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nj2va

2/19-20 Winter Storm Observations

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17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Sub freezing at 31 now. Nice to have a multi hour stretch sub freezing before onset. Can make a big difference if rates are light at the beginning.

Also, stop looking at the hrrr until precip is overhead or at least close. It uses radar data at initialization and generally does really bad or is very inconsistent when onset is still a number of hours away. Honestly, I've never found the hrrr that useful with winter storms. Globals do far better in general. 

I just shed a tear. Welcome back! 

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9 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

Ferrier is as silly as clown map

At this point when I see Ferrier is the last thing being posted to keep the hype down, I know it's going to be a good system, because it's ALWAYS bad.

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Just now, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

Hey I haven’t mentioned that word once yet 

I am just playing.  I remember a storm last winter or the year before where that was your post repeatedly about a storm threat.  Annoyingly, you were mostly right that time!  lol

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Here's a tool I made that compares the HRRR radar to the observed radar. It can be useful for determining how the most recent run is doing with precip placement.

usa_diff_radar.png

 

As you can see, the 02z HRRR does not have the light returns as far north as they actually are.

More images can be found here https://jmmweather.com/hrrr/

 

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4 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Good population tonight in the forum, 142

We don’t need snow if we have each other. 

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1 minute ago, WesternFringe said:

I am just playing.  I remember a storm last winter or the year before where that was your post repeatedly about a storm threat.  Annoyingly, you were mostly right that time!  lol

 Honestly I do not think dry air is that big of an issue on this one. I think it is more about the trajectory of the heavy precipitation. That mostly goes well to our north west into the Ohio Valley And West PA. So basically I think the precipitation coming our way kind of Is getting sheared out and getting weaker as it comes Northeast. At least that’s how the models see it to a degree 

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GFS better for DC, compared to 18z. Shitshow north of Bmore.
Every model is different with 6 hours left. Awesome
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8 minutes ago, Jmister said:

Here's a tool I made that compares the HRRR radar to the observed radar. It can be useful for determining how the most recent run is doing with precip placement.

usa_diff_radar.png

 

As you can see, the 02z HRRR does not have the light returns as far north as they actually are.

More images can be found here https://jmmweather.com/hrrr/

 

LOL did I pay you to make this? ;)

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Wow at the 00z GFS.  DC loses 700mb just before 18z and 0.5”+ QPF has fallen by 18z.  I’d side with the 3k/Euro blend vs the GFS at this point but nice to see GFS in the RGEM camp with a nice thump for DC.  

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32/21.  

I sense some tension.    Schools are closed.  We are nearing the end of Feb.    I count this as a win. No matter what happens.  I live in MD after all. 

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5 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

 Honestly I do not think dry air is that big of an issue on this one. I think it is more about the trajectory of the heavy precipitation. That mostly goes well to our north west into the Ohio Valley And West PA. So basically I think the precipitation coming our way kind of Is getting sheared out and getting weaker as it comes Northeast. At least that’s how the models see it to a degree 

0Z models do not show that so far. Don’t look at the snow maps— just look at precip total maps through 18Z tomorrow. The aim of the heaviest precip is not where you described. 

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1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Wow at the 00z GFS.  DC loses 700mb just before 18z and 0.5”+ QPF has fallen by 18z.  I’d side with the 3k/Euro blend vs the GFS at this point but nice to see GFS in the RGEM camp with a nice thump for DC.  

Sounding at 18z at DCA looks isothermal up at 700mb... so just barely hanging on to snow if its pounding IMO 

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This is going to start on the earlier side of projections IMO. Snow is progressing nicely up the Shenandoah Valley. My projected start time is between 1-3 and I would lean towards closer to 1 than 3.

 

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