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nj2va

2/19-20 Winter Storm Observations

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5 minutes ago, jnis said:

Glad your here for obs! Let’s hope MoCo gets what we deserve! Lol you get to spend some quality time with your kids tomorrow.

Storm thread was excellent. I was always catching up and wasn't watching daytime model runs until well after they ran. Enjoyed the clean/concise rundown. I applaud the sub posters and mods keeping things clean, concise, and very readable. 

The one thing I want to add that I don't think was discussed much last few days are ratios. Yes, we have a really nice column at onset but it changes very quickly in regards to DSG and what type of snow will be falling. This won't be pretty fluffy dendrites and even with all snow falling (prob heavy at times) it will resemble sand and oatmeal falling at times. There is a sig WAA pump going on up above 850mb. Losing 800-700mb levels while everything below is important to understand. Could be all snow but still only 8:1 (or lower) ratios. 

If anyone remembers Feb 2014 or March 2013 onset it will likely resemble that type of snowfall. Not pretty 10 or 12:1 stuff. More of a pounding white meteor or sand or oatmeal or whatever you want to call it. Snow will be dense and will go through a progression of worsening ratios until sleet takes over.

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NWS radar over TN/NC is intense.  Large cells of deep red, nearly at the black level on the legend.  That's more like a summer-time event than Feb.  If even a percentage of that holds, the sn+ rates tomorrow am will be exciting.

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24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

34 and ready for my fully stocked winter wx buffet

Just to clear the air and not derail this thread... I took a break for 2 reasons. 1) was burned out and not enjoying myself at all around here and 2) have some important stuff (all good) going on in my personal life. I said I'd be back for obs and here I am. Let's do this man. 

Welcome back Mr. Chill

 

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24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

34 and ready for my fully stocked winter wx buffet

Just to clear the air and not derail this thread... I took a break for 2 reasons. 1) was burned out and not enjoying myself at all around here and 2) have some important stuff (all good) going on in my personal life. I said I'd be back for obs and here I am. Let's do this man. 

I have been waiting for this more than my wedding night. Welcome back. I hope you get slammed. 

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AA hoCo moCo schools are closed for all of my fellow parents and teachers etc. 

18z looks juiced. All I cared to look for at this point. Dynamics (placement of bands highest qpf totals and changeover times) are all subject to tiny changes in each model. Not smart to put stock into any one model for this reason. Looking good for an area wide 3-6” dump before we slopfest and then hopefully we dry slot before much rain can fall with a track to our NW. 8” definitely attainable in Climo favored areas (congrats Westminster)

 

Currently at 32 degrees with a dew point of 8

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down here in North Central VA . or Southern Northern VA

 

38 / 19   and  I even washed my car tonight trying to guarantee it would snow. 

snip it of radar

Screen Shot 2019-02-19 at 7.17.17 PM.png

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Storm thread was excellent. I was always catching up and wasn't watching daytime model runs until well after they ran. Enjoyed the clean/concise rundown. I applaud the sub posters and mods keeping things clean, concise, and very readable. 

The one thing I want to add that I don't think was discussed much last few days are ratios. Yes, we have a really nice column at onset but it changes very quickly in regards to DSG and what type of snow will be falling. This won't be pretty fluffy dendrites and even with all snow falling (prob heavy at times) it will resemble sand and oatmeal falling at times. There is a sig WAA pump going on up above 850mb. Losing 800-700mb levels while everything below is important to understand. Could be all snow but still only 8:1 (or lower) ratios. 

If anyone remembers Feb 2014 or March 2013 onset it will likely resemble that type of snowfall. Not pretty 10 or 12:1 stuff. More of a pounding white meteor or sand or oatmeal or whatever you want to call it. Snow will be dense and will go through a progression of worsening ratios until sleet takes over.

Always appreciate your insight! :)

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31/11

Brutal day at work today. 14 hours of hell in all honesty. But it was nice knowing I am going to get buried tomorrow. Didnt even worry about looking at the models or forecast all day. This thing was locked in yesterday. Still like my 5-8 call and Martinsburg to Hagerstown Jack. The HRRR is stunning.

Oh and nice to have you back Bob. The board isnt the same without you.

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9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Storm thread was excellent. I was always catching up and wasn't watching daytime model runs until well after they ran. Enjoyed the clean/concise rundown. I applaud the sub posters and mods keeping things clean, concise, and very readable. 

The one thing I want to add that I don't think was discussed much last few days are ratios. Yes, we have a really nice column at onset but it changes very quickly in regards to DSG and what type of snow will be falling. This won't be pretty fluffy dendrites and even with all snow falling (prob heavy at times) it will resemble sand and oatmeal falling at times. There is a sig WAA pump going on up above 850mb. Losing 800-700mb levels while everything below is important to understand. Could be all snow but still only 8:1 (or lower) ratios. 

If anyone remembers Feb 2014 or March 2013 onset it will likely resemble that type of snowfall. Not pretty 10 or 12:1 stuff. More of a pounding white meteor or sand or oatmeal or whatever you want to call it. Snow will be dense and will go through a progression of worsening ratios until sleet takes over.

I do remember those snows you referenced. This high density snow is tough to shovel and I expect that is what I’ll see here in Damascus. I’m thinking 2-4” of heavy, dense snow when it’s done. 

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30 minutes ago, Hyphnx said:

I missed you. See the radar?

