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2/19-20 Winter Storm Observations


nj2va
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1 minute ago, jewell2188 said:

Right on que, CWG lowers amounts again....dry air will delay the onset apparently.

They went from 3-7” to 3-6” for NW of 95.  From 2-5” to 2-4” for 95.  Seems reasonable given where we’ve been the last 48 hours.  

And knowing the CWG, they’ll keep updating their map until the storm is over to make sure they can give themselves an A for their forecast.

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In my experience here in the Shenandoah Valley, the HRRR does poorly until the moisture has cleared the Alleghenies.  It's almost as if it can't decide how much will make it over, but since it runs every hour it starts to show better results once it samples how much precip actually did make it over. *

*Official Weenie Handbook Rule #3241

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I just took some surface readings of the Chesapeake Bay with my IR temperature gun - not the most accurate, but gives a good idea: 26-27F. Ground is still a bit mushy (not frozen) but the grass is getting very cold too - sub-25F everywhere I checked. Even though the air temperature is still reading 36.4F. I don't know how well calibrated the temperature gun is, but I've used it before and it seemed pretty accurate in warmer weather.

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1 minute ago, digital snow said:

It is the new wave in forecasting. There is a (insert %) this will happen. I actually like it, statistics.

 

Just now, Fozz said:

They do. It's called probabilistic forecasting. And if they fall outside their core ranges, they'll grade themselves lower.

Meh,

I understand it, I just don’t particularly like it or think it’s very useful.  

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