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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020


jburns
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Just as an observation from a few previous winters, the 12K NAM's surface output often seems a bit odd and tends to overdo the QPF in quantity and spread it out over a massive region. I've hunted verification scores at 500 and surface between the different resolutions of the NAM, but I have not found any. 3KM NAM should give us more clarity once it is in range, I'm wary of this 12KM output.

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PRESS HGT(MSL) TEMP DEW PT  WND DIR  WND SPD
 HPA       M      C     C       DEG     M/S  
 E = Estimated Surface Height

 1011.   149.   -0.7   -1.4    34.5     4.1
 1000.   234.   -1.7   -2.2    37.7     6.3
  975.   435.   -3.4   -4.0    43.4     9.9
  950.   640.   -4.8   -5.6    46.1    11.6
  925.   849.   -4.4   -5.2    56.2    12.8
  900.  1065.   -4.4   -5.2    54.3    12.0
  875.  1287.   -5.2   -6.1    50.8    11.3
  850.  1514.   -5.8   -6.9    44.6     9.8
  825.  1748.   -6.5   -7.6    40.3     9.0
  800.  1988.   -6.6   -7.6    22.3     7.3
  775.  2237.   -4.8   -5.3   269.8     2.5
  750.  2497.   -1.9   -2.3   216.3    15.2
  725.  2767.   -1.6   -2.0   239.2    23.7
  700.  3046.   -2.4   -2.9   245.1    28.4
  650.  3631.   -5.7   -6.5   245.8    27.7
  600.  4254.   -9.7  -11.0   245.8    25.0
  550.  4921.  -12.9  -14.5   242.2    31.0
  500.  5642.  -16.9  -18.8   252.3    33.3
  450.  6426.  -21.4  -23.7   250.4    36.6
  400.  7283.  -27.5  -30.2   254.3    38.9
  350.  8231.  -34.6  -37.7   258.6    44.8
  300.  9285.  -43.5  -48.9   256.4    48.6
  250. 10493.  -49.8  -66.6   270.3    61.0
  200. 11936.  -54.1  -68.5   278.4    77.8
  150. 13749.  -60.4  -79.0   284.9    74.7
  100. 16264.  -63.2  -86.3   268.6    40.7
   50. 20540.  -60.6  -86.7   280.9    15.1

 

Wow, that sounding for hour 72 aint even close. Solidly cold.

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 PRESS HGT(MSL) TEMP DEW PT  WND DIR  WND SPD
 HPA       M      C     C       DEG     M/S  
 E = Estimated Surface Height

 1012.   149.   -1.2   -1.9    20.6     5.1
 1000.   242.   -2.1   -2.7    22.8     8.2
  975.   442.   -3.6   -4.2    27.9    12.9
  950.   647.   -4.3   -5.1    35.8    16.3
  925.   857.   -4.0   -4.9    42.5    16.3
  900.  1073.   -4.9   -5.9    40.8    16.0
  875.  1294.   -5.7   -6.7    41.3    14.8
  850.  1521.   -6.3   -7.4    39.3    12.9
  825.  1754.   -7.0   -8.2    38.3    10.3
  800.  1994.   -7.6   -8.8    33.6     7.9
  775.  2241.   -7.0   -8.0   352.1     3.7
  750.  2498.   -5.0   -5.8   232.3     7.0
  725.  2765.   -4.5   -5.1   201.6    12.8
  700.  3041.   -5.2   -5.8   219.2    13.8
  650.  3623.   -5.8   -6.3   196.9    29.3
  600.  4247.   -9.2  -10.1   226.1    26.8
  550.  4914.  -13.6  -15.0   244.8    25.3
  500.  5632.  -18.0  -19.9   257.0    28.0
  450.  6412.  -23.1  -25.6   259.6    32.5
  400.  7264.  -29.3  -46.7   265.8    38.4
  350.  8203.  -36.3  -57.4   264.5    45.3
  300.  9256.  -42.3  -66.3   268.0    51.1
  250. 10475.  -46.8  -67.7   271.2    67.1
  200. 11936.  -52.5  -71.8   276.1    77.0
  150. 13758.  -60.0  -79.7   281.4    73.9
  100. 16263.  -63.0  -86.1   280.2    41.5
   50. 20547.  -62.0  -87.7   283.3    15.2

 

Hour 75

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