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Winter Re-Awakening - February 12-14th Redeveloper


Baroclinic Zone
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1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

I do not think Gore or Whiteface mix with sleet for any real period of time.   

Ok we may be on the same page.  "Any real period of time"... I agree in that it won't affect accums much but there could be pockets of pellets or really shitty bouncing granular flakes.  The line I gave is where I'm thinking pure snow with real flakes.

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14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

As long as we aren't going by the disastrous Logan observer, id forecast 3-6" for BOS right now. They are in an a pretty decent spot latitude and longitude wise. 

If we get one more tick colder at 00z tonight I'd up the ante to 4-8".

 

When the bent back WF in the midlevels is oriented from NW to SE line, that is usually a good setup for BOS and NE MA. That's like a 3/19/13 setup or 12/16/07. Where ALB-SYR is pinging before Scooter does.  

 

Yea..I think 5" in Boston.

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3 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

Yeah they all seem to be gung ho to bring in the sleet by 7pm. The maps all indicate no change until 10 or after so they clearly don't believe what they are putting on the air.

I'd be very surprised if BOS hadn't flipped by 03z...if they hold out until 03z, they'll get 8"+. They can prob score 4-5" if they last until 00z which is roughly when I'd put the changeover time at. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'd be very surprised if BOS hadn't flipped by 03z...if they hold out until 03z, they'll get 8"+. They can prob score 5" if they last until 00z which is roughly when I'd put the changeover time at. 

Yeah I know I seem to be obsessing over this but when what they say doesn't match what is on screen it leads to confusion for the general public.

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5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Weak 

I’ll round rumps that bounce when ..well anyway . Had a great time in room 256 at Spruce peak. Jacuzzi was great had icicle in my hair last nite . Age  40-49 is where I do the most damage 

Note to self, avoid this room if I ever stay there

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Man euro is a thump after 00z. 90 min difference in sleet timing could be like 2”. 

Yeah that is crazy precip rates there. Ray would prob score 8"+ on the euro. But for everyone an hour or two difference could mean 2-3". 

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How much zr for CT on Euro?

It's not that much. You're already getting dryslotted by 06z. Mostly just a snow to absolute scalping. Maybe hours and hours of light glazes afterward but it doesn't add up to that much qpf. 

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1 hour ago, Lava Rock said:

So only half washed away?:lol:

Or less, as Jeff noted.  Morning AFD from GYX guessed at late week RA similar to what I got on Jan. 24, and that only settled the pack 2-3" despite having 11" of powder (slightly IP-enriched) from 4 days earlier.  (CAD not allowing temps out of the 30s was key.)  The current pack is so solid (as I learned moving 3-4 tons off the porch roof Saturday) that I'm pretty confident the depth will be significantly greater this weekend than the 26" this morning.  AM p/c forecast had 5-9 tomorrow night and 3-5 Wednesday, GYX "expected" for Farmington was 11" this morning, up 1" from yesterday PM.  Unless something really changes, I anticipate an 8-12 forecast going into the event.

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2 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Or less, as Jeff noted.  Morning AFD from GYX guessed at late week RA similar to what I got on Jan. 24, and that only settled the pack 2-3" despite having 11" of powder (slightly IP-enriched) from 4 days earlier.  (CAD not allowing temps out of the 30s was key.)  The current pack is so solid (as I learned moving 3-4 tons off the porch roof Saturday) that I'm pretty confident the depth will be significantly greater this weekend than the 26" this morning.  AM p/c forecast had 5-9 tomorrow night and 3-5 Wednesday, GYX "expected" for Farmington was 11" this morning, up 1" from yesterday PM.  Unless something really changes, I anticipate an 8-12 forecast going into the event.

Nothing has changed in my thinking to come off that range, Euro has been steady showing that for several runs now and the Meso's are catching up.

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Just now, Whineminster said:

Thanksgiving snow and after is fine....but before that it's a bad omen, especially when it was so cold this November.  

We should've cancelled the November 6-7, 2012 snowstorm. Imagine how much more we would've gotten that winter...

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54 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

As long as we aren't going by the disastrous Logan observer, id forecast 3-6" for BOS right now. They are in an a pretty decent spot latitude and longitude wise. 

If we get one more tick colder at 00z tonight I'd up the ante to 4-8".

 

When the bent back WF in the midlevels is oriented from NW to SE line, that is usually a good setup for BOS and NE MA. That's like a 3/19/13 setup or 12/16/07. Where ALB-SYR is pinging before Scooter does.  

 

I would take the under on that for BOS

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22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 I would definitely look into moving it up. The weatherwise it may be OK, the airlines will start the canceling stuff before the snow starts. 

Thanks, ironically I'm flying to MSP and they're getting the storm tonight and into tomorrow morning so I'm weighing that. I'd think they're pretty good at clearing snowing there but obviously safety is tops.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

As long as we aren't going by the disastrous Logan observer, id forecast 3-6" for BOS right now. They are in an a pretty decent spot latitude and longitude wise. 

If we get one more tick colder at 00z tonight I'd up the ante to 4-8".

 

When the bent back WF in the midlevels is oriented from NW to SE line, that is usually a good setup for BOS and NE MA. That's like a 3/19/13 setup or 12/16/07. Where ALB-SYR is pinging before Scooter does.  

 

Who does the observations at the airports? The FAA? Are they actually paid to do it like it's in their job description? Or are they just sort of doing a favor for the NWS?

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