Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,389
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    crossbowftw3
    Newest Member
    crossbowftw3
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
gymengineer

Grading Winter 2018-2019

Recommended Posts

Of course, adjust your grading if any late March/April events come about. I figured this is a good week to get this thread started. Thanks for starting this thread in the past seasons, @WxWatcher007

2018-2019: I can’t grade it lower than a B. (I tried given how unhappy the mood was generally in here.) The January event was wrapped in positive outcomes during the lead-up and actual event, making it better for me than, say, 2/12-13/14. Saturday morning (1/12/19), just hours before the onset, was great as the model consensus finally resembled the NAM-esque QPF’s, and we got the upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning for 5-10”. I was already very pleased that the warning verified when I woke up Sunday morning. Not banking on the second half, I went outside to enjoy what had fallen. And then came the best conditions since 2016 for the rest of the afternoon into the evening. Another big plus for me was how the November event maxed out and way exceeded expectations for road accumulations. Add in the late February event that had no problems coating main roads in daytime, and I know I’ll always look back fondly on this season.

Below are my winter ratings for the past 25 seasons. Priority is always given to impact. Snow days refers to the number of days Montgomery County Public Schools closed.

09/10= A+    78.5"; 1) 26.5" (2/5-6/10)   2) 21" (12/18-19/09)   3) 13.5" (2/9-10/10);  9 snow days; this winter clearly stands out as the top I've ever experienced, and since it's a level superior to 95/96 and 02/03, I put those as A's. 

 

95/96= A       65";   1) 25" (1/6-8/96)      2) 8" (2/16/96)    3) 7-1/4" (2/2-3/96);  9 snow days

02/03= A       53";   1) 21" (2/16-18/03)   2) 6.5" (2/6-7/03)   3) 6-1/4" (12/5/02); 10 snow days 

 

13/14= A-     52.5";  1) 15.5" (2/12-13/14)    2) 9" (3/16-17/14)    3) 6.5" (1/21/14); 10 snow days; only thing that knocked this down a notch to an  A- for me vs. an A is that it didn't have that one 20"+ storm that closed schools for a week

 

14/15= B+    32-1/4"; 1) 7-1/4" (2/21/15)   2) 7" (3/5/15)    3) 3-3/4" (1/6/15); 7 snow days; historic February cold

15/16= B+    34-3/4"; 1) 29" (1/22-23/16)    2) 2-3/4" (2/14-15/16)    3) 2" (3/3-4"); 7 snow days; I had this season as a B originally but I knew it was likely the more the years go by, the more favorably I’ll look back at the 1/20-1/27 window.  

 

92/93= B       25";  1) 13.5" (3/13/93)    2) 3" (2/21/93)    3) 3" (2/26/93); 4 snow days

93/94= B       20.5";  1) 5" (3/1-2/94)    2) 3" (1/20/94)     3) 3" (12/28/93); 11 snow (mostly ice) days (!)

18/19= B       25.7”; 1) 11.5” (1/12-13/19)   2) 4.8” (2/20/19)   3) 2” (11/15/18); 4 snow days; January event was spectacular and I had my best November event since 1995; 6th snowiest winter in 25 seasons

 

99/00= C+    22";  1) 9" (1/25/00)   2) 5.5" (1/21/00)   3) 4.5" (1/29/00); 4 snow days

 

98/99= C      21.5"; 1) 8.5" (3/9/99)  2) 4.5" (3/14-15/99)  3) 3-3/4" (1/8/99); 5 snow days

04/05= C      20"; tied 1) 4.5" (2/24/05 and 2/28/05)  3) 3-3/4" (1/22/05); 3 snow days

05/06= C      23"; 1) 14" (2/11-12/06)  2) 3-3/4" (12/5-6/05)  3) 2.5" (12/9/05); 2 snow days

06/07= C      14.5"; 1) 5" (2/25/07)  2) 3.5" sleet (2/13-14/07)   3) 1.5" LOL (1/21/07); 4 snow days; the 3-in-a-row snow days for the sleet storm as well as the very cold and active February lifted this winter up to a "C" despite the well-below average snow total

 

03/04= C-     19";  1) 7.5" (12/5-6/03)  2) 6" (1/25-26/04)  3) 4" (12/14/03); 4 snow days (2 for ZR in February) + 3 for Hurricane Isabel

10/11= C-     15"; 1) 8.5" (1/26/11); 3 snow days in a row

 

94/95= D+     12.5"; 1) 6.5" (2/3-4/95)   2) 4" (1/28/95); 1 snow day in March

17/18= D+     11.3”; 1) 3.8” (3/21/18)   2) 3” (12/9/17); 5 closing days! This winter got a bump up to a D+ vs. a  D because of the impact although the two closings in January were the wimpiest closings I can remember for ~1” across the county; first ever closing for blue-sky-winds with the March windstorm.

