all of the event, there looks to be limited opportunity for moisture transport during the event. At this point, we are forecasting rain amounts between 0.75 and 1.25 inches, which shouldn`t be enough to cause widespread flooding issues. As mentioned by the previous shift though, higher amounts and higher rain rates will be possible with any convection on Sunday, though the prime area for this convection at this point coincides with areas with sandy soils (and thus less prone to flash flooding). We will continue to monitor this, but the threat for flooding looks to be limited at this point.

Now that they have said that we will actually get the heavy rain. :lol:

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1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

Now that they have said that we will actually get the heavy rain. :lol:

Probably.

I am ok with an inch, after getting over 2 a day or so ago.

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2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Probably.

I am ok with an inch, after getting over 2 a day or so ago.

The funny thing is I don't remember the models showing that much for your area, they had the heaviest rains further north. I actually wound up with less then the models were showing in my area. 

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Just now, Rtd208 said:

The funny thing is I don't remember the models showing that much for your area, they had the heaviest rains further north. I actually wound up with less then the models were showing in my area. 

Most of the CAMs did. Euro might have too, but I don't look at that on the free sites this time of year- lack of interest. Mt Holly nailed it in their forecast actually. Had 1-2 inches for Thurs night/Fri morning on my point/click, in addition to what fell earlier. Models had a strong LLJ over the coastal plain and a secondary wave also formed.

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16 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Most of the CAMs did. Euro might have too, but I don't look at that on the free sites this time of year- lack of interest. Mt Holly nailed it in their forecast actually. Had 1-2 inches for Thurs night/Fri morning on my point/click, in addition to what fell earlier. Models had a strong LLJ over the coastal plain and a secondary wave also formed.

I can tell you it was a fail up in this area. The forecast was for 1.00-1.50"+, I had a storm total of 0.64". I also should have been more specific as I don't recall the NAM/GFS showing those amounts for your area. I guess we will see what tonight/tomorrow brings.

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12 hours ago, RDM said:

The solar unit on my Davis outdoor unit is probably approaching it's last leg too.  At the point I'm having to replace the backup battery with increasing frequency as it takes on more of the load.  Dunno why Davis doesn't put glass over the solar array.  Any plastic cover like they use will craze over with time as the plasticizers in the plastic cover outgas and becomes brittle.  A glass cover would last nearly indefinitely and would not add that much to the overall cost.  

I have been having to replace my back up battery more often as well. 

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11 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I thought the heavy rain/flooding threat was for midweek and not this weekend?

There was always a chance for this weekend but it also depended on how the Thursday night/Friday system performed. The more rain you received then the better chances you may have at seeing some flood issues tomorrow. Right now it looks like a low end chance. 

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As Mount Holly suggested, the good juice with the LLJ is mostly offshore.(per models a few days ago, this was the primary heavy rain threat for I/95 and the coastal plain). Not even a tenth of an inch here, and unless the area gets into the warm sector with some potential convection later, probably not much more than some general showers around for the day. Not that I am complaining. Been wet enough in my yard lately.

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I just noticed that ECMWF soundings are now behind a paywall on PivotalWx.

Wow, what a game changer! :gun_bandana::arrowhead::blahblah:

 

 

 

 

Currently the temperature is 50 degrees with light rain/drizzle at IAD.

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Only 0.3” ish here.  Currently drizzle and chilly.  Need some sunny, not windy, 70s soon!

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11 hours ago, Mrs.J said:

I have been having to replace my back up battery more often as well. 

Good morning, If you haven't done so already, try cleaning the solar array with a rag and water periodically (if you can easily access it).  Suggest not using windex or anything with a solvent in it.  The ammonia may do more harm than good on the plastic cover over the array.  I clean mine every couple months now.  It helps some, or so it seems.  But the cloudiness of the plastic cover is getting worse and at some point I'll need to have the array replaced (if that's an option) or just buy a new unit.  Davis is probably betting on the 2nd option on purpose.  

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