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February 10-12, 2019 Storm


WxUSAF
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17 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Looks as though all things are pointing for snow. Nice agreement taking shape. Perhaps consensus is beginning to loom

Those SV snowmaps are flawed...I wouldn’t take their output verbatim but the bigger takeaway is the trends towards a colder solution.  Also I don’t think we’re close to a consensus this far out.

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9 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Hey guys! Still got 5 days on this one. Plenty of time for it to go to crap or get a warning level event for most. Euro is close as is right now. 

5 days is an eternity. 

Yeah but if you listen to Bob he has been noting how majority of the events this season you guys sort of backed into or trended the right way in the medium range. Maybe it happens again?

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Same rollercoaster every storm guys. I say this once per storm thread. Storms show up on maps in the long range, trend the complete opposite way we need it to, and then slowly trends back our way in the 3-5 day range. It’s normal. These models are 100% guessing from day 3 on. There are a ton of moving parts, most of which aren’t even close to being onshore or “in place”. As we get more data to work with, models begin to come to a consensus. Far too many making predictions when are still so far out. This can be anything from mostly rain to warning snowfall at this point. Today and tonight’s trends showed us that snow is looking like it will be part of the equation. That’s all people should be taking from models at this point. Thermos, precip amounts... none of it matters. Just the setup and moving pieces on the map. 

Climo for our area says two things

1) seeing significant snow days after a very warm spell is not a likely occurrence 

However...

2) it likes to snow in Maryland PA and VA during the week of Valentine’s Day 

which ones wins out? 

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7 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Same rollercoaster every storm guys. I say this once per storm thread. Storms show up on maps in the long range, trend the complete opposite way we need it to, and then slowly trends back our way in the 3-5 day range. It’s normal. These models are 100% guessing from day 3 on. There are a ton of moving parts, most of which aren’t even close to being onshore or “in place”. As we get more data to work with, models begin to come to a consensus. Far too many making predictions when are still so far out. This can be anything from mostly rain to warning snowfall at this point. Today and tonight’s trends showed us that snow is looking like it will be part of the equation. That’s all people should be taking from models at this point. Thermos, precip amounts... none of it matters. Just the setup and moving pieces on the map. 

Climo for our area says two things

1) seeing significant snow days after a very warm spell is not a likely occurrence 

However...

2) it likes to snow in Maryland PA and VA during the week of Valentine’s Day 

which ones wins out? 

This was like reading Chinese 

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2 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

If we get a decently placed High and a strong CAD setup the NAM could be on to something. And I’m ducking as i say this but the NAM’s strong suit is sniffing out a CAD setup

Sure.  It’s all on the table.  Mesos are better with CAD once we get closer.  But my guess is we have more solutions to be had.  

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