STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Let’s bring this to day 3 please no real faith in models in this set up 5-5.5 days out but def good to see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: The Op Euro and EPS has shown a pretty broad scale trof dropping into the eastern half of the country now for 5 consecutive runs day 8-10. It really hasn’t had the look of a transient feature at all which is why the 11-15 day EPS has been fishy to me the last 2 days or so. Yeah we mentioned that a couple days ago ... sort of the under radar aspect means, the EPS was wrong yesterday ...if it is right today. And if the EPS is right today ...that means the GEFs wins this debate. sort of ... maybe not exactly all fields but those that tend to eschew the GEFs really shouldn't - straw man argument Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Let’s bring this to day 3 please no real faith in models in this set up 5-5.5 days out but def good to see! Agreed. This one is also a precarious setup. It has some good things going for it but it wouldn't take much to make it a non-event. At least it looked a bit better today...certainly better than looking worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: While data ingest is not a problem during the shutdown, what could be an issue is fixing problems that arise. No development is allowed (hence why the FV3 roll out is pushed back now). A critical failure of the GFS I'm sure could be worked on, but a prominent bias couldn't be worked on. Good to know... Been asking this question but didn't seem anyone knew ... Is that true over sees products reliant upon western hemisphere ? Yeah, that's an interesting point about spin back into operation... heh, if that ever happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 21 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Let’s bring this to day 3 please no real faith in models in this set up 5-5.5 days out but def good to see! It’s Monday night . 4 days out 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s Monday night . 4 days out Agreed, if this continues to track /show more positive signs and other models start agreement tomorrow night I'm in......hope its go time though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Just now, 512high said: Agreed, if this continues to track /show more positive signs and other models start agreement tomorrow night I'm in......hope its go time though If 00z holds course or trends colder with frigid HP it’s about go time 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Good to know... Been asking this question but didn't seem anyone knew ... Is that true over sees products reliant upon western hemisphere ? Yeah, that's an interesting point about spin back into operation... heh, if that ever happens. I'm not aware of any data that would not be available to the international community during the shutdown (e.g. balloons, satellite, etc). While the FV3 has been running in parallel to the GFS for many months, the true 30 day parallel test was supposed to start around now. That can't go on now, so more or less for each day we are shut down in January (hopefully that's it) the operational data will be pushed that many days back into February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2019 Author Share Posted January 3, 2019 18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s Monday night . 4 days out I have some faith in this one...about time to start easing up to the zenith. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I have some faith in this one...about time to start easing up to the zenith. First steps out of the nadir can be tough for some... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Borrowed from another forum: Ben Noll ✔@BenNollWeather What the JMA weeklies do with tropical forcing over the next 4 weeks isn't ideal for long-lasting wintry patterns in the eastern U.S. [doesn't mean it can't snow] After a brief trip into phase 8, it fades and then reemerges into phases 5-6 later in the month. Similar to ECMWF. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2019 Author Share Posted January 3, 2019 6 minutes ago, weathafella said: First steps out of the nadir can be tough for some... I def. see how it is tenuous and can go awry....still time for that. Just my hedge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Right, the reliable JMA weeklies. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2019 Author Share Posted January 3, 2019 9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Borrowed from another forum: Ben Noll ✔@BenNollWeather What the JMA weeklies do with tropical forcing over the next 4 weeks isn't ideal for long-lasting wintry patterns in the eastern U.S. [doesn't mean it can't snow] After a brief trip into phase 8, it fades and then reemerges into phases 5-6 later in the month. Similar to ECMWF. I'd like to run a composite for the last week of January and first week of February for all weak el nino events, and see how many ugly stretches there were. My guess is not many....not saying to disregard that, but I think both need to be considered. Harkens back to what John said regarding deconstructive and constructive interference not being absolute terms....modoki forcing should grow more pervasive by the day from here on out and will be more difficult to negate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Right, the reliable JMA weeklies. Hopefully they are "weak" lies 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2019 Author Share Posted January 3, 2019 The stratospheric polar vortex will not rebound after sudden stratospheric warming and consequent split of the vortex. However, this event will take time to impact troposphere in contrast to last year, where more immediate impacts were felt... #ams2019 topic 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 I think tomorrow (12z) becomes thread time for our next threat if things hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 18z gfs was pretty similar to 12z. Slightly warmer...at this time range, its negligible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Weeklies gone wild week 3. +PNA/-EPO and -NAO. Wonder if that is too quick? Either way, that's refreshing to see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Ben posts a just a spray of medium range and seasonal guidance constantly but doesnt comment much on skill or what he thinks will actually happen. But yeah, the jma look wasnt great. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Weeklies gone wild week 3. +PNA/-EPO and -NAO. Wonder if that is too quick? Either way, that's refreshing to see. Continuing eps changes. Hopefully has the right idea. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: Continuing eps changes. Hopefully has the right idea. Boy do we pray. That’s a sick look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Boy do we pray. That’s a sick look. Lol...you set the morning crew down a hole. Now the night shift starts ordering shots... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Weeklies gone wild week 3. +PNA/-EPO and -NAO. Wonder if that is too quick? Either way, that's refreshing to see. Thanks! Needed some uplifting news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 18z GFS is tasty for Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Polar Vortex is about to split into 3 pieces https://www.axios.com/polar-vortex-is-about-to-split-up-5c2e7460-67fb-49da-b73a-079ffbe205b9.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Yeah that is definitely weeklies gone wild. Total flip. That's a big snow pattern with that NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 11 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Polar Vortex is about to split into 3 pieces https://www.axios.com/polar-vortex-is-about-to-split-up-5c2e7460-67fb-49da-b73a-079ffbe205b9.html All those with the standard cold February forecast are jumping all over it. Did anyone anywhere forecast a warm February ? "However, a major stratospheric warming event has begun," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson." AccuWeather's winter forecast, which was released during the late summer of 2018, did not call for a significant and long-lasting downturn in temperatures until late January and more so during February for the eastern U.S. At this point, people from the Great Lakes to the Northeast should still expect late January to February to feel like the middle of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Weeklies gone wild week 3. +PNA/-EPO and -NAO. Wonder if that is too quick? Either way, that's refreshing to see. When does week 3 begin? Is that the 20th or 27th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Scooter doesn’t realize the pull he has here. Jerry’s right. If Scooter is down. The vast majority of the board also gets down with him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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