Chris78 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Just now, frd said: Well, that is true. Just curious, so I had to ask. What did the ukie show last night? I didn't see it posted so I thought it must of not been good lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, Chris78 said: What did the ukie show last night? I didn't see it posted so I thought it must of not been good lol 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: I wouldn’t have said it like he did but I get where he is coming from. We have had a weirdly unevenly distributed snowfall year so far. I think some here that are already close to climo are in stats padder mode. A few more minor events and they will be happy. But for those still way way below climo we are “save this winter with an epic run” hunting. A couple minor events won’t cut it. On a personal note, while I do like snow while it’s falling and it’s pretty...I mostly like snow for functional reasons. I like playing in it, sledding with my son, taking walks at night with the moonlight making it sparkle. All that is rendered moot if it washes away immediately, especially if I’m at work when it’s snowing. But to each their own. Some will be happy with 3” that’s gets washed away and no one should ruin their enjoyment. I still think you have a decent shot at staying all frozen. Even with the 0z euro solution that isn’t to far fetched. This has the chance of being a pretty epic event for areas north and west with elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 8, 2019 Author Share Posted February 8, 2019 Overnight runs also made a clear step towards more overrunning precip Sunday night and Monday and link that with the main event Tuesday. Still obvious we don’t have this locked down. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 14 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Fv3 06z looks awful. Mostly rain for Monday/Tuesday. Losing the fv3 is concerning because it's always snow happy. Both the Euro and fv3 give our area very little frozen. Bad trends overnight unfortunately. Hopefully we see a reversal today. It did give us 2’ feet like 24 hrs ago. I just think it’s a crap model. If this is a true cad storm, globals will struggle picking up on the extent of the cold. Still plenty of time to trend to crap or improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 I think Bob has this right...we have all lived here long enough to know climo. This event screams that low level cold will hold longer. I don't expect all snow but I also think that when we rain its 32 and rain which to me means if we happen to get several inches of snow/sleet first that it won't get washed away like some believe. Of course I can be wrong...just one mans opinion 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Overnight runs also made a clear step towards more overrunning precip Sunday night and Monday and link that with the main event Tuesday. Still obvious we don’t have this locked down. Which opens the door for someone to potentially get a long drawn out event starting Sunday night into Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 1 minute ago, frd said: @showmethesnow is the storm next week part of the process that yields the AM GFS MECS ? Do you buy it on potential only or not ? Our storm early next week runs up and becomes a 50/50 backing the flow and giving us a deep dropping trough that leads into the weekend coastal. So yeah it is a realistic solution and a nice setup. Assuming we have a 50/50, which I believe we will have, it will really be dependent on what we see with the NS that is dropping down into the west a few days earlier before the storm. And needless to say the models have had issues with the NS most of the winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 8 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Our storm early next week runs up and becomes a 50/50 backing the flow and giving us a deep dropping trough that leads into the weekend coastal. So yeah it is a realistic solution and a nice setup. Assuming we have a 50/50, which I believe we will have, it will really be dependent on what we see with the NS that is dropping down into the west a few days earlier before the storm. And needless to say the models have had issues with the NS most of the winter. Over your years of looking at the models in winters with the NS and set ups close to this, is it true the GFS does better than the Euro or is that a myth? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 23 minutes ago, frd said: Lol. Well atleast we still have the ukie on our side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 17 minutes ago, MD Snow said: It did give us 2’ feet like 24 hrs ago. I just think it’s a crap model. If this is a true cad storm, globals will struggle picking up on the extent of the cold. Still plenty of time to trend to crap or improve. Not sure when it's suppose to become the operational but imho it appears to be struggling. It's seems prone to wild swings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 all of the models look pretty prone to wild swings right now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 16 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: It be nice to have the ops and ensembles all lookin good but What I did like about the overnight runs was the continued push from ensemble guidance to increase high strength and resulting CAD especially the Eps and Geps which both made decent shifts in that regard which is the engine force for this event . I like your enthusiasm. It just makes me nervous when the Euro doesn't like it much and we are about 4 days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 1 minute ago, Jandurin said: all of the models look pretty prone to wild swings right now The only definitive statement in this thread that is accurate 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: Lol. Well atleast we still have the ukie on our side. Well if we’re playing that game. 6z Gfs is 3-6” region wide, cmc is 2-5”, icon is 1-4”, 0z euro had 6” for the northern tier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 1 minute ago, Jandurin said: all of the models look pretty prone to wild swings right now That's very true lol. On many occasions this winter I've seen the fv3 on its on only to come back to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Its not a good setup, so this is no shocker. Its looking more and more like an inch or 2 and then a rainer vs 4-8 inches and a dry slot. Makes sense. We will be waiting the precip as the temp goes up. I think next weekends storm is one to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I like your enthusiasm. It just makes me nervous when the Euro doesn't like it much and we are about 4 days out. It looked pretty darn good for you, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Just now, MD Snow said: It looked pretty darn good for you, IMO. I hear you . I just don't like the trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I hear you . I just don't like the trends. Yeah, but it seems the trend on the euro has been to increase totals to the north and west of the cities if anything. The look has improved for those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I hear you . I just don't like the trends. I work with numbers every day and have to look at YOY and week over week and day to day trends. I'd be interested in your definition of trends? