jojo762 Posted March 28, 2020 Would expect some pretty drastic changes to the 20Z outlook with respect to the ENH and MDT risk areas. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
twistingtornado Posted March 28, 2020 Yes, PDS tornado watches can occur outside high risk. I've seen PDS tornado watches in moderate risk areas. I would be confounded if that happened today, but it's not like I'm in agreement with the SPC's products today. Definitely don't agree with their assessment of long track tornadoes from south central Missouri into Illinois. They're neglecting the wind profiles again which don't become favorable until the cells get into northeastern Missouri/Illinois. If there's a long track tornado in central to eastern Missouri, I'll eat my heart out. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Quincy Posted March 28, 2020 1 minute ago, twistingtornado said: Yes, PDS tornado watches can occur outside high risk. I've seen PDS tornado watches in moderate risk areas. I would be confounded if that happened today, but it's not like I'm in agreement with the SPC's products today. Definitely don't agree with their assessment of long track tornadoes from south central Missouri into Illinois. They're neglecting the wind profiles again which don't become favorable until the cells get into northeastern Missouri/Illinois. If there's a long track tornado in central to eastern Missouri, I'll eat my heart out. The LSX / STL area vertical wind profile has improved quite a bit as the low-level jet has started backing. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
janetjanet998 Posted March 28, 2020 triple point BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 224 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA... SOUTH CENTRAL GUTHRIE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA... NORTHEASTERN ADAIR COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN IOWA... * UNTIL 300 PM CDT. * AT 224 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR GREENFIELD, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jackstraw Posted March 28, 2020 Froggy cell in IA Tor warned now Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Castaway Posted March 28, 2020 Looking at the radar, it seems like it’s starting to unzip in central Missouri. Seems to be the start where the possible/would be string of pearls going over the Mississippi River in an hour or 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
twistingtornado Posted March 28, 2020 I'm more concerned with what's happening in the 1-3 km layer in the wind profiles. Namely, backing. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
andyhb Posted March 28, 2020 19 minutes ago, twistingtornado said: Yes, PDS tornado watches can occur outside high risk. I've seen PDS tornado watches in moderate risk areas. I would be confounded if that happened today, but it's not like I'm in agreement with the SPC's products today. Definitely don't agree with their assessment of long track tornadoes from south central Missouri into Illinois. They're neglecting the wind profiles again which don't become favorable until the cells get into northeastern Missouri/Illinois. If there's a long track tornado in central to eastern Missouri, I'll eat my heart out. Look at the VWP from DMX before deciding that. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WeatherMonger Posted March 28, 2020 DVN and ILX 18Z soundings Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jojo762 Posted March 28, 2020 1 minute ago, andyhb said: Look at the VWP from DMX before deciding that. For posterity.. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
janetjanet998 Posted March 28, 2020 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 69 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 240 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2020 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI * EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 240 PM UNTIL 900 PM CDT. ..THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jojo762 Posted March 28, 2020 KDVN VWP currently exhibits 84kt 0-6km shear coupled with ~400m^2/s^2 0-1KM SRH... Assuming the wind profile is similar in SE IA south of the warm front, the atmosphere is absolutely primed for discrete supercells capable of producing numerous significant tornadoes. EDIT: 90/80 probs on that PDS watch. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
yoda Posted March 28, 2020 PDS TOR watch issued Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
METALSTORM Posted March 28, 2020 31 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: And even if you don't have a PDS watch you can still get violent tornadoes. Only need to go back to the memorial day tornado outbreak as evidence of that. Or Nashville and Cookeville as much more recent examples. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
yoda Posted March 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 69 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 240 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2020 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI * EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 240 PM UNTIL 900 PM CDT. ..THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE Decent size PDS TOR watch box Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
yoda Posted March 28, 2020 Tor probs are 90/80 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
andyhb Posted March 28, 2020 Instability worse than forecast, shear better than forecast. Question is which one wins. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WeatherMonger Posted March 28, 2020 No MD for upgrade to High Risk, will they pull the trigger at 20Z? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Chicago Storm Posted March 28, 2020 DP's have actually been falling across S-SE IA and NE MO. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Indystorm Posted March 28, 2020 1 minute ago, andyhb said: Instability worse than forecast, shear better than forecast. Question is which one wins. This is certainly not a typical spring low CAPE, high shear event, but I wonder what has transpired with contrasting parameters like this in the past. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
thomp2mp Posted March 28, 2020 Kind of out of our coverage area, but the cell approaching the Pittsburgh area is hookin' Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CoalCityWxMan Posted March 28, 2020 Apparently there’s a high risk incoming...hm Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Chicago Storm Posted March 28, 2020 CU is sparse and struggling to maintain south of US-36 in MO. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Indystorm Posted March 28, 2020 Just now, thomp2mp said: Kind of out of our coverage area, but the cell approaching the Pittsburgh area is hookin' And that was shown on one of the HRRR runs I saw last evening. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
geddyweather Posted March 28, 2020 Just now, thomp2mp said: Kind of out of our coverage area, but the cell approaching the Pittsburgh area is hookin' TOR Warning there now. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
janetjanet998 Posted March 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: DP's have actually been falling across S-SE IA and NE MO. yes they mixed out some...but seem a little higher towards the MS river... storms near MS river still struggling to organize It could be that there is too much shear and not enough instability? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jojo762 Posted March 28, 2020 Just now, Chicago Storm said: CU is sparse and struggling to maintain south of US-36 in MO. That'll probably change in the next couple hours. Better forcing is still lagging the dryline/PCF, evident by the CU field across E KS. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RyanDe680 Posted March 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: CU is sparse and struggling to maintain south of US-36 in MO. Just can’t see where this is going to develop to PDFs degree Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
geddyweather Posted March 28, 2020 20z gonna be late. Weeeeeee. Meanwhile, interesting looking cell trying to take shape NW of Indy along the warm front. Getting to the time of the day where wind profiles in this area were going to start growing more favorable IIRC. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
A-L-E-K Posted March 28, 2020 Cold and foggy, think I just saw a flurry 1 3 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