Radar looks solid but there is no way all the guidance is wrong about when meaninful precip breaks out over each of our yards. Even if onset ends up being 3 hours early or whatever it won't change the outcome for many. The good lift/frontogen is likely very well modeled. Even if onset comes early it will prob be inconsequential until things get more dynamic later overnight for you and around dawn for my yard.

This will be a fun event. Sleet is more disruptive on the roads than snowfall. An inch or 2 of frozen ball bearing on the roads can wreak havoc worse than snowfall.

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16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Storm thread was excellent. I was always catching up and wasn't watching daytime model runs until well after they ran. Enjoyed the clean/concise rundown. I applaud the sub posters and mods keeping things clean, concise, and very readable. 

The one thing I want to add that I don't think was discussed much last few days are ratios. Yes, we have a really nice column at onset but it changes very quickly in regards to DSG and what type of snow will be falling. This won't be pretty fluffy dendrites and even with all snow falling (prob heavy at times) it will resemble sand and oatmeal falling at times. There is a sig WAA pump going on up above 850mb. Losing 800-700mb levels while everything below is important to understand. Could be all snow but still only 8:1 (or lower) ratios. 

If anyone remembers Feb 2014 or March 2013 onset it will likely resemble that type of snowfall. Not pretty 10 or 12:1 stuff. More of a pounding white meteor or sand or oatmeal or whatever you want to call it. Snow will be dense and will go through a progression of worsening ratios until sleet takes over.

Glad you’re back!

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Radar looks solid but there is no way all the guidance is wrong about when meaninful precip breaks out over each of our yards. Even if onset ends up being 3 hours early or whatever it won't change the outcome for many. The good lift/frontogen is likely very well modeled. Even if onset comes early it will prob be inconsequential until things get more dynamic later overnight for you and around dawn for my yard.

This will be a fun event. Sleet is more disruptive on the roads than snowfall. An inch or 2 of frozen ball bearing on the roads can wreak havoc worse than snowfall.

welcome back man. It took a winter storm warning but good to have you back. See you in the long range thread lol

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4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

@tombo82685 says 18z euro is wetter with same thermals as 12z. Not sure if that’s just for Philly or us too.

wetter is always better

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3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

@tombo82685 says 18z euro is wetter with same thermals as 12z. Not sure if that’s just for Philly or us too.

Yea it’s a bit wetter for you. I haven’t kept track of when you guys changeover. I’ve been using the 546thickness as the start looking aloft signal. So 12z run had .25 a little west of dc at 15z Wednesday. This run brings .25 into DC now with 546 thickness exactly the same 

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5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

@tombo82685 says 18z euro is wetter with same thermals as 12z. Not sure if that’s just for Philly or us too.

Pretty much areawide wetter....roughly .10-.20 wetter by 18z.  10:1 is a 1-2" increase...

ETA: Ninja'd...

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22 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Storm thread was excellent. I was always catching up and wasn't watching daytime model runs until well after they ran. Enjoyed the clean/concise rundown. I applaud the sub posters and mods keeping things clean, concise, and very readable. 

The one thing I want to add that I don't think was discussed much last few days are ratios. Yes, we have a really nice column at onset but it changes very quickly in regards to DSG and what type of snow will be falling. This won't be pretty fluffy dendrites and even with all snow falling (prob heavy at times) it will resemble sand and oatmeal falling at times. There is a sig WAA pump going on up above 850mb. Losing 800-700mb levels while everything below is important to understand. Could be all snow but still only 8:1 (or lower) ratios. 

If anyone remembers Feb 2014 or March 2013 onset it will likely resemble that type of snowfall. Not pretty 10 or 12:1 stuff. More of a pounding white meteor or sand or oatmeal or whatever you want to call it. Snow will be dense and will go through a progression of worsening ratios until sleet takes over.

So glad to see you back!  You’be been missed! 

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Radar looks solid but there is no way all the guidance is wrong about when meaninful precip breaks out over each of our yards. Even if onset ends up being 3 hours early or whatever it won't change the outcome for many. The good lift/frontogen is likely very well modeled. Even if onset comes early it will prob be inconsequential until things get more dynamic later overnight for you and around dawn for my yard.

This will be a fun event. Sleet is more disruptive on the roads than snowfall. An inch or 2 of frozen ball bearing on the roads can wreak havoc worse than snowfall.

Agree. And BTW I remember that Feb 2014 event you mentioned, if it's the one that dumped on us overnight for hours, followed by sleet then dry slot/drizzle much of next day. 

It should be a fun event for sure. My hope is to keep the surface cold into the evening (hold off all rain long as possible), or at least have the complement of the day be wintry with snow and sleet. 

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Spent the day on the shore (Rock Hall, Chestertown, Eastern Neck NWR). Chilly day. Car temp read 39 the whole day. Nice halo around the sun as the clouds rolled in. Looked like it would be a nice sunset but it clouded up too much. 

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3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

@tombo82685 says 18z euro is wetter with same thermals as 12z. Not sure if that’s just for Philly or us too.

Its wetter here too.  It drops 0.25" by 15z in Arlington vs 0.15" (12z run).  0.6" by 00z vs 0.5" (12z run).  Delays the changeover to sleet until 17z too.  Rain by 21z.  

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2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

It's pretty tasty

lets get one more ramp at 12:54am...went from meh to tasty in 6 hours for you

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Well that concludes a friendly 18z suite right before game time. Let’s do this!

At least for MBY, it's better than the last 3 runs...

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