stormtracker Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 9 minutes ago, Ji said: Gfs has hecs next weekend lol And it had one a week ago too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 And it had one a week ago too. It did? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 13 minutes ago, Ji said: 15 minutes ago, stormtracker said: And it had one a week ago too. It did? I’m with you now we need a historic events to finish off the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 1 hour ago, MD Snow said: A sloppy few inches that you may not be able to see? I’m sorry but is it invisible? Also, a sloppy few inches can do something for our totals in the corridor. Many of us would be fine with a sloppy couple of inches. I wouldn’t have said it like he did but I get where he is coming from. We have had a weirdly unevenly distributed snowfall year so far. I think some here that are already close to climo are in stats padder mode. A few more minor events and they will be happy. But for those still way way below climo we are “save this winter with an epic run” hunting. A couple minor events won’t cut it. On a personal note, while I do like snow while it’s falling and it’s pretty...I mostly like snow for functional reasons. I like playing in it, sledding with my son, taking walks at night with the moonlight making it sparkle. All that is rendered moot if it washes away immediately, especially if I’m at work when it’s snowing. But to each their own. Some will be happy with 3” that’s gets washed away and no one should ruin their enjoyment. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I wouldn’t have said it like he did but I get where he is coming from. We have had a weirdly unevenly distributed snowfall year so far. I think some here that are already close to climo are in stats padder mode. A few more minor events and they will be happy. But for those still way way below climo we are “save this winter with an epic run” hunting. A couple minor events won’t cut it. On a personal note, while I do like snow while it’s falling and it’s pretty...I mostly like snow for functional reasons. I like playing in it, sledding with my son, taking walks at night with the moonlight making it sparkle. All that is rendered moot if it washes away immediately, especially if I’m at work when it’s snowing. But to each their own. Some will be happy with 3” that’s gets washed away and no one should ruin their enjoyment. Couldn't agree more with this. I have probably 10 or 11 inches this year, but I don't care about reaching climo. I care about meeting expectations, and expectations were super high this year. It's been a few rough winters outside of the blizzard in 2016, so when the hype is off the charts, we need to cash in and we haven't. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I wouldn’t have said it like he did but I get where he is coming from. We have had a weirdly unevenly distributed snowfall year so far. I think some here that are already close to climo are in stats padder mode. A few more minor events and they will be happy. But for those still way way below climo we are “save this winter with an epic run” hunting. A couple minor events won’t cut it. On a personal note, while I do like snow while it’s falling and it’s pretty...I mostly like snow for functional reasons. I like playing in it, sledding with my son, taking walks at night with the moonlight making it sparkle. All that is rendered moot if it washes away immediately, especially if I’m at work when it’s snowing. But to each their own. Some will be happy with 3” that’s gets washed away and no one should ruin their enjoyment. I am with you on this. It doesn't have to last a week, but I want a chance to get out in it and enjoy it. Snow that is immediately washed away is nothing but a stats padder. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Just some general thoughts after looking over the 00Z runs. Both the Euro and GFS suites are coming into fairly good agreement with the general long wave pattern we will see through this upcoming storm. The Canadian can also be added to this. We might be getting to the stage where we can begin focusing on the finer details which to be honest will be difficult to nail down from what I am seeing until we are much closer in time. Both are showing a tendency to increase heights from the northern extension of WAR and rolling it over top the trough dropping down through the central US. This is turning that trough negative tilt much quicker and closing it off. Barring some extreme changes at 500's on the models there is really no hope we see that feature even take a sniff at our region let alone drop underneath us. So the most meaningful impact here will be a tendency for a stronger primary driving into the Lakes as it will have better upper level support. Even though the long wave pattern may be getting nailed down by the models we are still very far from having on good handle on how things will evolve in the East. Though the models may be right in the general evolution (Monday impulse, WAA snows, change to rain) there are many complexities that will determine the final outcome in regards to ground truth. And this is to say the models are even right at this point as I am not sure I would put good money on it. At this point in time my focus will key on what we see with that impulse that rolls through Monday as it will probably set the stage for whatever happens afterwards. The impulse will give us a good indication of where the boundary will set up leading into the WAA snows. You see snow then you will most likely see some measurable with the WAA. Best outcome there is to see that as far south as possible. So those to the north of it that may lament they are missing that snow they will probably make up for it with better WAA snows. The models