Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Was the Euro good? Haven’t had the chance to check back posts. Just got home. Snow to ice to rain Id imagine? Euro was better with cad/mids but totally failed on waa precip. Verbatim it sucked. Add in a normal slug of waa and a lot of folks would hit warning level snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 It's a pretty bad look early on with the fv3, but the CAD strengthens after this remarkably. The main event is a lot of rain though. and the rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: 18z fv3 is a mess of everything! Can you link us or post it? thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: It's a pretty bad look early on with the fv3, but the CAD strengthens after this remarkably. The main event is a lot of rain though. Yeah. Tough to tell from the maps but looks like DC straddles the 0c line until about hour 115. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro was better with cad/mids but totally failed on waa precip. Verbatim it sucked. Add in a normal slug of waa and a lot of folks would hit warning level snowfall. Roger. Always a fly in the ointment but I feel if the CAD holds we can take chances with precip. Sure will go with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Now this is a low confidence forecast. Don't even need to read the AFD for details. Talk about hedging your bets. Sunday Night A chance of rain and snow before 1am, then a chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Monday A chance of snow before 10am, then a chance of rain and snow between 10am and 1pm, then a chance of rain after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Monday Night Rain and snow likely, becoming all snow after 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Tuesday Snow likely before 7am, then rain and snow likely between 7am and 10am, then rain likely after 10am. Cloudy, with a high near 44. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Tuesday Night A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Wednesday A chance of rain and snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 49. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 27. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2019 Author Share Posted February 7, 2019 34 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I really think that just going off history at this stage will be more accurate than op runs every 6 hours. Get a primary north of our latitude to the west and it's going to mix regardless of a transfer. Imo- all a transfer does is give us more rain than help snowfall/ice. Doesn't matter what I want but I would prefer no transfer at all unless the primary doesn't make it north of our latitude. From what I'm seeing though it sure looks like the primary is making it north. Eh don’t know about that. Cyclonic flow around a distinct LP area will help reinforce CAD and bring more precip. Some of the random great looks we’ve had for this event have the energy split around 50:50 between the primry and coastal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 38 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Was the Euro good? Haven’t had the chance to check back posts. Just got home. Snow to ice to rain Id imagine? Last I heard it's trending better. Hopefully the trending continues. But I think the GFS has lost its usefulness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Eh don’t know about that. Cyclonic flow around a distinct LP area will help reinforce CAD and bring more precip. Some of the random great looks we’ve had for this event have the energy split around 50:50 between the primry and coastal. My general rule of thumb is a transfer needs to be mostly complete with slp forming south of the VA tidewater for it to work out as all snow. I'm not seeing anything heading that direction so my vote goes to no transfer/thump drizzle. I suppose if the primary trends weaker in general it could work but then the risk of the waa getting interrupted and the coastal pummeling NEMD increases while i watch flurries not stick on my bare grass. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: My general rule of thumb is a transfer needs to be mostly complete with slp forming south of the VA tidewater for it to work out as all snow. I'm not seeing anything heading that direction so my vote goes to no transfer/thump drizzle. I suppose if the primary trends weaker in general it could work but then the risk of the waa getting interrupted and the coastal pummeling NEMD increases while i watch flurries not stick on my bare grass. Hybrid is what we want. Get the waa thump. Then enough secondary to keep low level cold and weaken the primary. Dry slot. End with snow otg. If there is no secondary and the primary cuts our temps go to 45 and we rain hard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 18z gefs says we're getting more snow early next week than many think. Best run yet and I thought 12z looked pretty good. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 34 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Last I heard it's trending better. Hopefully the trending continues. But I think the GFS has lost its usefulness. Bob said GEFS looked solid at 18z. Maybe has legs. Not much wiggle room with this CAD set up in my opinion. High is not strong enough and far removed. I like CAD that wedges to NC. I don’t think this does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 18z gefs says we're getting more snow early next week than many think. Best run yet and I thought 12z looked pretty good. You ninja’d me. Euro kind of went this way too if you disregard it’s weird lack of qpf. I’m becoming slightly more interested... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Bob said GEFS looked solid at 18z. Maybe has legs. Not much wiggle room with this CAD set up in my opinion. High is not strong enough and far removed. I like CAD that wedges to NC. I don’t think this does. Gefs is honking the CAD horn. This is the best gefs fun through d6 all year. The big storm looked like crap 6 days out. Eta: and this is a very important eta... gefs snow algo includes sleet and zr as snow but it's still a very good run. Solid CAD is evident on vast majority of solutions. Good hp placement and lots of qpf. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Gefs is honking the CAD horn. This is the best gefs fun through d6 all year. The big storm looked like crap 6 days out. Jeez that does look good. Thanks Bob. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Just now, BristowWx said: Jeez that does look good. Thanks Bob. See my eta. Snow is overdone by quite a bit but it does tell us that the trend colder in the mids is real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Gefs is honking the CAD horn. This is the best gefs fun through d6 all year. The big storm looked like crap 6 days out. E4 it is... its another straight weenie run all the way through too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danajames Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 The best case scenario is to get an early snow thump, have a period of lighter mixing if not to all drizzle and then the dry slot takes over and we say goodbye to the system. If we get any heavy rain out of this, I'm going to be pissed. That's the absolute last thing anyone needs or wants at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Gefs is honking the CAD horn. This is the best gefs fun through d6 all year. The big storm looked like crap 6 days out. Eta: and this is a very important eta... gefs snow algo includes sleet and zr as snow but it's still a very good run. Solid CAD is evident on vast majority of solutions. Good hp placement and lots of qpf. Stop it..you are coming close to making me believe. I can't get there before Saturday. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 18 minutes ago, Danajames said: The best case scenario is to get an early snow thump, have a period of lighter mixing if not to all drizzle and then the dry slot takes over and we say goodbye to the system. If we get any heavy rain out of this, I'm going to be pissed. That's the absolute last thing anyone needs or wants at this point. A pure snow scenario is a tall order for most areas south of 70 east of 81. Rain will likely be part of this equation. No reason to fret over it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 I wanted to add that some of the snow from the GEFS is from the Monday deal sliding south of us as well. EPS has that signal too of an inch or two Monday in a narrow stripe on the north edge of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: A pure snow scenario is a tall order for most areas south of 70 east of 81. Rain will likely be part of this equation. No reason to fret over it. Yea, especially considering we hit 5 all snow events in a row. We're due to mix. We should be really thankful to have a threat so soon after a really warm stretch. We can often waste 1-2 weeks recovering from a torch. Can't tell a soul how they should feel but this event is a lucky gift if we get any accum snow out of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danajames Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: A pure snow scenario is a tall order for most areas south of 70 east of 81. Rain will likely be part of this equation. No reason to fret over it. Oh, I'm sure we'll get some rain but I just don't want any more of that heavy crap. After 70+" of precipitation last year, I'd like to start 2019 on a more "normal" pace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, especially considering we hit 5 all snow events in a row. We're due to mix. We should be really thankful to have a threat so soon after a really warm stretch. We can often waste 1-2 weeks recovering from a torch. Can't tell a soul how they should feel but this event is a lucky gift if we get any accum snow out of it. Of course we could luck out with thump mix dry slot. Why not right. Well some of us. I tend to forget how big the forum actually is. EZF might be mostly rain, psu mostly snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Gotta like the trends today especially with the mid levels. Considering we hit the 70s this week, pretty remarkable to be talking potential snow early next week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Did the 18z euro give us anything on Sunday evening/Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 27 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Did the 18z euro give us anything on Sunday evening/Monday? Through 12z Monday, only a dusting north of the city. Precip isn’t the issue, temps are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Eps 18z for the bigger event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 18z EPS improved, especially for northern half of the sub forum. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: 18z EPS improved, especially for northern half of the sub forum. Wow! That's quite the bump for western and northern areas. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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