CAPE Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 At least Boston should see a few inches of snow before it all washes down the sewer. Poor bastards. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ji said: the GFS is lost...on an island..it dosent have the ability to handle CAD. Sad ending to a sad model Lol you tell yourself whatever you have too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 @Ji 18z GFS is an effin' disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Best chance of frozen here is the initial wave. I need that to get jacked up some so I can get an inch or 2 of snow/sleet to pad my snow totals before multiple waves of rain arrive thereafter. Useless snow, other than maybe getting into double digit territory for the season. Agreed. We need to juice up Sunday night as much as possible. Monday night/Tuesday heading in the wrong direction. With the normal bump north the last 24 to 48 hours I wouldn't even feel confident if I was in central pa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 But the ukmet scores very high I hear. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: But the ukmet scores very high I hear. 10" in my yard. We take! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 But every once in a blue moon things fall our way. It’s like golf. You take s beating all day but then hit one pure shot and you keep coming back for more. My golf game is typically just the beating and cursing at my clubs. Anywho, wound up systems into the Midwest will favor a stronger 850mb jet and strong low level WAA. The cold drainage from the high to the north will hold surface temps as long as the flow remains out of a northeast to easterly component. Any southerly shift will allow for weakening surface inversion and a much higher chance of pure rain as temps can climb above freezing. We absolutely need H5 to be flatter in order to avoid a quick degradation of the thermal environment with a weaker, and further east surface low. This would allow for a weaker LLJ and maintaining cold air longer. Areas most prone to turning rain reside along the 95 corridor east, and south of I-70 because of the slightly warmer 850 temps leading into the initial WAA precip, so less to work with. The northern crew can still hold frozen through the whole event, but ZR/IP signals are marginal with temps near freezing. Best case scenario is moisture field comes in quicker and more robust with 850mb frontogen placed over the region to provide decent rates to rack up snowfall and produce better ice crystal formation. As we warm aloft, we’ll see more clumped aggregates transition to sleet as the nose aloft pokes enough warm air. It’s going to change over to a mix for everyone at this point looking at guidance, but how long can we stay frozen is the question. That’ll be answered more over the weekend. Be sure to monitor Meso trends starting 0z Sunday as they will provide a better look at the initial thermals in place. . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 LWX: No blame as it’s 72 hours out Maybe balmy and 75 could be added oye—-here’s hoping to some positive trends tonight. Fun model watching At the moment it appears as though snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain will all be possible across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 38 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Best chance of frozen here is the initial wave. I need that to get jacked up some so I can get an inch or 2 of snow/sleet to pad my snow totals before multiple waves of rain arrive thereafter. Useless snow, other than maybe getting into double digit territory for the season. i haven't been very interested in this one. the setup is pretty terrible for wave 2. retreating airmass with a 500 low moving through michigan. i'd feel much better about cad if this was an apps runner, but this is a straight up GL cutter (per gfs). wave 1 is what we need to hang our hats on, or a much weaker, more southerly primary. those options are still possible, but the trend needs to happen asap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 40 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: @Ji 18z GFS is an effin' disaster. Understatement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 44 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Agreed. We need to juice up Sunday night as much as possible. Monday night/Tuesday heading in the wrong direction. With the normal bump north the last 24 to 48 hours I wouldn't even feel confident if I was in central pa. I dont....at all. lol Man I hope this friggin pattern change happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 23 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: My golf game is typically just the beating and cursing at my clubs. Anywho, wound up systems into the Midwest will favor a stronger 850mb jet and strong low level WAA. The cold drainage from the high to the north will hold surface temps as long as the flow remains out of a northeast to easterly component. Any southerly shift will allow for weakening surface inversion and a much higher chance of pure rain as temps can climb above freezing. We absolutely need H5 to be flatter in order to avoid a quick degradation of the thermal environment with a weaker, and further east surface low. This would allow for a weaker LLJ and maintaining cold air longer. Areas most prone to turning rain reside along the 95 corridor east, and south of I-70 because of the slightly warmer 850 temps leading into