have been back and forth with that feature over the last few runs so that is a work still in progress. The impulse will also impact the location of coastal development that the models favor at this time. Where that impulse exits the coast will leave energy/weakness in its wake for the initial development to begin. Also the amount of energy left behind will probably be key on how quickly we see that coastal strengthen. This impulse is also weak as it is riding along the boundary and only begins to strengthen as it is heading OTS so it is having very little impact on the boundary except for possibly a very slight shift south. If it strengthens quicker then projected we would also see a more noticeable shifting south of the boundary. To throw another possible complexity into the equation the models (especially the Euro) may now be seeing a secondary impulse riding along the boundary just in front of the WAA. If that is the case then it would make an already complex setup even more difficult to get a handle on and may throw my thoughts on the first impulse out the window. All in all it will be interesting to track as small changes here or there could have very meaningful impacts on ground truth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I wouldn’t have said it like he did but I get where he is coming from. We have had a weirdly unevenly distributed snowfall year so far. I think some here that are already close to climo are in stats padder mode. A few more minor events and they will be happy. But for those still way way below climo we are “save this winter with an epic run” hunting. A couple minor events won’t cut it. On a personal note, while I do like snow while it’s falling and it’s pretty...I mostly like snow for functional reasons. I like playing in it, sledding with my son, taking walks at night with the moonlight making it sparkle. All that is rendered moot if it washes away immediately, especially if I’m at work when it’s snowing. But to each their own. Some will be happy with 3” that’s gets washed away and no one should ruin their enjoyment. yu do realize you can do all this stuff while its snowing right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I wouldn’t have said it like he did but I get where he is coming from. We have had a weirdly unevenly distributed snowfall year so far. I think some here that are already close to climo are in stats padder mode. A few more minor events and they will be happy. But for those still way way below climo we are “save this winter with an epic run” hunting. A couple minor events won’t cut it. On a personal note, while I do like snow while it’s falling and it’s pretty...I mostly like snow for functional reasons. I like playing in it, sledding with my son, taking walks at night with the moonlight making it sparkle. All that is rendered moot if it washes away immediately, especially if I’m at work when it’s snowing. But to each their own. Some will be happy with 3” that’s gets washed away and no one should ruin their enjoyment. Its possible to like both. I enjoy all snow including watching 2 minutes of flurries to small accumulations to washed away to the big dogs. I love going out and playing in it and just walking and taking pictures to sitting on the couch just looking in the air and not paying attention if its sticking or not To add I don't really care about the total end number at the end of the season. Each event is what I enjoy not some chest thumping total at the end. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Snow that falls and gets washed away a couple hours later is more like a cruel tease. Just rain instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 7 minutes ago, Ji said: yu do realize you can do all this stuff while its snowing right? Maybe...but I do work and have life to deal with and if the window to enjoy it is 6 hours there is a good chance I’ll miss it. We should stop this though. Some don’t care if it washes away. Some do. Neither is right or wrong. Different opinions based on feelings. Arguing about this is silly and will muck up the thread. I’ll keep my displeasure at rain to myself from now on to not bother those that don’t care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 9 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Its possible to like both. I enjoy all snow including watching 2 minutes of flurries to small accumulations to washed away to the big dogs. I love going out and playing in it and just walking and taking pictures to sitting on the couch just looking in the air and not paying attention if its sticking or not To add I don't really care about the total end number at the end of the season. Each event is what I enjoy not some chest thumping total at the end. I wasn’t trying to change anyone’s mind lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 06Z GEFS saw a very good improvement on the snowfall means especially north of DC. DC does pick up an extra inch (5 1/2") but those around the PA line picked up an additional 2 inches (N Balt/Carroll now 6-7"). Most ensemble members are looking pretty sweet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: 06Z GEFS saw a very good improvement on the snowfall means especially north of DC. DC does pick up an extra inch (5 1/2") but those around the PA line picked up an additional 2 inches (N Balt/Carroll now 6-7"). Most ensemble members are looking pretty sweet. How much of it is the bogus sleet/freezing rain crap? Especially since it seems to count even stuff that falls at 33-34 degrees lol. I really wish they would fix that. ETA: better is better...wasn’t trying to say it’s not better, just wish we got a better interpretation on “snow” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: I wasn’t trying to change anyone’s mind lol. Oh I know I just wanted to add my two cents. I definitely