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palmettoweather

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Everything posted by palmettoweather

  1. palmettoweather
    Glad to see so many people get to enjoy snow, including the RDU, E NC and the Midlands/Pee Dee of SC. Hope we all have one more!
  2. palmettoweather
    https://www.weather.gov/ilm/ChristmasSnow1989 It's rare, but growing up in the Pee Dee, it is definitely not impossible.
  3. palmettoweather
    https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202102071609-KGSP-NOUS42-PNSGSP
  4. palmettoweather
    Good flakes here outside of Pendleton (extreme Northern Anderson county near Central) , looks to be the end of the show with the warm nose creeping this way and precip ending. Never will complain about a surprise 2" snowfall in the South though. I hope a lot more people get to see some snow out of this, pulling for you.
  5. palmettoweather
  6. palmettoweather
    Mostly snow/sleet in Pendleton. Ground turning white. Have to give Bull and Burrel credit, I was pretty cynical on HRRR. Already below temp I was supposed to be tonight. 32.9/32.1
  7. palmettoweather
    35.1/33.8, flakes mixing in here.
  8. palmettoweather
    Well temp is down to 40.5/35.4 here outside of Pendleton. Definitely crashed 6 degrees in the last 30 minutes due to evaporative cooling, but rate driven event will have to take it from here. Still hope HRRR knows something.
  9. palmettoweather
    I'll never doubt the NAM again. HRRR is fool's gold, hope I'm wrong. Hard to doubt what it is seeing in regards to thermals.
  10. palmettoweather
    34/27 in Pendleton, clouds have moved in. Hoping burrel reels us one in indeed!
  11. palmettoweather
    If it has a warm bubble all the way into NE GA and the Western Upstate, you can count on it...
  12. palmettoweather
    As one of the mets posted on here the other day, the 12 km NAM is usually pretty goofy with its surface depiction. It is bad about displaying widespread QPF as one consistent mass. The 3km is higher resolution and it is usually has a reasonably accurate depiction of reflectivity in that there will be bands, not one continuous mass of precipitation in this system.
  13. palmettoweather
    Man that's awesome, happy for y'all in the mountains getting some snow! Hopefully that bodes well for the rest of the Southeast.
  14. palmettoweather
    Happy to see you got some snow man, that's awesome!
  15. palmettoweather
    Big flakes here as well now, but still 37. Not gonna stick like 2/8.
  16. palmettoweather
    Finally some flakes mixing in with heavier returns NE of Pendleton, 38.
  17. palmettoweather
    I can't find you a page that quickly, but you are looking for Correlation Coefficient. It's usually dead on, however, I'm North of it in Pendleton/Central and I'm rain/sleet. Too warm at the surface I guess, and tricked CC. Edit: I'm using app on Android, RadarScope, but I believe it is a one time pay product.
  18. palmettoweather
    48/32 E of Pendleton, SC
  19. palmettoweather
    It folded on NE GA and the Upstate for the most part as well, moving toward the warm nose that NAM sniffed out way before. I was looking too, but alas, here's to a nowcast miracle in GA and Upstate.
  20. palmettoweather
    Yeah, there is a 5 degree C difference at 825 mb between the 3K NAM and the HRRR/RAP at my place. There may be hope, even though asking for the HRRR/RAP to verify upstairs and the 3K NAM to verify at the surface seems like a stretch.
  21. palmettoweather
    That hasn't been nailed down, but we will for this exercise, assume the 3K NAM is close. This is the first panel that shows precip of a heavy nature over Durham. If you read the valid (not the init or initialization) on any of these forecast maps, it will tell you the time (this one 18Z), then subtract 5 hours for EST (these maps are all in UTC). So this would suggest this scenario pictured unfolding at 1300 or 1 PM on Thursday.
  22. palmettoweather
    Hour 54, roughly middle of event for Upstate SC, WNC
  23. palmettoweather
    Start of event for Upstate (corrected, should have been hr48 for 12z).
  24. palmettoweather
    Other way, 3KM resolution is higher. Think about it as that it can resolve down to 3KM "blocks."
  25. palmettoweather
    Just as an observation from a few previous winters, the 12K NAM's surface output often seems a bit odd and tends to overdo the QPF in quantity and spread it out over a massive region. I've hunted verification scores at 500 and surface between the different resolutions of the NAM, but I have not found any. 3KM NAM should give us more clarity once it is in range, I'm wary of this 12KM output.
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