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George BM

April Discobs 2020

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9 hours ago, Potvinsux said:

Thought the last snowfall here in Snowshoe was the end of winter, then another arrived this morning.  About 1/2" and 29°.

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Nice pics.  Denis Potvin is the GOAT though. 

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3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

We’ve basically had six straight months of November

Great way to look at it.  I fear we will make up for this -NAO cool spell in a month or so and pay the price with AN temps for a while...  

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27 minutes ago, RDM said:

Great way to look at it.  I fear we will make up for this -NAO cool spell in a month or so and pay the price with AN temps for a while...  

We paid that price - that was dec - feb

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3 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Maybe we can get lucky and get some effing rain LOL.

We don’t get some sun soon and I’m gonna lose it.

Looks like by the weekend we may see a change if the forecast stays... 70 to 75 degrees and some sun

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6 hours ago, nj2va said:

Oh look, another dreary chilly day.

I actually thought it was a decent day. Cloudy at times including now but there was a period where it was fairly sunny and felt good out. At least here anyway 

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9 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

I actually thought it was a decent day. Cloudy at times including now but there was a period where it was fairly sunny and felt good out. At least here anyway 

Quite the opposite.  Been cloudy & chilly all day....and actually its been raining for a good portion of the day.

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59 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Looks like WPC bumped up the DY 1-3 QPF to 2"+ from US15 east.

Sounds like LWX is holding off the issuance of any FW/FFW until the early morning update (the 3/4 am time period)

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The next system looking impressive on guidance currently.

From Mount Holly

Quote

The system continues to trend slower and actually expect through most of the day this heavy rain should stay off to our west until it approaches and moves in late day. Ahead of it, there will continue to be some lighter rain/showers but the bigger concern during the day looks to be gusty southerly winds. LLJ at 925 mb looks to be 50+ knots but the question is how much of this can mix down. Think 30-40+ mph gusts should be doable for most areas near and south of the Fall Line but the GFS indicates even stronger winds may possible with gusts over 50 mph possible so this will have to be watched closely.

Quote

The main concern for very heavy rain looks to be late day Thursday (most likely after 20z or so) through Thursday evening into the overnight as the south/north oriented front approaches from the west and eventually moves through while a secondary low develops along it. Expect this to bring with it the plume of moderate to heavy rainfall associated with the deep moisture feed from the south. PWATs look to be 1.25 to 1.5 inches associated with the strong LLJ and there will likely be a training pattern to the precip as it moves south to north ahead of front. The upshot is that the rain may be heavy enough Thursday night to result in hydro issues that could be more than just "run of the mill" type problems.

 

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On Saturday I made a tee time for today because my NWS forecast was sunny and 64. Reality was an all day rain and temps in the mid 40’s. Now I’m not making this post as some type of criticism. I’m just marveling at the fact that we NEVER get a surprise precip event with much below forecast temps in winter. It seems we never get that surprise snow event. Just think how fun it would be to have that happen just occasionally.

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1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

On Saturday I made a tee time for today because my NWS forecast was sunny and 64. Reality was an all day rain and temps in the mid 40’s. Now I’m not making this post as some type of criticism. I’m just marveling at the fact that we NEVER get a surprise precip event with much below forecast temps in winter. It seems we never get that surprise snow event. Just think how fun it would be to have that happen just occasionally.

It's the nature of this area that the only 'surprise' events we generally see are complete suckage.

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18 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It's the nature of this area that the only 'surprise' events we generally see are complete suckage.

Normally it the surprise 35 and rain instead of the 2 to 4 of snow that was forecasted lol.

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1 hour ago, Chris78 said:

Normally it the surprise 35 and rain instead of the 2 to 4 of snow that was forecasted lol.

Will May 11th work for 2-4" :lol:

 

PhotoPictureResizer_200428_203409517_crop_855x566.jpg

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8 hours ago, yoda said:

What is CONSALL guidance?  LWX evening AFD update mentions it... never heard of it before

CONSAll is a blend of all available deterministic models and guidance.

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really looking forward to the weekend. and power washing. 

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2 minutes ago, mappy said:

really looking forward to the weekend. and power washing. 

The lawn mowers will be going full force this weekend.

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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The lawn mowers will be going full force this weekend.

yeah, i told the hubs if he needed to mow, to do it today. otherwise, he will have to wait a few days. 

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