 

96/97= D       14.5"; 1) 6.5" (2/8/97)

 

00/01= D-      12-1/4"; 1) 3.5" (12/19/00) 

07/08= D-      8-3/4"; 1) 4.5" (1/17/08); only thing saving this winter from an F is I did have two 4"+ snows

08/09= D-      8.5"; 1) 6.5" (3/1-2/09); only thing saving this winter from an F is I did have a 6"+ storm

12/13= D-      10"; 1) 4" (3/25/13 LOL)

16/17= D-      6.5”; 1) 4” (3/13-14/17); 1 snow day for the March snow/sleet event, which held a solid  snow cover for four 12Z measurements

 

97/98= F        3" 

01/02= F        2.5"

11/12= F        2" 

 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Right at the long-term climo and the 5th highest total of last 10 years at home.  But only two events over 1.5” and few days with snow cover.  C+.  Forgettable winter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

C - based on below climo here at my location ( wish I were in psu land ) general blah winter , no real severe intervals, even missing the intense squalls that brought near 0 visibility to areas North of me. 

D - based on pre-season perception vs reality ( F - to all the long range seasonal models, they sucked ! )

D + to the AO and SAI , another poor showing  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

C 

Pros 

- No sustained cold (this is a pro because I don't like cold without snow) 

- Really nice January and February events

Cons

- Slightly below climo (14.5") 

- Multiple marginal events which shafted me while giving areas as little as 5-10 miles away an inch or two. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

B-

Acceptable overall. 

The mid January storm was awesome; one of the biggest reverse bust I can remember and occurring during the weekend of my birthday. Loved every second of it. 

I enjoyed the rare November event even if it got washed away in a matter of hours. A bit lackluster the rest of the way, but there were still some nice events in the mix as well. I love watching snow fall regardless of whether it sticks or not, so this winter didn’t disappoint for me. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

B.

Over 25" here.  January storm was awesome, plus 3 other sled-able events for the kids.  Snow pile in the parking lot made it from 1/12 to 3/12.  Would have loved for a good week+ cold snap, but otherwise a very solid MA winter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Assuming we don't get a big snow to end the season, D-. Sure, I'll finish just barely below climo if it doesn't snow again, but it's the hype and expectations coming into the season, as well as the constant hammering of an amazing pattern by the weeklies that never came to fruition, that make this just above a failing grade. Even the storms that we got weren't good. My biggest storm was the January system. It snowed late at night while I was sleeping, it snizzled all day and there was even some dripping going on, and then it snowed nice for a few hours in the evening to bring me to about 8 inches for the storm in total. But it wasn't a particularly fun or exciting storm because of the long duration. The most exciting storm was the one in February where it snowed hard for almost 2 hours and then we dryslotted way faster than expected.

The only reason this doesn't get an F is because we were near climo, but these are the kind of seasons where we need to hit it big because of climo and it was a massive failure, and if it wasn't for the freak, localized banding that got a small area with the January storm, my biggest total would have been around 4 inches, and many got that from that storm. And the Northeast in general had a horrendous winter. We actually got lucky in comparison, which is sad.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

as I said in banter, D+/C- 

too many small events, too many marginal events that didn't swing my way. missed out on the jan storm. 5.5" was highest at any one time, that came in mid-november. 

not the worst winter since moving to Parkton, but pretty terrible regardless. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, mappy said:

as I said in banter, D+/C- 

too many small events, too many marginal events that didn't swing my way. missed out on the jan storm. 5.5" was highest at any one time, that came in mid-november. 

not the worst winter since moving to Parkton, but pretty terrible regardless. 

D+

Never once felt like "deep winter."  A lot of small stat padders, but nothing that hung around.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

OK, I kind of joked in the Banter thread giving this winter a "C-plus(!!!) a'la Ralphie in "A Christmas Story".  But in all honesty, I think that (ironically?) would have to be my final grade at this point.  So C+ it is, but I won't shoot my eye out!

It's all subjective, to be sure, depending on what one's expectations are, what one favors in a "good" vs. "meh" winter, etc.  And with that, it's obviously hard to pin a single score that covers the gamut.

(Subjective) reasoning for my grade...

The Good:  Jan. 12-13 storm, dropped 11.0" in my location, easily the largest single-event amount since the Jan. 2016 Blizzard.  And setting aside that blizzard, it was the most snowfall in an event since Feb. 2014.  The February 20 snow-to-ice event.  Really cool and kind of over-performed.  We never got the "wash out" that I was worried about once the snow ended, though 50+ degrees and sunny the next day pretty well got rid of it.  A couple of legitimate, solid cold outbreaks during MLK weekend in January and late Jan/early Feb.  The Feb. 1 light snow event was nifty...not a lot (~1.5" for me), but cold smoke on a cold day.  And of course the November event, a week before Thanksgiving.  Getting just above climo for the season around here helped, too...always a plus.

The Bad:  Very inconsistent season, never seemed like much of anything got truly "off the ground".  Not that I expected wall-to-wall, but a lot of "potential" just evaporated for the most part.  And yeah, some of that was subjective expectation.  However, long range models and other indicators were a travesty this year, for whatever reason.  And it wasn't like only one model was looking great 10 days out while others looked like crap...it was consistent across the board.  Then it would all disintegrate for the most part as time went on.  Made it very hard to assess or make a forecast for much of anything.

