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2/19-20 Winter Storm Observations


nj2va
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Sub freezing at 31 now. Nice to have a multi hour stretch sub freezing before onset. Can make a big difference if rates are light at the beginning.

Also, stop looking at the hrrr until precip is overhead or at least close. It uses radar data at initialization and generally does really bad or is very inconsistent when onset is still a number of hours away. Honestly, I've never found the hrrr that useful with winter storms. Globals do far better in general. 

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Sub freezing at 31 now. Nice to have a multi hour stretch sub freezing before onset. Can make a big difference if rates are light at the beginning.

Also, stop looking at the hrrr until precip is overhead or at least close. It uses radar data at initialization and generally does really bad or is very inconsistent when onset is still a number of hours away. Honestly, I've never found the hrrr that useful with winter storms. Globals do far better in general. 

Great to have you back Bob. Always look forward to your analysis on this board.  Don’t let the Debs get you down.  Just remember how sad their lives must be to be trolling a weather forum.  Let’s bring this one home!

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9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Sub freezing at 31 now. Nice to have a multi hour stretch sub freezing before onset. Can make a big difference if rates are light at the beginning.

Also, stop looking at the hrrr until precip is overhead or at least close. It uses radar data at initialization and generally does really bad or is very inconsistent when onset is still a number of hours away. Honestly, I've never found the hrrr that useful with winter storms. Globals do far better in general. 

NOW, EVERYTHING is absolutely right in the world!

YOU. ARE. BACK!!!!!!!!!

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I’ve noticed a trend with some of our events this year.  Many storms both rain and snow that would normally get eaten up by the mountains or be delayed because of dry air have overperformed.  I remember other years where good returns seemed to never get to us or get eaten up by the mountains.  Anecdotal i know but it’s worth noting.

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17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Sub freezing at 31 now. Nice to have a multi hour stretch sub freezing before onset. Can make a big difference if rates are light at the beginning.

Also, stop looking at the hrrr until precip is overhead or at least close. It uses radar data at initialization and generally does really bad or is very inconsistent when onset is still a number of hours away. Honestly, I've never found the hrrr that useful with winter storms. Globals do far better in general. 

I just shed a tear. Welcome back! 

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