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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT


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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yep good call, still think NAM is overamped though. Doesn't make a difference for us. Harveys Thursday snow map was too early AWT

Probably right and as you said, there has been a steady but slow northward trend in warmth at all levels on this one for about 2 days now.  Suck that they are sort of forced to throw out maps 4 days out.

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14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is one of the weirdest storms I've ever tracked. I've never seen models insist on plowing into an Arctic high like this. Ever. If someone can find me an analog, I'm all ears but I've searched. Nada. Ok expecting a huge bust on low level temps by the models. But I'm def gonna be wrong on the colder tick aloft I was expecting. 

But this Arctic "high" is more like a band of cold air than an actual high pressure center. There's almost no north-south orientation to it, so any southerly flow has tons of room to push north.

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14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The one thing I’m noticing is the lack of a cold push. The classic ones have the big cold push the day prior on strong NW winds and set the stage. We just have the cold oozing in despite HP to the north....there is no good push south. On top of that. This low is approaching at a high latitude. So the flow turns east quick and really ends the cold advection off the deck. What we do have is cold coming in from the NE in the interior. That may help them, but it’s curtains for many down here. 

Purely anecdotal, but the air down here certainly does not feel supportive of an ice event. Almost felt like late March. Kind of expected today to be chilly and gray with really low DPs.

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18 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Wear black to the gtg...raise a glass

LOL.

I'm thinking just a ton of pings here, not ZR.

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Well it could def track over like PYM. But it's not going over, say, BOS I don't think. Def not anything west. I'll believe that when I actually see it. 

 https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/01af156f-fc74-49a3-9bae-4b9922d26d77

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