understand your line of thinking though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: How much of it is the bogus sleet/freezing rain crap? Especially since it seems to count even stuff that falls at 33-34 degrees lol. I really wish they would fix that. Far to soon to even worry about that. The only thing I am taking away from it is that we are seeing an snowier/icer/colder solution being thrown at us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Just now, showmethesnow said: Far to soon to even worry about that. The only thing I am taking away from it is that we are seeing an snowier/icer/colder solution being thrown at us. Like I added above...better is better so that’s good. But in these marginal setups that issue can throw the gefs snow mean way off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Maybe...but I do work and have life to deal with and if the window to enjoy it is 6 hours there is a good chance I’ll miss it. We should stop this though. Some don’t care if it washes away. Some do. Neither is right or wrong. Different opinions based on feelings. Arguing about this is silly and will muck up the thread. I’ll keep my displeasure at rain to myself from now on to not bother those that don’t care. I agree 100%. The worst snowstorms are the ones that you know will be gone right away. Even the wintry week we had last week wasn't as fun because I knew the blowtorch would destroy all the snow in a few days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 42 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I wouldn’t have said it like he did but I get where he is coming from. We have had a weirdly unevenly distributed snowfall year so far. I think some here that are already close to climo are in stats padder mode. A few more minor events and they will be happy. But for those still way way below climo we are “save this winter with an epic run” hunting. A couple minor events won’t cut it. On a personal note, while I do like snow while it’s falling and it’s pretty...I mostly like snow for functional reasons. I like playing in it, sledding with my son, taking walks at night with the moonlight making it sparkle. All that is rendered moot if it washes away immediately, especially if I’m at work when it’s snowing. But to each their own. Some will be happy with 3” that’s gets washed away and no one should ruin their enjoyment. Well put! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 I'll take snow anytime! Love watching it fall! Will jebwalk while it is falling.. and find it even more special because it will be gone soon! Although heartbreaking at turnover, the fun is still there, even if only for a brief bit! We are spoiled when we get snow! All about perspective! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 the faster the snow melts the better jk lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 6z FV3 is as bad as 0z. All rain for DC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 37 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: 06Z GEFS saw a very good improvement on the snowfall means especially north of DC. DC does pick up an extra inch (5 1/2") but those around the PA line picked up an additional 2 inches (N Balt/Carroll now 6-7"). Most ensemble members are looking pretty sweet. Are we still in the usable range of the GEFS? At what point are they less useful? 72 hours? Always wondered that and seen numbers kicked around. Happy Tracking Friday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Fv3 06z looks awful. Mostly rain for Monday/Tuesday. Losing the fv3 is concerning because it's always snow happy. Both the Euro and fv3 give our area very little frozen. Bad trends overnight unfortunately. Hopefully we see a reversal today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 With a 1041 HP north of Maine, I would think that we would have been in pretty good shape with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Fv3 06z looks awful. Mostly rain for Monday/Tuesday. Losing the fv3 is concerning because it's always snow happy. Both the Euro and fv3 give our area very little frozen. Bad trends overnight unfortunately. Hopefully we see a reversal today. No real faith in the UkMet ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 1 minute ago, frd said: No real faith in the UkMet ? Not really. I know it scores decent but at the surface It's had a rough winter. Atleast where it counts. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 13 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Are we still in the usable range of the GEFS? At what point are they less useful? 72 hours? Always wondered that and seen numbers kicked around. Happy Tracking Friday! Day 3 is pretty much my cutoff point but that can flex somewhat depending on how consistent the models are running from run over run. Still some utility with the ensembles inside three days but that is more in the way of throwing up possible red flags and/or verification of some of the finer details within the ops themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: Not really. I know it scores decent but at the surface It's had a rough winter. Atleast where it counts. Lol Well, that is true. Just curious, so I had to ask. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Day 3 is pretty much my cutoff point but that can flex somewhat depending on how consistent the models are running from run over run. Still some utility with the ensembles within three days but that is more in the way of throwing up possible red flags and/or verification of some of the finer details within the ops themselves. @showmethesnow is the storm next week part of the process that yields the AM GFS MECS ? Do you buy it on potential only or not ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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