CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Am I wrong to think there is potential? Yes. You’ll be lucky to see 2” tonight. Maybe brief NNw oes tomorrow that gives a half inch later day or evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Yeah, mesos certainly backed down, but it still could be a hell of a sleet storm with some rain at times here. I suppose better than snow to plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 31 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Scoots pointed out to me that we are advercting in cold and lower dews during storm.. that’s exactjy what happened in 08 ORH storm . That’s why you take the under on 2m temps . Models had that one milder at 2m too That's exactly what will happen in this storm. The very low Arctic dews are going to be advecting south during the event. This is where I think models are the worst. They put too much emphasis on latent heat in that scenario and not enough on advection of dews. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 13 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Interesting to see how cold the HREF is at 2m lol How good has that performed in your experience? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Upton not impressed with any icing. Calling .1 to .25 for their interior CT zones. They don’t even mention the possibility of a major icing zone. Usually a good bet to fade them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That's exactly what will happen in this storm. The very low Arctic dews are going to be advecting south during the event. This is where I think models are the worst. They put too much emphasis on latent heat in that scenario and not enough on advection of dews. That’s very good news for us . Do you see Central Park getting 4 inches tops? Reminds me of November 15th event here in nyc. It snowed for 4-5 hours for 6 inches and it changed to rain. The models don’t really account the evaporative and dynamic cooling so we’ll have to watch that at the onset. 4 inches for Central Park and 10 inches for Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 11 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I am liking the higher amounts for the Cape and Islands I forecasted yesterday, the models ticked warmer and I am going with 3-6" the 6" amounts closer to the canal and the 3" amounts near CHH. Are there any issues w the water in Harwich , specifically on your street Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Are there any issues w the water in Harwich Only on easterly to southeasterly winds, the warmer lower 40F water temps are dwindling quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: That's exactly what will happen in this storm. The very low Arctic dews are going to be advecting south during the event. This is where I think models are the worst. They put too much emphasis on latent heat in that scenario and not enough on advection of dews. So would you say the 32 isotherm never makes it north of say Hull- MMU- GON? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 One thing to point out is that CF enhancement showing up from near Ray to PSM on guidance. That may boost totals a few inches easily there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: One thing to point out is that CF enhancement showing up from near Ray to PSM on guidance. That may boost totals a few inches easily there. Enhanced like madonnas pants Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Jesus nam is warmer again. This is amazing lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Are we still expecting a fash freeze later Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 There it goes trying to phase the N stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Should be nice hearing the peepers tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, CarverWX said: Are we still expecting a fash freeze later Sunday? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 What's the status on the 10" for MVY?Maybe James made a road trip to the island to report.Sent from my SM-T713 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 NNW/ NW of Albany now has clearly the highest shot (70%!) of 18 plus on WPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yes The low level centers are heading westward every run now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, HimoorWx said: Maybe James made a road trip to the island to report. Sent from my SM-T713 using Tapatalk It is not happening ok, I miss spoke when I first said that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: The low level centers are heading westward every run now. Enjoy spring like weather tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 There’s a lot of convection in the southeast. That ridging is getting a late latent heating boost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Jesus nam is warmer again. This is amazing lol. 0c 850 iso tickling the NH border by 09z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Ryan to make more cut backs today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: There’s a lot of convection in the southeast. That ridging is getting a late latent heating boost. Yep. Classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Enjoy spring like weather tomorrow I will be watching the football games tomorrow unclear of what the weather is like outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, CarverWX said: Are we still expecting a fash freeze later Sunday? Take my thoughts down by 1/2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Should be nice hearing the peepers tomorrow. Mid 50’s at 15z Se mass /PVD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 I had 770 layer to 940 layer plus 3 at ASH on 6z models (12z to 15z) was wondering how warm I need for ice now on 12z....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 I want to vomit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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