the initial WAA precip, so less to work with. The northern crew can still hold frozen through the whole event, but ZR/IP signals are marginal with temps near freezing. Best case scenario is moisture field comes in quicker and more robust with 850mb frontogen placed over the region to provide decent rates to rack up snowfall and produce better ice crystal formation. As we warm aloft, we’ll see more clumped aggregates transition to sleet as the nose aloft pokes enough warm air. It’s going to change over to a mix for everyone at this point looking at guidance, but how long can we stay frozen is the question. That’ll be answered more over the weekend. Be sure to monitor Meso trends starting 0z Sunday as they will provide a better look at the initial thermals in place. . Thank you for the great explanation! Keep working on the golf game! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 1 hour ago, Chris78 said: Agreed. We need to juice up Sunday night as much as possible. Monday night/Tuesday heading in the wrong direction. With the normal bump north the last 24 to 48 hours I wouldn't even feel confidewas in central pa. I've lived here my entire 55 years of my life and trust me, you can never ever feel confident about a snowstorm in central PA until it's on the ground. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 20 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I dont....at all. lol Man I hope this friggin pattern change happens. I wouldn't feel confident even if I was in part of NY State 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I wouldn't feel confident even if I was in part of NY State I’d take my chances in northern Pa or Anywhere in Ny. Northern Lanco is living on the edge. Just hoping the cold boundary sags south in the next few runs and the flow flattens for more of an overrunning type deal with the low heading so far west it could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Happy hour more of a drink our winter sorrows away? I’ll drink to that! Then again, I’ll drink to a cold front coming through sooooo... For real though. Stronger CAD will likely save some of us. Except @Ji Definitely 33 and white rain for him and him only. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 12z euro has some form of frozen for Westminster from 10pm Sunday-12pm Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 On 2/7/2019 at 12:44 PM, Bob Chill said: First time I've seen no shutout solutions DC northward. Very good run. I think we're getting close to locking in a CAD thump and not seeing much support if any to keep the primary from staying south of us. Still time to shift but with gun to head I'd say the chances of that are pretty low. famous last words Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 8, 2019 Author Share Posted February 8, 2019 12z Eps was the best run yet for this storm, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: famous last words Everyone has a post they might regret later. This winter has been a tough slog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Why would Bob regret his words Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 1 minute ago, Jandurin said: Why would Bob regret his words General comment. We all comment and post based on the evidence in front of us. Actually, not regret poor word choice. That’s the way it looked at that point. So point taken. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ji said: famous last words Already calling it? One would think you have never been to this rodeo before. After all your years of tracking you would think that you should be fully aware that in this type of setup calling winners in losers is pretty much folly at this range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 23 minutes ago, Scraff said: Happy hour more of a drink our winter sorrows away? I’ll drink to that! Then again, I’ll drink to a cold front coming through sooooo... For real though. Stronger CAD will likely save some of us. Except @Ji Definitely 33 and white rain for him and him only. Just finished two Aslin IPAs that were victim of the shitmaltz ordered earlier in 2018. So disappointing....but it’s beer. No idea what’s going to happen with this storm, but drinking makes it all better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: Already calling it? One would think you have never been to this rodeo before. After all your years of tracking you would think that you should be fully aware that in this type of setup calling winners in losers is pretty much folly at this range. your response is 5000 characters too short. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Well no one wants to say it but you know the writings on the wall when you can’t tell the storm thread from the banter thread. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 6 minutes ago, Yeoman said: your response is 5000 characters too short. Yours is 37 too long! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 My point was both bristow's and showme's The problem with the storm thread, psu, is everything's a little too anomalous That's way better than cold and dry or warm and wet ETA can't decide if I meant anomalous or ambiguous on reread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 24 hours ago now... any bets where this is heading??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 24 hours ago now... any bets where this is heading??? Somewhere bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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