BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Could be wrong but I’m kinda liking the GfS right now...better thump? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Just now, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Could be wrong but I’m kinda liking the GfS right now...better thump? You know the world is upside down when this one is optimistic and posting positive vibes 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Like the trends. GFS is gonna skunk us after a front end thump..but the progression seems to get better with every run re: CAD 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Just now, stormtracker said: Like the trends. GFS is gonna skunk us after a front end thump..but the progression seems to get better with every run re: CAD It’s a little faster which is nice. Sorry you hate me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Could be wrong but I’m kinda liking the GfS right now...better thump? 1042 mb vs 1040 mb hp at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Just now, BaltimoreWxGuy said: It’s a little faster which is nice. Sorry you hate me lol I don't hate you. I hate the Eeyore phase. I think you infected Yoda this season. He never used to be this bad. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Just now, stormtracker said: Like the trends. GFS is gonna skunk us after a front end thump..but the progression seems to get better with every run re: CAD We just need the general idea to not deteriorate and it's a pretty safe way to get some snow. Still 4 days out. Gfs is warmer and quicker to retreat the mids but precip was faster. Have the exact gfs progression but deeper cad and it could be a very nice event before the downpour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Well at least the plains blizzard is back. Yay. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Back to a big Plains blizzard this run Eta: @stormtracker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: We just need the general idea to not deteriorate and it's a pretty safe way to get some snow. Still 4 days out. Gfs is warmer and quicker to retreat the mids but precip was faster. Have the exact gfs progression but deeper cad and it could be a very nice event before the downpour. Yeah, that's pretty much the upside for me. Few hours of frozen before the inevitable rain. People need to accept that with this set up. I'm focused on the thump baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: I don't hate you. I hate the Eeyore phase. I think you infected Yoda this season. He never used to be this bad. True but granted it’s been bad for MY back yard so sorry. I’m not even to 10” yet...about 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Just at tad different than the 12z Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Just now, stormtracker said: Yeah, that's pretty much the upside for me. Few hours of frozen before the inevitable rain. People need to accept that with this set up. I'm focused on the thump baby I accepted it 3 days ago. Ridging is pushing up in front. H5 is a long way away from an underneath solution. Need the big jumps to stop. Euro went big in the plains last night and killed that idea today. Of course the gfs just nuked the plains. We need that piece to stop moving 100s of miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Well the Canadian gives us snow more so with wave 1 and 2-4”...Then all rain with Tuesday. Mess. Think we can discount it for most part, GFS has been too consistent with keying on Monday night/Tues and not Sun night/Mon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 FV3 is hideous for DC. 850 line north of the city throughout. Rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 12 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, that's pretty much the upside for me. Few hours of frozen before the inevitable rain. People need to accept that with this set up. I'm focused on the thump baby You are always focused on the big thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 20 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Could be wrong but I’m kinda liking the GfS right now...better thump? Don’t see it. Slightly more snow maybe but then warmer and a lot more rain so odds are worse ground truth when it’s over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 I don’t buy the Sunday/Monday thing and the real storm is all rain on the gem. Don’t look at the fv3. Really don’t look. Hopefully this is just a hiccup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Don’t see it. Slightly more snow maybe but then warmer and a lot more rain so odds are worse ground truth when it’s over. Ok but why do we care so much about when it’s over? If I get 4” of snow before it goes to rain an washes away I’m fine with that as opposed to 2” and ice and dumb stuff dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Ok but why do we care so much about when it’s over? If I get 4” of snow before it goes to rain an washes away I’m fine with that as opposed to 2” and ice and dumb stuff dry slot. What good is snow if before I get to go out and play in it with my kids or go sledding or make a fort or snowman it turns to a pouring rainstorm? I liked the miller b idea of a 3-6” thump to dryslot I thought we might be trending towards. The primary way west with a driving rainstorm idea not so much. But to each their own. I dont want to much up the thread. Sorry. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Euro=next Except next = next too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 @Ralph Wiggum and the euro is why I am looking for blocking in the long range. It might not go down that way. I’m not claiming this is the solution. There is a good high around so a fluke could happen. But the euro just spit out a total fail scenario with two cutter rainstorms next week. And that is very much possible in a -epo/-pna pattern without blocking. They favor a track nw of us. If the epo was centered in western Canada or there was a tpv in Quebec I would be much more excited but the pure h5 pattern shown is not a good snow look for us. Luckily the long range looked great on the gefs. Hopefully the eps concurs shortly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Euro = Next Next Next Ji would say this euro run sucked. It really did. I suppose it does end with a mediocre pattern day 10 but 3 cutters next week. 99% rain. Boundary stays to our northwest the whole time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Euro = Next Next Next Ji would say this euro run sucked. It really did. I suppose it does end with a good pattern day 10 but 3 cutters next week. 99% rain. Boundary stays to our northwest the whole time. Yeah might be time to toss this thing...perhaps the thump could do something for your totals, but for the other half of the subforum? Sloppy few inches that ya may not be able to see...lol I do hope that PD weekend (or even a bit after) can yield some potential (or at least a moderate storm to get the ball rolling)...because the clock starts ticking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 6z GFS is a nice 2-4/3-6 event region wide before the rain. It starts 6z Monday stays snow for the cities through 6z on Tuesday. Nice little event before the deluge. Not a lot of wiggle room though. Still lots of time for it to all go to crap or improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Playing lazy so I am just going to throw up the overnight EPS snowfall map. More of a gradient style snowfall pattern then the 12z. Saw totals move down for south of DC and totals go up for Baltimore and north where those sitting around the PA line picked up an inch and a half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah might be time to toss this thing...perhaps the thump could do something for your totals, but for the other half of the subforum? Sloppy few inches that ya may not be able to see...lol I do hope that PD weekend (or even a bit after) can yield some potential (or at least a moderate storm to get the ball rolling)...because the clock starts ticking! A sloppy few inches that you may not be able to see? I’m sorry but is it invisible? Also, a sloppy few inches can do something for our totals in the corridor. Many of us would be fine with a sloppy couple of inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Icon is interesting. Never gets above freezing for many. That HP on both the icon and gfs isn’t getting beat around. The difference is that the primary on the GFS torches and overcomes the HP. I think areas north and west have a chance to stay frozen for the duration with this one. Icon has a weaker primary than the GFS. At hr 102 gfs is 992 while icon is 1002. Gfs warms the mids right down to surface while the icon keeps the surface below freezing. Gotta root for the primary to come in weaker and let the HP do it’s job at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 4 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Euro = Next Next Next Ji would say this euro run sucked. It really did. I suppose it does end with a mediocre pattern day 10 but 3 cutters next week. 99% rain. Boundary stays to our northwest the whole time. Well nothing has really changed then as this period was totally expected to be a gradient pattern and completely dependent on which side of the boundary we ended up on. May or may not work out....I'm not ready to give up yet on Feb. Positive takeaways are 1) the models seem to have sniffed out the overall setup 10 days prior in signaling this boundary scenario was going to occur with all of the key features of the pattern fairly well advertised. Or course this is if it still goes down like this which at this range looks like it will. So that's a win for LR modeling. 2) with that said the LR models are sticking with and even increasing the blocking looks up top. If my first point holds any value then we *may* be past the point of LR failures that we saw last month. 3) There is still the chance the euro has the gradient idea but is giving into some bias and not flattening things out enough East of the divide. Boundary will likely be closer imo but again even if not we knew with the SE Ridge feature and little blocking this was certainly a possibility. When blocking pops up later next week we should start to see significant changes. SE Ridge will prove to be our savior when all is said and done...its not going away completely but should remain enough of a player to keep systems from tracking to GA with a strong block up top. Aside from my tongue in cheek teasing yesterday, most of us have had our eyes farther down the line anyway. I see what is coming thus why I'm trying to stay away from playing with fire in the extended. Maybe its reverse psychology or even a subconscious thing but there is nothing saying the blocky pattern up top wont verify. I also like that recent years' decadal(?) history says backloaded blocking patterns are a real thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Gfs has hecs next weekend lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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