The Ugly:  Maybe this is again perspective, but seems like we had an inordinate amount of cold, rainy days compared to most years.  It was wet to be sure.  Just seemed like every few days we'd be looking at 35 and rain near the metro areas, while others farther north/west were looking at ice changing to 35 and rain.  Dank and cold...bleah!...about had my fill of that.  And the MJO lolly-gagging in phase 5-6 there for a good while.  Another "ugly", though this isn't directly related to weather, was the level of discussion and commentary in here.  I know many were frustrated, but the barrage of negative and "deb" posts, or just plain God-awful analysis (or assumptions) got very trying.  Enough to push away some of the long-time very good posters, which was a big loss (hope they come back!!).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I graded this winter a C,

If this winter was a student, it started strong with an A + in November, turned in an F in December, January was a B, February a C-, March (so far a C-).  Just didn’t live up to its perceived potential.  Hit climo,  2 warning events.  Guess it could have been worse, so a Solid C.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

C+

B on snowfall, D+ on temps

Bonus points for the January storm, but a deduction for December being Autumn.

Overall, a slightly subpar Winter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

D+

Never once felt like "deep winter."  A lot of small stat padders, but nothing that hung around.

yup. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This isn't a final as I feel one more event is in us, especially N and W. Overall a B currently, but that is mainly due to the surprise December storm where I ended up with 21 inches on a 3-5 forecast upped to 6-10 as the snow started falling (so a fail 'F' to the forecasters). Sitting at 35.2 on the season due to that one event over a 26.7 average, otherwise it has been a slightly below average winter in terms of snow and cold. We did excellent on moisture though with temps in the low/mid 30's.... a degree here or there and maybe this would have been the banner 60-70" winter it appeared to be in the long term models.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

B.  Grade is based on actual outcomes (fair number of events, actual total snowfall, good distribution throughout the season and decent snowcover longevity).  If I weight the actuals with expectations as we entered the season, it would be a perception-biased C-.

10 year mean for MBY went from 34.34" to 34.42"

10 year median for MBY went from 22.5" to 28.8"

There's very little chance both median and mean numbers don't take a big hit next year as the 87.0" from 2009/10 roll off the 10 year rolling averages next year.  C'mon moderate El Nino + blocking............

Totals subject to change after the upcoming Sunday night snowshowers and midweek 1993 March superstorm redux.  And the whopper on the 30th as well.  :^P

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Grade doesn't mean much without some quantifiable criteria, so:

As a starting point (based on 26" climo):

A = >190% climo  (50"+)

B = 125 - 189%     (40"+)

C = 90% - 124%   (23"+)

D = 75% - 89%    (20"+)

F = <75%            (< 20")

 

Based on ~23" of snow IMBY this season, I start with a "C".  Expectations and model teases of epic patterns don't factor in my grading scale.  But, there are other factors that influence the grade, up/down.  

Upward factors: 

  • early start in Nov. made the winter seem longer than normal (++)
  • had a 6"+ cold storm (++)
  • Beaches and Tidewater didn't 4X my snowfall for this year (+)

Downward factors:

  • No December/Christmas snow (again) (---)
  • December HECS to our south while I smoked cirrus (---)
  • Lots of 33F rain, and lots of rain in-general (---)
  • No long cold/wintry periods, snow-cover (---)

So the miscellaneous factors are heavily weighted in the "downward" category.

Therefore, I regret to you inform you, Winter, that you have earned a "D" grade for this season.  While you showed up early to class, you had too many unexcused absences, and far too often the quality of your work was not to acceptable standards.  Finally, you were given chances to turn in missing assignments after the grading period, but you failed to take advantage of this opportunity.  I wish you a happy Summer, and hope that you will put forth more effort in your work next year. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I’ve gone back and forth on this but am going with B- for the winter.  

Reaching climo (20”) is nothing to scoff at and we had a 10+” storm.  The other events were kinda meh but we had a few of them (unlike the last two winters which were abysmal).  

I deducted half a grade however due to the fact that none of the epic looks from the weeklies came to fruition and the winter did not live up to expectations.   The winter was billed as a blockbuster and ended up being average.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

C-

Reached my median, but also got missed to both the south and the north. The last week of January into Feb 1st was a cool period, otherwise it would've been a D. Worst thing about this winter for me is the absence of any legit storm over 5". It was a great winter if you like 2-4" events and little else.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@gymengineer

:clap:Man..dude ...what a detailed culmination over those 25 years . I only wish I was as atentitive to details back then.  I was too busy looking out the window lol...and didn't write things down for several years into this hobby . I could kick myself for not taking pics or videos during the 93' and 96' storms...especially.  

  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

C

It was above average.  Did not live up to the blockbuster -NAO STJ with chained KU storms. 

The December and January could have performed much better here with slight tweaks to the pattern. The February pattern really sucked.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I remember several years ago I did a poll asking if people preferred many nickel-and-dime events vs one HECS and nothing else. At the time, the consensus was nickel-and-dime was better- wonder how everyone thinks about that now? (I’ve always been in the HECS or bust camp)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×