jaydreb Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Don’t really see more of a coastal signal? 12z 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 23 minutes ago, frd said: showme, are the more robost solutions ones in which individual EPS members may be keying on a coastal, or is it simply more strongly WAA related, or can't you tell. Thanks Just a quick look mind you. But many of the members are showing signs of development of some sort of a low off the east coast. And in fact I did see a few that are actually impacting our region. Now how what we are seeing now compares to the 00Z I have no idea. Just don't have the time right this second to really dive into it. Sorry. Maybe this evening if I get a chance I will look a little deeper. One thing I did notice is that we saw a further weakening of the primary into the Lakes of another 4 mbs. So that is 12 mbs in pressure the projected mean low has lost in 24 hours. Also looks to be a slight shift eastward of the track as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 I am pretty confident that we are going to get hit out this way at this point. This is the perfect setup for those of us north and west to get plastered pretty well. I am little concerned about just how cold the air is going to be though. The timing and position of the HP will mean everything. If we can get the cold air locked in early enough we usually do well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 11 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Just a quick look mind you. But many of the members are showing signs of development of some sort of a low off the east coast. And in fact I did see a few that are actually impacting our region. Now how what we are seeing now compares to the 00Z I have no idea. Just don't have the time right this second to really dive into it. Sorry. Maybe this evening if I get a chance I will look a little deeper. One thing I did notice is that we saw a further weakening of the primary into the Lakes of another 4 mbs. So that is 12 mbs in pressure the projected mean low has lost in 24 hours. Also looks to be a slight shift eastward of the track as well. Thanks, a million showme !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 18z NAM starts off frozen out in lala land FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: 18z NAM starts off frozen out in lala land FWIW It’s worth quite a bit. I think the NAM will lead the way with CAD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 57 minutes ago, BristowWx said: It’s worth quite a bit. I think the NAM will lead the way with CAD. It might be worth something in its depiction of the CAD potential but there’s not a lot of data that shows as much precip as it does Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Things looking fairly similar on 18z gfs so far compared to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 18z GFS similar to the 12z, slightly less cold around. Not sure that any of the snow it shows would really stick on pavement without good rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Looks like a better thump of snow possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 lol 18z GFS has precip in C VA starting at hour 84... but doesn't get it up too N VA/DC/MD until 102 when the HP is in great position and its snow at 102 and 108 so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 GFS has a little better CAD this run compared to 12Z. Cold at 850 Down to roughly Harrisonburg. Really nice thump incoming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Looks like a transfer trying at 114... yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Good thing the GFS is bad at CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 1 minute ago, yoda said: Looks like a transfer trying at 114... yes? Looks like a transfer near Norfolk at 120? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2019 Author Share Posted February 7, 2019 18z GFS definitely puts more energy into the piece that transfers to the coast. Subtle differences from 12z, but ends up a bit better for us in the only way we care about. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Not much ice on this run...snow to rain basically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 126 SLP coastal is just SE of ACY... dry slot working in I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Just now, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Not much ice on this run...snow to rain basically Yeah. And not a ton of rain at that. This has thump, drizzle and dry slot written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 I refuse to look at the replaceable gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: 18z GFS definitely puts more energy into the piece that transfers to the coast. Subtle differences from 12z, but ends up a bit better for us in the only way we care about. Snowmap says its worse but not going to concern myself with that at this point. Pretty clear signal for a CAD thump early Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2019 Author Share Posted February 7, 2019 Just now, jaydreb said: Snowmap says its worse but not going to concern myself with that at this point. Pretty clear signal for a CAD thump early Tuesday. Only because 12z had sleet. 18z is easily more snow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Yeah. And not a ton of rain at that. This has thump, drizzle and dry slot written all over it. Idk 120 looks pretty rainy to me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Just now, WxUSAF said: Only because 12z had sleet. 18z is easily more snow. True. 18z has a snow sounding at 114 IMBY. 12z didn’t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Idk 120 looks pretty rainy to me Definitely an IMBY situation. But I think most of us would dryslot before too much rain falls IF the GFS is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Just now, clskinsfan said: Definitely an IMBY situation. But I think most of us would dryslot before too much rain falls IF the GFS is right. You’ll cash in on this one. Perfect spot for an imperfect set up 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: You’ll cash in on this one. Perfect spot for an imperfect set up Grab on to the EURO no matter where it takes you. GFS is an imperfect model. Transfer takes too long and we're dryslotted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Just now, Wonderdog said: Grab on to the EURO no matter where it takes you. GFS is an imperfect model. Transfer takes too long and we're dryslotted. Was the Euro good? Haven’t had the chance to check back posts. Just got home. Snow to ice to rain Id imagine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 18z fv3 is a mess of everything! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 18z GFS definitely puts more energy into the piece that transfers to the coast. Subtle differences from 12z, but ends up a bit better for us in the only way we care about. I really think that just going off history at this stage will be more accurate than op runs every 6 hours. Get a primary north of our latitude to the west and it's going to mix regardless of a transfer. Imo- all a transfer does is give us more rain than help snowfall/ice. Doesn't matter what I want but I would prefer no transfer at all unless the primary doesn't make it north of our latitude. From what I'm seeing though it sure looks like the primary is making it north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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