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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

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1 hour ago, WeatherHawk said:

yes, just a bit

It's been Pretty ridiculous. Already have 0.30 with this first band...and based on upstream totals more than inch seems likely tonight. Which isnt huge news if not for the fact that most of the guidance was further north. Hrrr had my location getting less than 0.10 tonight. Not a good few days for the hrrr.

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12 hours ago, kvegas-wx said:

So he's saying its a bit "moist"?  ;)

Look at his facial expression.  He's saying you can kiss this winter goodbye

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Right now I'd put more "stock" in the ECMWF, especially with that mid-state wake county cut off.    Almost looks like a rain-to-snow transition which hardly ever works out for us.

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28 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

The 0z EURO CONTROL and 12z GFS look kinda similar for late next week.4fd1503f3feb8c76a5731f0be396518e.jpg504b9dcc49ade037d391ebb3a87f223b.jpg

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
 

That is a triple bunner:

:weenie: :weenie::weenie:
 

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17 minutes ago, IWC said:

Apparently

we have learned nothing about wishing our lives away 10 days at a time..

Terrible pattern, absolutely nothing supporting sustained cold. But something catches a 12 hour window at D10+ and gets shown on 1-2 model runs before turning into a MW cutter. Sigh... Onto severe season for me. Only way to get snow here is what happened in GA/SC the other day, something pops up in D3 range

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3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Terrible pattern, absolutely nothing supporting sustained cold. But something catches a 12 hour window at D10+ and gets shown on 1-2 model runs before turning into a MW cutter. Sigh... Onto severe season for me. Only way to get snow here is what happened in GA/SC the other day, something pops up in D3 range

2/8/20 says it can snow in a craptastic pattern! I mean 8”+ in NGA?? That’s like 300-400% of normal atleast! I think that’s about 800% of Wilkesboros total this year??

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36 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

2/8/20 says it can snow in a craptastic pattern! I mean 8”+ in NGA?? That’s like 300-400% of normal atleast! I think that’s about 800% of Wilkesboros total this year??

And this also means that at some point, areas further north and east will cash in right????? Theory of atmospheric balance????

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Pet peeve alert....

This is largely a board for weather enthusiasts. It gets very old when the flood of the same, tired, snide comments come in after someone posts a medium-range model map. I think everyone reading this board is aware a single run of a deterministic model (or single ensemble member) will likely never verify in the extended medium range.

But what are people supposed to post? A picture of an overcast sky? The purpose of the board is to discuss whatever there is to discuss, and unfortunately for snow fans, medium-range snapshots are about all we've got. 

End of rant... back to your regularly-scheduled programming.

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3 minutes ago, msuwx said:

Pet peeve alert....

This is largely a board for weather enthusiasts. It gets very old when the flood of the same, tired, snide comments come in after someone posts a medium-range model map. I think everyone reading this board is aware a single run of a deterministic model (or single ensemble member) will likely never verify in the extended medium range.

But what are people supposed to post? A picture of an overcast sky? The purpose of the board is to discuss whatever there is to discuss, and unfortunately for snow fans, medium-range snapshots are about all we've got. 

End of rant... back to your regularly-scheduled programming.

Exactly!

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10 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

When most day 10 storms have showed up this year, they were only on the GFS , the fact that the Euro has it too, is slightly a better situation 

Welp, Euro now has our D10 storm in Des Moines, Iowa. We need some help :beer:

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https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml

Let me save you the trouble of clicking:

NAO - Not suitable for small children

AO - Don't look Ethel....at lease moving toward 0 after this week

PNA - See AO

Given the horrific indices this winter, it's amazing we have gotten any frozen precip. at all in the SE.    

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1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

When most day 10 storms have showed up this year, they were only on the GFS , the fact that the Euro has it too, is slightly a better situation 

The Euro control run... 

32 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml

Let me save you the trouble of clicking:

NAO - Not suitable for small children

AO - Don't look Ethel....at lease moving toward 0 after this week

PNA - See AO

Given the horrific indices this winter, it's amazing we have gotten any frozen precip. at all in the SE.    

Given the above, not in "scientific" terms though highly accurate, NOTHING outside of D3 deserves any credence showing any sustained cold or a fluke snowstorm until proven otherwise

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2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Terrible pattern, absolutely nothing supporting sustained cold. But something catches a 12 hour window at D10+ and gets shown on 1-2 model runs before turning into a MW cutter. Sigh... Onto severe season for me. Only way to get snow here is what happened in GA/SC the other day, something pops up in D3 range

To be fair the Euro actually picked up the system from this past weekend quite a bit further out than that. I think 0z Euro on the 2nd was the first signs of snow in the interior southeast. It moved around a lot and the amounts went up and down after that, but it did at least pick up the "threat" at a decent lead time. But yeah inside day 3 is when things really solidified and all the guidance started to converge on the same solution. 

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Fun fact about February 1990, it was right in the middle of the longest snow drought on record here in the Triad. They may be onto something with this Arctic Oscillation thingy.

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Nice to see both the GFS and Euro agreeing with at least the potential, would feel better if this was 4-5 days out though....still big high over eastern GL and low off the coast moving ENE is what we want.....

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