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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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As always, it would be nice to see a trend of the southern wave a little stronger/slower to allow the HP to build in.  Still in a range where that's not a far cry from happening.

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Last time we saw appreciable November snow was 13-14, which is one of the best winters I can remember since 2000.

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13 hours ago, Wow said:

As always, it would be nice to see a trend of the southern wave a little stronger/slower to allow the HP to build in.  Still in a range where that's not a far cry from happening.

Welp, the 6z run was quite slower and stronger with the wave... but moved the HP out too quickly.

KYAiz85.png

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1 hour ago, Wow said:

Welp, the 6z run was quite slower and stronger with the wave... but moved the HP out too quickly.

KYAiz85.png

Not going to lie, this far out it looks like the players are on the board. That is an optimal SE winter storm low track and there is cold air available. For Mid-November, that is as much as you can ask for at this point. This is definitely something worth tracking atm. Keep in mind, this is more than a week out. I wish this setup was a month from now!

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4 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Not going to lie, this far out it looks like the players are on the board. That is an optimal SE winter storm low track and there is cold air available. For Mid-November, that is as much as you can ask for at this point. This is definitely something worth tracking atm. Keep in mind, this is more than a week out. I wish this setup was a month from now!

Yep. That month can make the difference between a 35º rain and a 33º rain.

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5 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Not going to lie, this far out it looks like the players are on the board. That is an optimal SE winter storm low track and there is cold air available. For Mid-November, that is as much as you can ask for at this point. This is definitely something worth tracking atm. Keep in mind, this is more than a week out. I wish this setup was a month from now!

The 12th to 15th period has been looking interesting since Monday. First, it looked like we might have a shot on the 12th, then the 14th, and now this looks like the 15th. Anything we see now in terms of winter weather, even if it's just a few flakes and no accumulation, would be awesome since we're just entering the middle of November. Hope this is a sign of good things to come this winter. 

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RAH is waiting for more model consistency.

A low pressure center passing across Canada will have a cold front 
that extends all the way south into Texas Monday morning, and as the 
front moves east, another wave of low pressure will develop along 
the front. The new low will form over Washington DC and move east by 
Tuesday morning. The front should be across eastern North Carolina 
at that time, but the precipitation will mostly trail the front. The 
GFS, GEFS, and ECMWF have all struggled with this system over the 
last two days, with each model flipping back and forth with the 
timing of the precipitation as well as the amount. Today it's the 
GFS's turn to go with a mostly dry frontal passage, while the ECMWF 
has been consistent across its last two runs showing precipitation 
mostly during the day. As a result, made very little change to this 
part of the forecast until models can come up with some sort of 
consistency. The frontal passage will occur Monday night, followed 
by precipitation Tuesday, followed by another round of colder air 
Tuesday night and beyond.

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1 minute ago, Solak said:

RAH is waiting for more model consistency.

A low pressure center passing across Canada will have a cold front 
that extends all the way south into Texas Monday morning, and as the 
front moves east, another wave of low pressure will develop along 
the front. The new low will form over Washington DC and move east by 
Tuesday morning. The front should be across eastern North Carolina 
at that time, but the precipitation will mostly trail the front. The 
GFS, GEFS, and ECMWF have all struggled with this system over the 
last two days, with each model flipping back and forth with the 
timing of the precipitation as well as the amount. Today it's the 
GFS's turn to go with a mostly dry frontal passage, while the ECMWF 
has been consistent across its last two runs showing precipitation 
mostly during the day. As a result, made very little change to this 
part of the forecast until models can come up with some sort of 
consistency. The frontal passage will occur Monday night, followed 
by precipitation Tuesday, followed by another round of colder air 
Tuesday night and beyond.

With the way the models have been flipping back and forth like they said, it's probably best to just wait and see until we get closer. Euro showed potential first, then the GFS came along and really increased totals while the Euro decreased potential, and now we're back to the Euro showing more potential than the GFS again. And we'll probably see more back and forth and swamping since we're still a week out.

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GFS and EURO both showing a decent coastal low next weekend. Too warm for wintry precip, but hey, it's something to track :rolleyes:

EURO Sunday, GFS Friday.

ecmwf_mslpaNorm_atl_10.png

2019110806_CON_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WI

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5 minutes ago, Solak said:

GFS and EURO both showing a decent coastal low next weekend. Too warm for wintry precip, but hey, it's something to track :rolleyes:

EURO Sunday, GFS Friday.

 

Ya never know with a CAD, somone could get some frozen on the front end,

gfs_mslpaNorm_eus_28.png

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That really isn't a LP track we want to see outside the mountains.  We want it more offshore.  Running inland isn't going to work.

And that it's November and not mid-January certainly doesn't do us any favors, either.

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6 minutes ago, superjames1992 said:

That really isn't a LP track we want to see outside the mountains.  We want it more offshore.  Running inland isn't going to work.

And that it's November and not mid-January certainly doesn't do us any favors, either.

Yet for November, still an appetizer... Models are still bouncing around the LP, so it should still could shunt further offshore IF the high stays a bit longer

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From the GSP NWS discussion, for late next week. 

“The forecast becomes very complex late in the period with
significant uncertainty and guaranteed changes in the days to come
as another strong shortwave trough marches east across the eastern
CONUS while a closed-low finally ejects from the Desert Southwest
and interacts with the northern-stream energy as it approaches
the Southeast.”
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19 minutes ago, Solak said:

18z GFS - What storm?

It is still there but it ejects east of Florida. Nothing for us. We will see what tomorrow brings.

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15 minutes ago, yotaman said:

It is still there but it ejects east of Florida. Nothing for us. We will see what tomorrow brings.

I'll blame it on the model run ;). It's not doing a good job depicting the rain currently falling along the lower Gulf states from West of New Orleans to JAX. 18z shows all the rain should be in the FL peninsula.

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Something to watch.

But 12z GFS and Nam both show strong frontogenesis with crashing 850 temps Tuesday afternoon/evening. Limited moisture.  

But areas around Danvile, Roxboro, Oxford(Nc, Va Piedmont) may see some slop with temps falling into the upper 30s before clearing out.

Roughly 80 hours out.

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Jonathan Wall:  Latest on Tuesday’s system: 12z Euro with a Trace-1” for favored NC Piedmont areas, Durham County and north & west midday Tues. Timing is far from ideal (changeover ~2pm-3pm for Wake) making a November snow even harder to come by. Worth watching for a quick mid-day dusting. #ncwx https://t.co/UBj0kzpx0n

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For the Friday system ... RAH

Medium-range models indicate a weak shortwave trough swinging 
through the area Thursday/Friday, however there is a good deal of 
uncertainty regarding the strength of the wave and whether it will 
generate any precipitation. 

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