Scraff Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Today is when the CAD strength gets noticed....book it Totally on board with that thought. We know CAD will always verify stronger than depicted. That’s chapter 6 of the Weenie Handbook. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 20 minutes ago, poolz1 said: 06z euro looks better for MD Line. Pretty tight gradient from 1 to 6 inches. This event has a lot of bust potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 1 hour ago, MD Snow said: It’s hard to ignore the warming trend across all guidance over the last 24 hrs. If that trend doesn’t stop today there is no reason to think that many in this sub will see mainly rain. Sunday night-Tuesday. It isn't as simple as just looking at a warming trend on the models. First off I would probably keep my focus mostly on the temp profile from the Euro which does a better job with its finer resolution then other globals. Then you have the GFS which handles CAD setups poorly most times and the Mesos which really aren't in range at this point. So focusing on the Euro what we have seen is not so much a degradation of the CAD but of the rates. Thus we are not getting the cooling through the column from past runs. Increase those initial rates just a little and you will once again see an expansion southward of the wintry precip as we see a better response with the temp profile. At this point I think the Euro probably has a pretty good handle on the CAD but we will get a better idea on that with the MESOs tonight and tomorrow. So assuming the Euro has the CAD profile correct it will probably come down to how much precip we see with the initial slug. For some reason the models have a hard time with WAA precip, quite often they underplay the initial WAA slug of moisture. So if that is the case here that may argue for a more wintry setup as we see a better response with the temps in the column. Another thing I would keep an eye on is where the initial impulse (sun) runs through to our south. If we see an adjustment southward of that track that will indicate the boundary is farther south as well. This means we will probably see a southward shifting of the temps, features and wintry weather as well. At this point, gun to head, I would say the general DC area sees some accumulations from the WAA but they are riding the line where just small changes here or there can make a world of difference. I do think Baltimore north will do fairly well where I think there is a shot of seeing warning level snows around the PA line and some of the favored locals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Well the Nam has a pretty solid round one and it's definitely not North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 1 hour ago, poolz1 said: 06z euro looks better for MD Line. Yeah but how much of that is snow and how much is slop 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 17 minutes ago, peribonca said: Well the Nam has a pretty solid round one and it's definitely not North Yeah but the snow maps have to be ignored. The conditional precip maps are showing mostly sleet/ice. I guess that’s nice to see other than just rain but it doesn’t appear to have much snow on the run to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 1 minute ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Yeah but the snow maps have to be ignored. The conditional precip maps are showing mostly sleet/ice. I guess that’s nice to see other than just rain but it doesn’t appear to have much snow on the run to me What I like is that's it's trending quite a bit wetter with the axis of precipitation especially starting over Kentucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Meh. The initial thump looks alot less solid on the icon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 JEBMAN told me i am getting shellacked with winter precipitation. That’s all i need to know. Things our going to turn in our favor today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Any thoughts as to why the precip that's falling in Texas currently isn't even showing up on the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 4 minutes ago, peribonca said: Any thoughts as to why the precip that's falling in Texas currently isn't even showing up on the GFS? Bc it’s apparently a worsening model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Thread: “Unpin me, please” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Imagine that. GFS is coming in a little colder during the WAA. Slightly better CAD signature as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 3 hours ago, MillvilleWx said: Yeah. That part is pretty abnormal. Like I said, we have really haven't seen much like this in the past for down here. It's an anomaly that will need to be further investigated to put all the pieces together. I guidance will adjust with the SOI and MJO progression and dampen the SE ridge over the next week, but some remnant version will stick in place is my feeling. We're kind of in a tough spot here because spring is approaching and we've missed on multiple good rain chances to our north. That's going to put us in a rare spot where a slight positive ENSO might exhibit an average to above average Fire Wx season. Trough along the PAC coast doesn't want to help us at all outside of some wind. That’s been my story and I’m sticking too, but would like to see more signs guidance is moving that way. good luck with the precip, that problem would Far eclipse our petty snow issues! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Noticeable shift south with the snow maps and increases to the north more in line with the Euro. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 31 minutes ago, peribonca said: Any thoughts as to why the precip that's falling in Texas currently isn't even showing up on the GFS? Govt shutdown lag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 GFS looks like the RGEM for part one. I66 cutoff. That would fit with the story of the winter so far. A win for atmospheric memory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Improvement on GFS but it's all still getting washed away by the deluge after it flips. Need significant improvement over next 48 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 If i expect rain, i can’t be disappointed right 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Improvement on GFS but it's all still getting washed away by the deluge after it flips. Need significant improvement over next 48 hours. If you are hoping for a scenario where there isn't rain afterwards and possibly a good bit of it you are probably out of luck. We are going to see rain, I think that's pretty much a given at this point. It is just a matter how much snow/frozen we can get before hand. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 4 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said: If i expect rain, i can’t be disappointed right I know right, you and I can drive 10 miles west in our county and experience a different world 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 12 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: If you are hoping for a scenario where there isn't rain afterwards and possibly a good bit of it you are probably out of luck. We are going to see rain, I think that's pretty much a given at this point. It is just a matter how much snow/frozen we can get before hand. I think most would accept rain...but they want a scenario where there is snow on the ground when the storm ends. There is a huge difference between 1-3” followed by 1” of 40 degree rain and 4-5” followed by freezing rain and then some light rain and 34 degrees. One ends with soggy grass and one ends with a nice thick 2-3” glacier. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I think most would accept rain...but they want a scenario where there is snow on the ground when the storm ends. There is a huge difference between 1-3” followed by 1” of 40 degree rain and 4-5” followed by freezing rain and then some light rain and 34 degrees. One ends with soggy grass and one ends with a nice thick 2-3” glacier. I know I'm ending up with wet grass. Only question is can I get a couple inches of frozen beforehand to get my snow total to double digits. That would represent a move from pathetic to just paltry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: I know I'm ending up with wet grass. Only question is can I get a couple inches of frozen beforehand to get my snow total to double digits. That would represent a move from pathetic to just paltry. Yea I’ll get there tomorrow but I’m not yet to the point of “lowered expectations” lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Yea I’ll get there tomorrow but I’m not yet to the point of “lowered expectations” lol Just about every model is kind to you isn't it? I'm in more of a could be ok could be nothing spot I think. I can definitely see 2-3" of snow here followed by freezing rain then cold rain. I think I watch my snow melt because its 50 on Wednesday not the rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Fairfax County is brining roads today. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 7 minutes ago, mattie g said: Fairfax County is brining roads today. You know what comes next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 “Um, ya about those TPS reports, I noticed you said rain, snow, sleet—2 out of those 3 would be great—yaaaa. “ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 12 minutes ago, mattie g said: Fairfax County is brining roads today. What a waste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 I see @usedtobe lurking. Havent seen him post hardly anything this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now