Hoth Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 24 minutes ago, 512high said: ty, happy new year Same to you, my good sir. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We still have strong warmth progged even in the 11-15 day at 50mb on the EPS. So thermal wind arguments alone say easterlies. 10mb starting to cool, but par for the course I think. Hopefully some of those products that show downwelling start to occur later this month. I’m gathering that January looks pretty ugly for the foreseeable future . Like puke Just now, 512high said: Scott, with that said, can we sneak events in under those conditions ? or will they result in the same old we have been getting here in southern parts etc? Ur in ASH, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2019 Author Share Posted January 1, 2019 36 minutes ago, 512high said: same time frame as others have spoken about or later? Yes. Starting end of week 1 and completing end of week 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We still have strong warmth progged even in the 11-15 day at 50mb on the EPS. So thermal wind arguments alone say easterlies. 10mb starting to cool, but par for the course I think. Hopefully some of those products that show downwelling start to occur later this month. GEFS show a textbook evolution to a better pattern. May be rushed but IMHO its just a matter of time. We have heard all the arguments about winter being 2 weeks away. You had an exceptional feel for the pattern flip in Dec. Great call man. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 8 minutes ago, 512high said: Scott, with that said, can we sneak events in under those conditions ? or will they result in the same old we have been getting here in southern parts etc? You can always sneak events in. It’s just a matter of how the pattern cooperates. I think Will mentioned earlier how Jan 2005 had a crappy look and we kept sneaking in 3-6” events before the big blizzard. If the ridging our west would just beef up a tad, that’s all it would take. We are entering a period where climo gets into our best favorable time and it doesn’t take much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: GEFS show a textbook evolution to a better pattern. May be rushed but IMHO its just a matter of time. We have heard all the arguments about winter being 2 weeks away. You had an exceptional feel for the pattern flip in Dec. Great call man. Thanks but 1/7 may be too soon. Probably have to wait longer. I’m hoping it does flip...I think Ray’s timeline looks decent. I think most other mets, (Tip, Will etc) had a good feel for December too. Sorry if I got a little cranky with some, but sometimes we don’t like to hear it. I just call it as I see it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2019 Author Share Posted January 1, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: GEFS show a textbook evolution to a better pattern. May be rushed but IMHO its just a matter of time. We have heard all the arguments about winter being 2 weeks away. You had an exceptional feel for the pattern flip in Dec. Great call man. I can wait until everyone stops wondering whether or not the pattern flips, and begins to wonder whether its 1' or 2'. 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Thanks but 1/7 may be too soon. Probably have to wait longer. I’m hoping it does flip...I think Ray’s timeline looks decent. I think most other mets, (Tip, Will etc) had a good feel for December too. Sorry if I got a little cranky with some, but sometimes we don’t like to hear it. I just call it as I see it. Yea thats the 16th shown seems better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I can wait until everyone stops wondering whether or not the pattern flips, and begins to wonder whether its 1' or 2'. Well, you start at 2’ and adjust from there...obviously. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 If it weren't for all the rain, then the winter thus far would be very pleasant. The lack of bone chilling cold has been lovely. A stunning 60F right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 28 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: GEFS show a textbook evolution to a better pattern. May be rushed but IMHO its just a matter of time. We have heard all the arguments about winter being 2 weeks away. You had an exceptional feel for the pattern flip in Dec. Great call man. If it's rushed by the 16th, then when? 20th, 30th? February? I'll root for a ratter if I go into the last week of January with less then 10" of snow and <4" for MET winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 16 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: If it's rushed by the 16th, then when? 20th, 30th? February? I'll root for a ratter if I go into the last week of January with less then 10" of snow and <4" for MET winter. Lol I could cut and paste this same post of yours from so many years. Good luck with your ratter again. Posts like this were predicted better than the weather. Happy New year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: If it's rushed by the 16th, then when? 20th, 30th? February? I'll root for a ratter if I go into the last week of January with less then 10" of snow and <4" for MET winter. 