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7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

One week away....Discuss

How come I never see you post during the summer?

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5 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Another +5 month incoming

Trace of snow on the 29th

At least 2 days above 75

Dry month <2"

Disagree...I think that T of snow falls on the 28th:huh: Otherwise I agree unfortunately.

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At this point in time, the base case is a warmer than normal March in such cities as Baltimore, Boston, Islip, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC.

Today was also the 5th day during February where the AO was +5.000 or above. Only 1989 (5 days) and 1990 (4 days) had at least 4 such days.

All of this suggests that the March hemispheric pattern could be somewhat similar in the means to the February one. That would imply a warmer than normal March in the region.

Further, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period.

Finally, the most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region.

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57 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

At this point in time, the base case is a warmer than normal March in such cities as Baltimore, Boston, Islip, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC.

Today was also the 5th day during February where the AO was +5.000 or above. Only 1989 (5 days) and 1990 (4 days) had at least 4 such days.

All of this suggests that the March hemispheric pattern could be somewhat similar in the means to the February one. That would imply a warmer than normal March in the region.

Further, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period.

Finally, the most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region.

And probably a wetter one IMO.

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11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

At this point in time, the base case is a warmer than normal March in such cities as Baltimore, Boston, Islip, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC.

Today was also the 5th day during February where the AO was +5.000 or above. Only 1989 (5 days) and 1990 (4 days) had at least 4 such days.

All of this suggests that the March hemispheric pattern could be somewhat similar in the means to the February one. That would imply a warmer than normal March in the region.

Further, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period.

Finally, the most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region.

Don, the models are showing the strongest SPV ever on record for March. If correct, wow. And it seems the CFS is continuing its correction warmer for next month as we get within a week to March 

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7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Looks warm after the first few days on the month. 

Yea, the warmup looks to start on 3/3 and possibly get very mild thereafter. So much for that theory about Dennis causing a long lasting full scale pattern flip....  

 

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9 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Looks warm after the first few days on the month. 

Time to wave goodbye to the non-winter of 19/20.

We were due for a true clunker. It can only get better next season.

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15 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Time to wave goodbye to the non-winter of 19/20.

We were due for a true clunker. It can only get better next season.

Well it certainly can't get much worse. What is this #4 on least snowy years in NYC? Then again we could be looking at a situation where a student gets a 28 on the first exam and improves to a 59 on the next exam. Big improvement but still failing. 

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Weeklies are a torch for mid month! Please be correct 

Yep, torch city by 3/15, trough dumped into the west, finally a mild March for a change....

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10 hours ago, Allsnow said:

The Geps, GEFS, and eps in good agreement With the torch around the 10th. 

Yep 

Its amazing how persistent the pattern is. You would think the pattern would change .

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On 2/24/2020 at 3:51 PM, Allsnow said:

Weeklies are a torch for mid month! Please be correct 

Why would you want warm weather this early? 

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Morning thoughts...

1. Prospects for a warmer to much warmer than normal March in the Middle Atlantic and New England areas have continued to increase.

2. The base case has long favored a warmer than normal March on account of such factors as the exceptionally strong polar vortex in February (which has a lingering influence on the March pattern), past strong AO+ regimes in February, and the recent warming of ENSO Region 1+2.

3. Modeling has evolved quite rapidly toward the warmer March idea (EPS weeklies and the CFSv2). Below is the evolution of the CFSv2 forecasts from February 19 through February 27 that illustrate this dramatic trend.

CFSv202272020.jpg

4. Evidence for an alternative cold scenario for March is almost non-existent.

5. March snowfall in the Middle Atlantic region remains on course to be below to much below normal.

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1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

It's done man, kaput. A little bit of cold and glop now would just be frustrating. Time to call it... 

This winter is already in the coffin. The only one who doesn’t think it’s over is Joe Bastardi

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1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

It's done man, kaput. A little bit of cold and glop now would just be frustrating. Time to call it... 

Bluewave posted this a couple of days ago. If NYC doesn't get another measurable snowfall this season it will be the earliest end to the accumulating snows in a season ever. That sounds about right, this has been historically bad, why not set the record.

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Eps continues with the 3/8 torch. Spring starts early this year. We all deserve it after this winter.

Huge signal from this far out to see a major post 3/8 torch. Would not be shocked at all to see 70 degree readings, we will have the equivalent of a September sun overhead at that point

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