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: That's very true lol. On many occasions this winter I've seen the fv3 on its on only to come back to reality. I have witnessed numerous times over the past 10 years the GFS have a storm and having the same outcome 3 days in a row only to collapse to the Euro closder to the event. The fv3, I have no idea what is wrong with it. Some people get rather upset when you say the Euro is really good, because it too has ups and downs and since the last couple upgrades it appears to have lost its edge in some types of weather patterns. It also too has bias as well. So bottom line, if you want security in a forecast you need to have the Euro in your corner. Maybe as we progress to the better pattern with blocking in place that should provide forecasts that are more credible and somewhat easier for the model to resolve. That starts later next week and hopefully continues until early March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 trends are anytime it shows green instead of blue on the map 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 8, 2019 Author Share Posted February 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I hear you . I just don't like the trends. There are no trends yet. Yesterday the models “trended” toward a weaker primary. Last night they went the other way. It’s still pretty scattershot within a plausible envelope of possibilities. We know the general setup right now. Details that will impact our sensible weather still have to be sorted out. 9 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 12 minutes ago, frd said: Over your years of looking at the models in winters with the NS and set ups close to this, is it true the GFS does better than the Euro or is that a myth? In years past I would have favored the GFS over the Euro in regards to the NS even though the GFS would tend to over play that feature. But we are in a new age with continually and rapidly upgraded models so I am not sure that is really something you can look for anymore. Now I haven't been following next weekend at all as i have been focusing on this upcoming event. So I really don't have a feel for what to expect in regards to the NS energy dropping down in the NW nor which model I would favor at this time. Probably wouldn't matter anyway because they both have handled the NS pretty badly this year especially when it comes to in the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 8 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: In years past I would have favored the GFS over the Euro in regards to the NS even though the GFS would tend to over play that feature. But we are in a new age with continually and rapidly upgraded models so I am not sure that is really something you can look for anymore. Now I haven't been following next weekend at all as i have been focusing on this upcoming event. So I really don't have a feel for what to expect in regards to the NS energy dropping down in the NW nor which model I would favor at this time. Probably wouldn't matter anyway because they both have handled the NS pretty badly this year especially when it comes to in the NW. Thanks, it is hard to compete with the computer resources and layers of the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 I still think that we all see snow at some point between Sunday and Tuesday. The trend seems to be to weaken the high pressure/CAD somewhat over the past day of runs. Thats my biggest concern. Posted below are the GFS temps at 7am Tuesday. I will say the precip is coming in quicker than it was yesterday so it helps offsets the cad not being as strong. Also this could all reverse today and we all get a warning event. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: There are no trends yet. Yesterday the models “trended” toward a weaker primary. Last night they went the other way. It’s still pretty scattershot within a plausible envelope of possibilities. We know the general setup right now. Details that will impact our sensible weather still have to be sorted out. I've been trying to keep a good perspective on this one. I think Bob mentioned yesterday that the models have been doing decently well recently. We knew about this threat window like 10 days ago. We knew 2 days ago that this probably wouldn't be an all snow storm. And now the model's are starting to hone in on a final overall solution 4 days out. That's pretty darn good if you ask me. We knew this was going to be a boundary type deal for our area. Those setups always have winners and losers for area. I think the real winners with this set up will be the northern and western crew but the corridor is still in the game for at least a high end advisory event. So with that said, this can still go to crap but right now it looks like it could be a nice little event for most. Random note - Is it me or does it feel like the FV3 with it's crazy 1'-2' amounts for this event totally ruined it. I think if you take those runs away everyone would have a much better perspective on this and realize that like you said, there are no trends. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 15 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I still think that we all see snow at some point between Sunday and Tuesday. The trend seems to be to weaken the high pressure/CAD somewhat over the past day of runs. Thats my biggest concern. Posted below are the GFS temps at 7am Tuesday. I will say the precip is coming in quicker than it was yesterday so it helps offsets the cad not being as strong. Also this could all reverse today and we all get a warning event. Fingers crossed. Good point. However, the 6z even with its trends over the last few runs still got close, if not gave you, a warning level event. Edit - Also, isn’t the fact that the storm is coming in faster the reason for the erosion of the cold air faster? That’s not a trend towards a weaker cad setup. The whole system has moved up in time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 1 hour ago, jaydreb said: 6z FV3 is as bad as 0z. All rain for DC metro. The FV3 has just been horrid lately IMO and I’m afraid when it takes over as the permanent GFS. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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