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North of HPN here...had a coating this morning and mood flakes.  Then misty rain mid morning wiped out the coating, but the recent burst and hour ago had parachute flakes and a new coating which is hanging on in some spots.  

 

Edit drizzle right now...

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58 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s been a while since we had a +5SD block near Greenland. 
 

FA555786-7783-4661-871E-C07B99B25444.thumb.jpeg.4793da4195359054fdbb3dbc82a5f039.jpeg

 

Still looks like a strong SE Ridge on that map....

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16 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Still looks like a strong SE Ridge on that map....

Plenty of easterly flow the next 5 days as the New England high remains in place. Maybe we can sneak in a warmer day beyond that if the SE Ridge can flex.

71FEE119-7471-4DCB-A495-E8A084FDCCBB.thumb.png.6d4f4be88e69aebd77e2518fd914382a.png

 

 

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Going to end with over a inch of rain here today. The wet times have arrived again 

2nd time in 5 days after going more than 3 months 

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Coastal regions saw rain occasionally mixed with snow. Across an area running from northeastern Pennsylvania, central New York State, and central New England, accumulating snow occurred. Snowfall will continue to accumulate in that area tonight.

Through early this evening, snowfall amounts included:

Albany: 0.2"; Binghamton: 2.4"; Boston: Trace; Bridgeport: Trace; Hartford: 0.9"; Islip: Trace; New York City: Trace; Newark: Trace; Providence: Trace; and, Worcester: 2.0"

Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) and Boston through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. It is increasingly likely that Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC have seen their last measurable snowfall of winter 2019-2020.

As a result, New York City is all but certain to finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869).

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around March 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through April.

The SOI was not available today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +4.288. That was above the daily record of +4.253, which was set in 1986.

A "final warming" stratospheric seasonal event will likely begin to develop during the last week of March.

On March 22, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.686 (RMM). The March 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.678.

A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case.

February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. There is an implied 80% probability that March 2020 will rank among the 10 warmest March cases on record. March will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature near 48.0°, which would rank as the 7th warmest March on record. 

Finally, in most cases following strong AO+ February and March periods, ridging is present in the East during April. Such an outcome would favor a warmer than normal April in much of the East. The CFSv2 has been shifting in that direction in recent days.

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11 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Still looks like a strong SE Ridge on that map....

Yep a -NAO and SE ridge can coexist, a common misconception is that it’s impossible to have -NAO and a SE ridge at the same time. That’s what some people don’t understand, they’ll see a -NAO block and think omg it’s going to be cold, not when a SE ridge is flexing underneath it it’s not....

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19 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Inland areas are looking good on the Euro

Wednesday is DOA even way inland. The Euro solution was bogus again just like the one it had last week for yesterday 

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2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Yep a -NAO and SE ridge can coexist, a common misconception is that it’s impossible to have -NAO and a SE ridge at the same time. That’s what some people don’t understand, they’ll see a -NAO block and think omg it’s going to be cold, not when a SE ridge is flexing underneath it it’s not....

SE ridge goes away on GEFS/EPS with large -NAO block in place. Late March and early April look cool/unsettled. 

Wouldn't be surprised to see it lasting a while. Plenty of easterly flow likely.

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The last 8 days of March are averaging 47.5degs., or 1.5degs. AN.

Month to date is +6.9[48.1].         March should end at +5.5[48.0].

The first 9 days of April are averaging +4.0[53.5] despite a neutral AO regime.

2020032400_054@007_E1_knyc_I_NAEFS@EPSGR

(37* at 4am.)        39* here 6am.      38* at 7am.         44* by 10am.        47* by Noon.       59* by 5pm.!,     56^by 6pm.

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2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Wednesday is DOA even way inland. The Euro solution was bogus again just like the one it had last week for yesterday 

I had a light sleet snow accumulation on the uws and non accumulating snow for a good portion of the day. I’m pretty sure you said that was impossible 

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4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I had a light sleet snow accumulation on the uws and non accumulating snow for a good portion of the day. I’m pretty sure you said that was impossible 

What does that have to do with Wednesday? And you got a trace of sleet and white rain, congrats! The snowstorm idea of several days ago was an epic fail just like most reasonable people knew it would be 

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5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

SE ridge goes away on GEFS/EPS with large -NAO block in place. Late March and early April look cool/unsettled. 

Wouldn't be surprised to see it lasting a while. Plenty of easterly flow likely.

It does not look like the past few April’s, the SE ridge is going to flex this time around with or without a -NAO

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56 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

A beautiful snow and sleet covered landscape this morning. 

Rob get your camera and take a photo or video because what you are looking at this morning happens so rarely it is like capturing BIGFOOT on film lol

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

It does not look like the past few April’s, the SE ridge is going to flex this time around with or without a -NAO

Maybe but I'm not seeing that right now. Also a SE ridge doesn't necessarily mean we're going to be warm either. 

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1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

A beautiful snow and sleet covered landscape this morning. 

Iced over good in the higher terrain.

trees are coated with ice. Never got above freezing.

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