stormtracker Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 1 hour ago, winterymix said: The FV3 shows snow for a hand full of hours and then a mix to rain. Then, tail end snow. The initial dump occurs at night, so no insolation worries. You would take a good model and find the tiniest negative things about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 4 minutes ago, nj2va said: I hear you but is it worth comparing H5 to FV3...that’s such an extreme scenario that is unlikely to happen anyways. That's what most have set their expectations on over last few pages so why not? Either way even FV3 withheld the icon is a complete mess after wave 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I'm more interested late Sunday- early Tuesday. I think we could have a good event and then be washed away by the cutter on Wednesday. That is the expectation I've had in the philly forum for a few days. Part 2 had hope but we seem to be losing it so yeah we should focus on part 1 first and foremost regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: You would take a good model and find the tiniest negative things about it. I thought it was yoder at first before I saw his name Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 GFS looks like thump to rain trying to take slp to Wisconsin. CAD is slightly better tho fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 15 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: That's what most have set their expectations on over last few pages so why not? Either way even FV3 withheld the icon is a complete mess after wave 1. Most? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Geez huge Plains blizzard on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GFS looks like thump to rain trying to take slp to Wisconsin. CAD is slightly better tho fwiw. If you call 1” a thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 I’d be fine with the GFS...a few inches of snow before the flip. CAD will probably hold longer than that. Anything but plain rain would be a win (at least for me). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Great run for Western Iowa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Gfs made a decent step in right direction 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 closed h5 lows through chicago aren't a good sign here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ji said: Gfs made a decent step in right direction How so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 How so?Longer period of wintry weather. Not sure what you are expecting 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: Gfs made a decent step in right direction Here's a good visual with the improvement between 18z and 00z. I know snow maps aren't perfect and always accurate but you can see the difference. We need to root for getting moisture in here as quick as possible and as much as possible. IMHO a cutter is most likely locked in but we can maximize the front end Thump. Antecedent conditions are ok leading in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 6 minutes ago, Ji said: Gfs made a decent step in right direction For who? Green Bay? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Here's a good visual with the improvement between 18z and 00z. I know snow maps aren't perfect and always accurate but you can see the difference. We need to root for getting moisture in here as quick as possible and as much as possible. IMHO a cutter is most likely locked in but we can maximize the front end Thump. Antecedent conditions are ok leading in.That's exactly it. We have a winter window that we need to take advantage off between Monday and Tuesday afternoon. Anyone remember a snow to big rainstorm back in March? Maybe 1994? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 CMC took a large jump to the coastal transfer scenario and much weaker primary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 At least we had that one FV3 run. More in line with the others now at 0z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ji said: 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: How so? Longer period of wintry weather. Not sure what you are expecting Little faster onset and deeper cad and we get warning level before the rain does the shoveling for us. It not a big step to morph this into a textbook cad setup 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: CMC took a large jump to the coastal transfer scenario and much weaker primary This is where our region and yours roots for different thing. You like the cmc better because it's more miller b. I like the gfs version because it's a much easier way to get a warning level event. We've had plenty here. Screw rooting for a transfer when the primary dies overhead and the secondary does the old skipdeedoodah. We've had plenty of those too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Little faster onset and deeper cad and we get warning level before the rain does the shoveling for us. It not a big step to morph this into a textbook cad setup That's a great call out. I've resigned myself to the fact that whatever falls will get washed away on Wednesday. But we could have a warning level snow event prior to that happening. . The high to the north wants to hang in there And it's a 1040 high. Not too shabby. And look at the bright side, we won't have to kill out backs shoveling lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 6 minutes ago, Ji said: 10 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Here's a good visual with the improvement between 18z and 00z. I know snow maps aren't perfect and always accurate but you can see the difference. We need to root for getting moisture in here as quick as possible and as much as possible. IMHO a cutter is most likely locked in but we can maximize the front end Thump. Antecedent conditions are ok leading in. That's exactly it. We have a winter window that we need to take advantage off between Monday and Tuesday afternoon. Anyone remember a snow to big rainstorm back in March? Maybe 1994? Yes. Early March 1994. Around the 3rd or 4th. Areas not to far to the north and west got crushed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 FV3 came to it's senses. Looks like a better version of what the GFS showed at 0z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 1 minute ago, poolz1 said: FV3 came to it's senses. Looks like a better version of what the GFS showed at 0z. Imagine that lol. I think we could really maximize the front end thump before it's all washed away on Wednesday. CAD looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Here's temps Tuesday morning as snow is breaking out. Decent funnel of cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 6 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Imagine that lol. I think we could really maximize the front end thump before it's all washed away on Wednesday. CAD looks pretty good. I think we can too....we know our climo out here with this type of setup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, poolz1 said: I think we can too....we know our climo out here with this type of setup. I usually end up right in the middle with DC and northern tier. I hope you get 2' so I can get 1'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 35 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Little faster onset and deeper cad and we get warning level before the rain does the shoveling for us. It not a big step to morph this into a textbook cad setup Get this high 150-200 miles to west and we are golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 1 hour ago, Chris78 said: That's a great call out. I've resigned myself to the fact that whatever falls will get washed away on Wednesday. But we could have a warning level snow event prior to that happening. . The high to the north wants to hang in there And it's a 1040 high. Not too shabby. And look at the bright side, we won't have to kill out backs shoveling lol. You know you can hardly wait to dig that snow. Pile it up right after it falls, on the north side of your house. The rain might not be able to wash all of it away. Better yet, set up a tarp over the snow piles. Fight for your snow! DO NOT GO GENTLY INTO THE NIGHT lol. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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