Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Hope something shows up in the medium range that can save this thing enough to NOT be as much of a mix...time to root for that 50/50! (Now, how long before we have to take such a development off the table?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 52 minutes ago, MountainGeek said: The shut up line -- does that run through Chuck's house? It's a literal line and it bisects his house. As in if he goes from the couch to the fridge to get a beer, he has to hop over that son of a bitch. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Safe to say the 18z gfs is nothing like the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: Safe to say the 18z gfs is nothing like the Euro Yeah I think the GFS forgot that its February and not late March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 5 minutes ago, LP08 said: Safe to say the 18z gfs is nothing like the Euro it almost looks like a potential wave 1/wave 2 situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 49 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Hope something shows up in the medium range that can save this thing enough to NOT be as much of a mix...time to root for that 50/50! (Now, how long before we have to take such a development off the table?) Hopefully it can drop a spear on the ridge and pop it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Last few runs of the GEFS look to be setting up for a nice start to March. Very favorable h5 look. 12z EPS is at least showing signs of moving that way too. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 I have a feeling about this one 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I have a feeling about this one Oh heck no...I do NOT believe it. You'd think it would be a cutter by the time we get to that date, smh I'm almost convinced next week is our last chance for warning level snow (and even that hasn't trended positively today) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Oh heck no...I do NOT believe it. You'd think it would be a cutter by the time we get to that date, smh I'm almost convinced next week is our last chance for warning level snow (and even that hasn't trended positively today) What makes you say that? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Oh heck no...I do NOT believe it. You'd think it would be a cutter by the time we get to that date, smh I'm almost convinced next week is our last chance for warning level snow (and even that hasn't trended positively today) Much of Maryland has been under a winter storm warning in 5 out of the last 6 march's so you shouldn't be convinced of anything yet. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, Fozz said: What makes you say that? I guess I have a bit of consistency bias...that nothing has worked out all winter--and that a strong finish in March is just hard to believe. Also, we don't get a lot of warning level snow here in the last week of Feb. There are some scattered occurrences, but they are rare! And we know the story on March snow...sometimes, but harder to come by. I could be very wrong about this, of course...I just don't like the idea of having to rely on March to save winter in Central MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 4 minutes ago, HighStakes said: Much of Maryland has been under a winter storm warning in 5 out of the last 6 march's so you shouldn't be convinced of anything yet. For the cities it's only been a couple of those times (and last year doesn't count, lol 3 inches ain't a warning). Now higher elevations? Sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 We get more and larger snow events in March than we do in December. Especially recently. Punting march + Dec climo = 8 weeks of winter. Good luck working inside of that little box. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 In 2017, I entered March with a seasonal snowfall total of 3.3" and finished at 13.3". Last year, by the first of March I was at 7.3" and finished the year with 22.7". 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Winter is coming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 FWIW, Judah Cohen tweeted today that FV3 becomes the U.S Operational model on March 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: Winter is coming. Hour 384 is my favorite. If it was always hour 384, we would live in a snow globe. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 18 minutes ago, osfan24 said: FWIW, Judah Cohen tweeted today that FV3 becomes the U.S Operational model on March 1. Plenty of digital snow tracking Edit... into July 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 46 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Also, we don't get a lot of warning level snow here in the last week of Feb. There are some scattered occurrences, but they are rare! This is true of any week in any winter, really. That certain time periods have more snow events compared to others is somewhat due to chance, somewhat also due to actual climatological factors I suppose. But that doesn't preclude any time between December and March. I remember in 2016, there was some discussion that we've had really good snows in early and late January, but none really around the 3rd week (maybe due to the fact that's the climatologically coldest time of year, and tends to be drier on average). Then we got the blizzard with 20"+ on the Jan. 22-23. Irony at its finest! I've been here since summer of 2001. Never saw a decent March snow at all until 2009. Then we got on a relative March heater with an event in late March 2013, three solid events in 2014, another in early March 2015, and yet another in both 2017 and 2018 (those two took a bit of the edge off a couple of crap winters, too). Heck, I saw good snow on my birthday (on the 25th) in back-to-back years in 2013 and 2014. In fact, I'd almost argue that I've seen more snow events in March than December since I've lived here...though of course one of those December ones was a HECS in 2009! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 25 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Hour 384 is my favorite. If it was always hour 384, we would live in a snow globe. Somehow reminds me of a sign on the door of a bar when I was in college...it said, "at 2AM, everyone looks good!" Same idea, perhaps!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Just now, Always in Zugzwang said: Somehow reminds me of a sign on the door of a bar when I was in college...it said, "at 2AM, everyone looks good!" Same idea, perhaps!! She’s a 2 at 10 and a 10 at 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Hey @Maestrobjwa remember my scenario. Go loop the fv3!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Hey @Maestrobjwa remember my scenario. Go loop the fv3!!! Lol. Nice shut out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2019 Author Share Posted February 14, 2019 Icon looks amazing for next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Icon looks amazing for next week Lol massive thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ji said: Icon looks amazing for next week Woah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 GFS looks like garbage for next week. Another rainer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Still a lot of time but GFS is going backwards. Looks like a big ol rainstorm incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Ugh, Icon talk. Anyway, the GFS is a rainstorm now, lol. As the Models Turn. Way too early to be super worried about any of this. Just keep the storm on the map and give me one good model that holds the cold or keeps it nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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