3 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Pretty nice signal there on the GFS around the 8th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Pretty nice signal there on the GFS around the 8th. Need to keep the rainers coming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Need to keep the rainers coming I am guessing this past year in New England there were some yearly rainfall totals broken or near broken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: LolI could cut and paste this same post of yours from so many years. Good luck with your ratter again. Posts like this were predicted better than the weather. Happy New year OK. And good luck with your above normal snowfall. It's been a boring season for Winter weather, I'm enjoying the nice weather and want it to continue at this point. It's been 47 days since my last accumulating snow and if we go into the end of January continuing that, I'd be 2 months between snowstorms. I'd be fine with it not snowing again at that point. Boring snow season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 There it is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2019 Author Share Posted January 1, 2019 29 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: If it's rushed by the 16th, then when? 20th, 30th? February? I'll root for a ratter if I go into the last week of January with less then 10" of snow and <4" for MET winter. Same spot its been since November. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 In the past 17 pages I was most impressed with CoastalWx's 90's music trivia skills and even more smitten when he articulated them into the thread's most relevant content I am practically blushing His wife is one lucky lady 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 7 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: OK. And good luck with your above normal snowfall. It's been a boring season for Winter weather, I'm enjoying the nice weather and want it to continue at this point. It's been 47 days since my last accumulating snow and if we go into the end of January continuing that, I'd be 2 months between snowstorms. I'd be fine with it not snowing again at that point. Boring snow season. It has been boring but it's still very early. Majority of winter forecasts had a pattern change by mid January. We shall see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 56 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I can wait until everyone stops wondering whether or not the pattern flips, and begins to wonder whether its 1' or 2'. Haha right. The forum won't be fun until that point. But then there better be multiple big bombs for this crowd as no one is going to feel vindicated waiting till Feb 1st for a 15" event if there aren't more behind it. If it turns into a one-event wonder this place will go downhill more than it is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 ... in the meantime, let's give the warm/fair weather enthusiasts their props - Today is one insane d-sloper dandy. Absolutely stunning out there ... This is a typical post the lead side chill scoured out by cyclone mechanics. The backside CAA is lagged ...which is then augmented further by kadabatic warming flow. When it clears like this with full sun ...even in the solar nadir time of years this can overperform and really polish gem afternoons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: ... in the meantime, let's give the warm/fair weather enthusiasts their props - Today is one insane d-sloper dandy. Absolutely stunning out there ... This is a typical occurrence post a strong thermal ridge and the lead side chill is scoured out by cyclone mechanics. The backside CAA is lagged ...which is then augmented further by kadabatic warming flow. When it clears like this with full sun ...even in the solar nadir time of years this can overperform and really polish gem afternoons. Just back from a 3 mike walk. It is beautiful outside though the wind is roaring suggesting that tonight may be slap in the face cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: ... in the meantime, let's give the warm/fair weather enthusiasts their props - Today is one insane d-sloper dandy. Absolutely stunning out there ... This is a typical occurrence post a strong thermal ridge and the lead side chill is scoured out by cyclone mechanics. The backside CAA is lagged ...which is then augmented further by kadabatic warming flow. When it clears like this with full sun ...even in the solar nadir time of years this can overperform and really polish gem afternoons. Sounds nice. 32F and dropping up here with fierce cold winds as the yard solidifies into yet another white mass that cannot be described as snow. I think I could ice skate across the pack this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 You can see the big changes in the LR, just have to cut down all the noise with a machete to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Nice high pressure location for that incoming precip on January 8 2 bad it’s 190 hrs out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 8 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It has been boring but it's still very early. Majority of winter forecasts had a pattern change by mid January. We shall see And many called for a pattern change by mid-late December. 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Same spot its been since November. In your Winter Outlook, sure. Waiting till mid-late January for "Winter" to start is boring. By mid-late February, I'm on to Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 10 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Sounds nice. 32F and dropping up here with fierce cold winds as the yard solidifies into yet another white mass that cannot be described as snow. I think I could ice skate across the pack this evening. oh the cold is comin' ... in so much as it will... It's really a 50s to 30s version because of the baser canvased above normal pattern ... as opposed to perhaps where this would more typically be 40 to 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 I think we get a widespread New England snowstorm sometime during the week of January 7 and then the pattern just gets progressively snowier and colder for the following six weeks. That would be a pretty good winter particularly with some nino march snow and the early cold and snow for some 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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