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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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2 minutes ago, sarcean said:

History has told me there is nothing realistic about Greensboro getting 23" but would love to see it 

2000 Greensboro had 20 inches.  We went there and plowed.  Unreal

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1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

Looks like the totals increased again farther south and east on the GFS.

gfs_asnow_seus_24.thumb.png.3326f7beb4c2097757c50ed40edc7576.png

I'm pulling for those snow totals to increase all the way to the coast. I hate seeing the cutoff line running through our area. Good to have a cushion. 

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6 minutes ago, Berlin1926 said:

RAH is lukewarm at best.  Maybe a few inches along the VA border; zilch everywhere else.  Are the model amounts typically this divorced from the local NWS office?

RAH always seems to be playing catch-up with GSP and RNK.

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Just now, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

Are you by chance using a weather vane or a weather vein?

It gives me 6-10 inches. I’m good though. I’ll just take a cold rain instead. Thanks. :lol: 

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I think we all need to take a few deep breaths. We are close. But this is the same thread different year. Only difference, we aren't in late jan, we are in early Dec.

If I may, I would like to play devils advocate here.

Let's do the say it outloud test. "Model are showing widespread 10-20inches across NC in early december" - We know how this plays out with moisture robbing, warm noses, etc. It doesn't end pretty boys.

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1 minute ago, Queencitywx said:

GEFS is gonna have another stupid high mean 

Yup.. pushing an AVERAGE of 2.5" QPF over CLT

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Just came here cause I have family in the southeast affected by this storm but looks like I visited here at the wrong time.  Anyways looks like the Charlotte area will be close between snow and sleet. 

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12 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Looks like the totals increased again farther south and east on the GFS.

gfs_asnow_seus_24.thumb.png.3326f7beb4c2097757c50ed40edc7576.png

While the numbers are different, you can clearly see the western upstate warm bubble phenomenon, going from 20 in Sptbg to 3 in Oconee; an area that is slightly higher elevation and closer to the mtns. Euro has been showing this as well.

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A few tidbits to keep in mind on this one. The global models are notoriously bad at picking up on mid-level warming (aka changeovers to sleet/freezing rain). I wouldn't get too giddy with any of these precip-type maps until we get into the NAM range. It's generally the best when it comes to the full top-down thermal profile of the atmosphere. 

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Guys, I hate to ask a MBY post when you're likely in storm mode, but I beg a special dispensation: I'm flying back to RDU late Saturday night, and I would like to hear about the timing. I have a very inconsistent internet connection here, and many common sources of information, like Twitter, are blocked by the Great Firewall.

How likely is an impact by Saturday night? Not just in terms of getting on the ground, but also getting home from the airport. I know I could probably read back some pages, but I don't have a whole lot of time, and I'm worried I may lose my connection at any moment.

Thanks, and please have mercy, mods.

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It’s still too early to know if this south push is a long term move.  We’ve seen this occur before around this 3-4 day range and then as soon as everything comes ashore and is sampled the models pull a 180 one way or another and never move back 

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11 minutes ago, PackWxMan said:

I think we all need to take a few deep breaths. We are close. But this is the same thread different year. Only difference, we aren't in late jan, we are in early Dec.

If I may, I would like to play devils advocate here.

Let's do the say it outloud test. "Model are showing widespread 10-20inches across NC in early december" - We know how this plays out with moisture robbing, warm noses, etc. It doesn't end pretty boys.

I'm the weather guy at my school, granted not a good one, mainly the guy that tries to regurgitate all the information I read on here.  Granted I am also the one that loves snow and I have seen the term giddy several times on here and I'm that times freaking 20.  BUTTTTTT, dadgumit there's always a but - is it really possible for this to happen without WAA and everything Pack said? Who knows? Being the optimist, no one thought david could win either.  #BeatGoliath #LetItFreakingSnow

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2 minutes ago, NCSU_Pi said:

Guys, I hate to ask a MBY post when you're likely in storm mode, but I beg a special dispensation: I'm flying back to RDU late Saturday night, and I would like to hear about the timing. I have a very inconsistent internet connection here, and many common sources of information, like Twitter, are blocked by the Great Firewall.

How likely is an impact by Saturday night? Not just in terms of getting on the ground, but also getting home from the airport. I know I could probably read back some pages, but I don't have a whole lot of time, and I'm worried I may lose my connection at any moment.

Thanks, and please have mercy, mods.

Sunday start for the potential heavy stuff.  Should be fine in Ral for saturday night as it stands now.

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Some secondary thoughts, ground temps should at least be on the cool side for this event. We're going to have a couple of days with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s. That should helps set the stage for this storm. **I'm currently at 31 degrees, going to be a good freeze tonight.   

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Just now, McDowell_Weather said:

We're sitting pretty no worry's. 

Good to hear I'm really pulling for at least 12+ I could care less about those 15-25 totals just want a foot that would be amazing for around here.

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Just now, Queencitywx said:

Good lord. 18z GEFS mean looks to be CLOSE to 20” from Charlotte to about Burlington

Until the energy is onshore and being sampled I am having a hard time believing any of this. We have seen this song and dance before only lose it in the next few days.

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