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Tim from Springfield (IL)

March 26-28 Severe Threat

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ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
601 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2020  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHWESTERN NEW MADRID COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...  
  
* UNTIL 630 PM CDT.  
  
* AT 600 PM CDT, WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A RAIN WRAPPED TORNADO   
  NORTHWEST OF KENNETT. THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING A   
  TORNADO. THE STORM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CLARKTON, OR 8 MILES   
  SOUTHEAST OF CAMPBELL, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.  
  

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I think it's fair to say this won't be what it could have been in the IL area, but we'll see how much action we can manage to get.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
451 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
451 PM CDT

Starting to see some gradual intensification of the convection over
western IL in the western fringes of the warm conveyor belt. Recent
21z sounding from ILX shows the presence of a very shallow cool
surface stable layer beneath a stout inversion just below 925 mb.
Convection developing within that warm conveyor belt is likely
elevated, though radar and satellite trends suggest the storms in
west central IL are probably growing closer to becoming rooted in
the boundary layer. Given the widespread cloud cover, its looking
unlikely that we will be able to erode the cap through insolation.
However, increasing ascent associated with the approaching cyclone
will likely gradually cool that warm layer through ascent leading to
a better environment for storms to become rooted in the boundary
layer. RAP suggests this ascent should erode the cap into our far
west and southwestern CWA closer to the 23-00z time frame.

There is still some threat for elevated storms with an attendant
severe hail threat prior to this cap eroding. Once the cap is more
eroded, the very favorable deep and low level shear environment will
be quite favorable for tornadic supercells, given the presence of
discrete cells. It seems likely that the current storms over west
central IL will race quickly into an environment characterized by a
fairly strongly stable boundary layer. However, any additional
discrete cells that form either along the Pacific cold front or in
the warm sector out ahead of the front that move into the area once
the boundary layer inhibition is lessened in a couple hours will
pose a more substantial tornado threat. The window for greater
significant tornado potential over our CWA looks to be where the PDS
tornado watch is in effect between 23z and about 01z or perhaps 02z.

Beyond 01-02z, the potential for storms to become closer to boundary
layer rooted into areas east and northeast of the current tornado
watch will increase. However, some slight cooling of the boundary
layer by mid-late evening could begin to limit the tornado
potential. Given the dynamic nature of the system, cannot rule out
temps getting a bit warmer than progged this evening and leading to
a better tornado threat. Something to watch, but if latest RAP and
HRRR are a perfect prog (unlikely) it would suggest that the tornado
threat would be fairly low into the Chicago metro area and far NW
IN.

- Izzi
  • Weenie 1

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992 surface low in central IA, 550-600 0-3km helicity now spreading over the PDS watch area in IL, 7/75 mid level lapse rates, and mid to upper 60's dew points from the St. Louis area and southern IL up to Champaign Urbana.      It ain't over till it's over.

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Doubling back there now . . .

Was through Roseville with the first tornado warning 2 hours ago.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

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12 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Luckily so far only 3 injuries in Jonesboro.

Way way way too early on this.

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Numerous tornado warnings in progress. A pair of discrete supercells in W IL, things getting going — took longer than we all anticipated, but things are happening...

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new watch pretty strongly worded

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 71  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
635 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2020  
  
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF   
  FAR EASTERN ARKANSAS  
  FAR SOUTHWEST INDIANA  
  WESTERN KENTUCKY  
  MISSOURI BOOTHELL  
  NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI  
  WESTERN TENNESSEE  
  
* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 635 PM  
  UNTIL 200 AM CDT.  
  
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...  
  A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE  
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY  
  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE 

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There could be a CC drop representative of a TDS near Kirkwood, Illinois.

Could be wrong, but I don’t see it. Doesn’t seem to line up with the velocity scans/rotation — which is super limited

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3 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Way way way too early on this.

Sorry just going by local current radio reports around the area that are talking to hospitals.

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1 minute ago, Stebo said:

Way way way too early on this.

Yeah, it's a good sign but it's still early.  You know the ones that have multiple deaths reported almost right after the tornado passes are going to be really bad... like Joplin.

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