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George BM

April Discobs 2020

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11 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

For now. What will it look like by the time it arrives?

The forecasts have been pretty good this period.  The weather has just been subpar.  I will note that the GFS is better for Saturday than Sunday.  Euro likes Sunday more.

 

 

 

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10 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

The forecasts have been pretty good this period.  The weather has just been subpar.  I will note that the GFS is better for Saturday than Sunday.  Euro likes Sunday more.

 

 

 

Can’t speak to general forecast accuracy but they all missed yesterday at 4 days out. 100%. Seems like rain always sneaks in the closer we get to these forecast nice days.

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turned into a nice day.  the temps and humidity combo > the chilly/damp we've had.  looks to be setting up for the soaker tomorrow.

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1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 


Don’t know what this metric is for flooding, but a flood event in Arlington would be some excitement I don’t need right now! At least it’s a super easy chase.

I know topography and etc play a roll when it comes to flooding but based on possible amounts East of DC some areas could see 2-4 inches but yet that map depicts a low chance of flooding there. That doesn’t make much sense. 

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8 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

The sun was nice this morning while it lasted.  Sunday looks stellar.

Not looking forward to after Sunday as LWX AFD says temps go back into upper 50s and low 60s with more rain :axe:

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1 minute ago, yoda said:

Not looking forward to after Sunday as LWX AFD says temps go back into upper 50s and low 60s with more rain :axe:

Not sure the latest EPS but looks chilly.

Image

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6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Looks coolish next week, but not super rainy.

Well sun is nice... but 55 to 65 degrees sucks.  Its May, not October

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Well sun is nice... but 55 to 65 degrees sucks.  Its May, not October

I’ve been jogging to try and stay in shape, and today was hot. Sweating horribly after just a couple minutes. It can stay 55-65 as long as it wants, IMO.
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1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

CPC has below normal temps 8-14.  Darkest purple.  Where was this in January?  

Yup... 70 percent chance of below normal

814temp_new.thumb.gif.626f0f546065c1916ecd07debd4b0283.gif

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1 hour ago, jewell2188 said:

I know topography and etc play a roll when it comes to flooding but based on possible amounts East of DC some areas could see 2-4 inches but yet that map depicts a low chance of flooding there. That doesn’t make much sense. 

It takes a lot to get flooding over here. Its quite flat, and the soil is generally well drained. It does happen though, but it takes some seriously heavy rain over the same areas to legit flood. And then it recedes pretty quickly.

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30 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Big wind gusts the last few hours.

Southerly flow... wind gusts of 30 to 40 expected tonight per the AFD

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Unless I'm missing something, it looks like this system is really not that moisture laden.  A lot of the guidance now seems struggle to get anyone over an inch of rain and it's out of here pretty quick.  

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16 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Unless I'm missing something, it looks like this system is really not that moisture laden.  A lot of the guidance now seems struggle to get anyone over an inch of rain and it's out of here pretty quick.  

LWX didn't seem to agree with your take in their tweet half an hour ago

https://mobile.twitter.com/NWS_BaltWash/status/1255657936128315395

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1 hour ago, yoda said:

Southerly flow... wind gusts of 30 to 40 expected tonight per the AFD

If I had to guess it was 40 mph gusts a couple hours ago. Trash cans blowing all over the place. Lol

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11 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Global cooling B)

Tom tasselmeyer, local Baltimore tv met, said this past week was the first time with 7 days below normal  in a row at BWI since March 2019. Any guesses on how many 7+ day streaks of above normal since then? :yikes:

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