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jburns

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

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7 minutes ago, Wow said:

Did I miss anything?

The GFS hates us and the NAM loves us. The Euro is stuck in a time warp black hole somewhere in the middle. 

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10 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Cold temps going north too, or we still good?

It's a package deal Mack - precip north / cold air north.  You and I went from being right were we want to be with the 12z NAM, to yikes, too amped with the 18z.  Great for the folks north of us though.  Let's see what happens going forward.  Need the big high pressure to come thru

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Some positives for the upstate with this system:

1. We aren't relying on a wedge front to arrive for low level temps.  Typically when we're waiting for a wedge front it's delayed. All the models have a brisk wedge front blowing through during the day on Wednesday. As such, the low level cold air feed is established well out ahead of this storm.  Another positive, models often miss dew point depressions/dry air when the wedge is in place, as it will be on Thursday for the upstate.

2. We aren't relying on rapidly crashing 850mb-900mb temperatures from northwest flow as the storm arrives.  The models have this air entrenched in our area and after wetbulbing gets most of the upstate to freezing or below on Thursday at these levels.  Might this level be too warm for snow anyways? YES! But it won't be because the mountains have blocked it's advancement.  Which is a battle we always lose.

Some negatives:

1. Several models show a lee-side minima for precipitation. I think this is b/c they have northerly low-level flow on the west side of the mountains, causing some subsidence at that surface as air drops over the peaks.  (Even though we have Northeasterly low level winds in the upstate, it appears there's a zone near the mountains that may be affected by downsloping. Especially in the NC foothills.  

2. It appears the southerly push from waa around 750mb is so robust on the NAM that it sends a warm nose over the upstate flipping us over to sleet/rain.  The upstate needs to hope the NAM is a little too aggressive in this regard,(which it probably is since it's on the extreme end of guidance, but you never know how hard that North trend is gonna hit!)

3. Some models are developing quite a coastal storm Thursday afternoon, if this consolidates quickly we could find ourselves in a precip minima between the initial frontogenesis forcing and the coastal low, (we've seen it happen before). Conversely, the icon swings a nice backside band from the coastal low through the upstate Thursday night, if that's true the coastal will have helped us. (very skeptical on our chances of this happening)

Final Thoughts:

I have little concern on whether the upstate gets appreciable precip. I am also not concerned about boundary layer issues given the Northeasterly low level winds forecasted well in advance of our storm.  My biggest concern at this moment is mid-level temps if this thing really gets cranking like the 18z NAM showed.  (I know it's early so don't take this as a prediction, these are just my gut feelings today).

 

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18z Bufkit is in: 

11.5" GSO
8" RDU(still snowing at 20:1 by 84)
7" DAN
5" FAY
1.4" HKY
1" CLT
0" GSP

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I love coming in here to say “I don’t know if a NW trend is possible” then logging back on to see the NAM has kicked a solid 80 miles north. NAM is a best case scenario where the energy out west *isnt* held back. Stay tuned to see if this becomes a globals vs high resolution situation

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3 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Some positives for the upstate with this system:

2. It appears the southerly push from waa around 750mb is so robust on the NAM that it sends a warm nose over the upstate flipping us over to sleet/rain.  The upstate needs to hope the NAM is a little too aggressive in this regard,(which it probably is since it's on the extreme end of guidance, but you never know how hard that North trend is gonna hit!)

.

 

That is what kills GSP and CLT on bufkit, they get SNRAPLed to death.

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burrel - I have a hard time buying a precip minimum just southeast of the Apps and a jump to the coast with this one.  Just my opinion.  I know we see that sometimes, but the trajectory of the precip and forcing is going to be more west to east in a continuous manner.  The precip minimum and jump to the coast is more common when we have a wave approaching and crossing the Apps from a NW trajectory.  Sure the eastern areas may get a precip boost, but I don't think a jump to the coast is in the offing here.

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23 minutes ago, griteater said:

It's a package deal Mack - precip north / cold air north.  You and I went from being right were we want to be with the 12z NAM, to yikes, too amped with the 18z.  Great for the folks north of us though.  Let's see what happens going forward.  Need the big high pressure to come thru

I'd take the 18Z all day for MBY.  I didn't move to Mooresville for nothing! lol. I got NAM'd!  

Although I don't buy it, it's interesting that the configuration of the precip seems consistent with the EPS, just heavier. 

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44 minutes ago, griteater said:

FYI a new thread was started for our blizzard late in the week

Now go look at the end of the 12z GFS where it has our next storm to kick off March - pattern actually ain’t too bad then 

I know it is way early but can anyone post this... I am interested to see what it looks like

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45 minutes ago, Buckfever2 said:

I know it is way early but can anyone post this... I am interested to see what it looks like

You can look here GFS and see the latest run. He's right. The pattern isn't bad, but we're heading into March so it would take something special to get some wintertime magic  ;)  #itsnotoveruntilitsover 

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Just yalls luck.

Blow through  Nov, Dec, Jan then winter decides to show up mid/late Feb to March.

Wonder if yall should be concerned April and May?

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Just now, FLweather said:

Just yalls luck.

Blow through  Nov, Dec, Jan then winter decides to show up mid/late Feb to March.

Wonder if yall should be concerned April and May?

Yeah that's the problem, for most the "cold" is too little for anything good by March. Looks like an NC winter incoming, everybody else just more of the same.

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23 minutes ago, griteater said:

Headlines - Spring put on hold / Eyewall gets hit again.  It's February 1989 all over again

RRndATx.png

eHfmeQ6.png

Just in time for my vacation flight out of Asheville... lol

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