November discussion

[Typhoon Tip]

55 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

You're not wrong there. 

But this is a bit of an odd event, where it's a 1-2 hour potential within a fairly ordinary background CAA wind event. Broadly speaking, if MOS is sustained at or above 20 kts, it'll be advisory gusts. But this event is likely happening between MOS hours. 

Of course wind is a bit of a crapshoot anyway. A couple weeks ago, we had a low end advisory event (peak gust anywhere was 48 mph at PWM) and had nearly 100,000 outages in ME. A few days later we had another CAA event (peak gust 40 mph) and barely 10,000 outages. 

Mm... maybe because of this ?

heh, j/k ...isallobaric wind though -

 

[moneypitmike]

Some heavy showers have been going through, occasional thunder.

[MJO812]

The mid month timeframe should be watched for a storm near the coast.

Tellies look good but of course it will all depend on timing and cold air.

Interior areas would be favored at this point.

[wxeyeNH]

1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

You're not wrong there. 

But this is a bit of an odd event, where it's a 1-2 hour potential within a fairly ordinary background CAA wind event. Broadly speaking, if MOS is sustained at or above 20 kts, it'll be advisory gusts. But this event is likely happening between MOS hours. 

Of course wind is a bit of a crapshoot anyway. A couple weeks ago, we had a low end advisory event (peak gust anywhere was 48 mph at PWM) and had nearly 100,000 outages in ME. A few days later we had another CAA event (peak gust 40 mph) and barely 10,000 outages. 

Don't know how it is on the coastal plain but many of the oak trees are still holding on to their leaves much later than normal.  With wind advisories/watches/warnings are their strick protocols you have to follow or can you take into account the amount of foliage that is or isn't on the trees?

[OceanStWx]

4 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Don't know how it is on the coastal plain but many of the oak trees are still holding on to their leaves much later than normal.  With wind advisories/watches/warnings are their strick protocols you have to follow or can you take into account the amount of foliage that is or isn't on the trees?

There is some wiggle room to issue headlines based on impacts, but those are really hard to guess at. We'd basically need @tamarack on call to tell us which trees hang onto leaves better than others under certain wind conditions. 

We're meteorologists, so sometimes when we guess at impacts we can be wrong (e.g. low snow ratio leading to downed limbs). 

[Damage In Tolland]

Based on 50-60 mph + regionwide with trees several weeks behind leaf wise, it’s possible we see over 500,000 outages in New England tomorrow.

[moneypitmike]

The rains' finally letting up.....what a deluge.

[HoarfrostHubb]

39 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

The rains' finally letting up.....what a deluge.

Tonight is the main show

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Based on 50-60 mph + regionwide with trees several weeks behind leaf wise, it’s possible we see over 500,000 outages in New England tomorrow.

I don't know Kev....I think that might be a bit of a Stretch there lol.  NWS put us into the Wind Advisory category, and not the High Wind Warning, so we'll see if that pans out as they have outlined????

 

No doubt the trees are behind....but what's left will get blown off easily imo, and won't catch the wind like Healthy Green leaves would.  I'll sell on Half a Million without power in New England at this point.  Winds are always a crap shoot...more times than not, it doesn't deliver as forecast...just have to see.  Maybe this time it does???

[weathafella]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Based on 50-60 mph + regionwide with trees several weeks behind leaf wise, it’s possible we see over 500,000 outages in New England tomorrow.

I’m going with less than 10% of that number.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I’m going with less than 10% of that number.

Take em way up

[weathafella]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Take em way up

Up to 46?

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Up to 46?

62

[MBRI]

24 hours lots of change

[Go Kart Mozart]

Lake effect mayhem towards the end of the 10 day as depicted on euro.

[Damage In Tolland]

Euro has one hell of a screaming soueaster next Tuesday. That’s like the Edna Fitzgerald storm as depicted. That would rival the 96 Nov screamer here 

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Euro has one hell of a screaming soueaster next Tuesday. That’s like the Edna Fitzgerald storm as depicted. That would rival the 96 Nov screamer here 

Is that Edmund's wife?

[weathafella]

22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

62

I wish...

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

There is some wiggle room to issue headlines based on impacts, but those are really hard to guess at. We'd basically need @tamarack on call to tell us which trees hang onto leaves better than others under certain wind conditions. 

We're meteorologists, so sometimes when we guess at impacts we can be wrong (e.g. low snow ratio leading to downed limbs). 

Guaranteed my pin oaks will still have there leaves, They don't drop off until spring when the new buds come in.

[dendrite]

36 minutes ago, MBRI said:

24 hours lots of change

Still installed.

[Baroclinic Zone]

My ACs are still in too.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Still installed.

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

There is some wiggle room to issue headlines based on impacts, but those are really hard to guess at. We'd basically need @tamarack on call to tell us which trees hang onto leaves better than others under certain wind conditions. 

We're meteorologists, so sometimes when we guess at impacts we can be wrong (e.g. low snow ratio leading to downed limbs). 

All of the evergreens. 

Taking a stab - as all here know, oaks hold their dead leaves to a greater extent than any other deciduous tree genus.  My now, most everything else up here is bare.  I'll offer my thoughts on vulnerability to wind damage, summer and winter, with some shoulder season comments.  It must first be noted that if gusts get over 60, nothing among tall trees in this region is invulnerable.  At very high wind speeds, the trees left standing probably survived because their position on the landscape and amid other trees shielded them from the strongest winds. 

Most vulnerable - summer
--White pine - It's tall, has most of its sail area high up, and has brittle wood.  Rooting is deeper than most other conifers, but subject to both breakage and uprooting.
--Aspens, especially quaking aspen, which is more rot-prone than bigtooth.  These trees are shaped like a Tootsie Roll pop, thus huge leverage against the base, wood is weaker than pine, rooting is shallow, and they are short lived and defect prone.  A mid-May gale, when aspen here is further leafed out than the other deciduous critters, is tough on the species.
--Balsam fir - Probably has the most shallow rooting of any tree native to the region, wood is a bit stronger than pine but internal defect just above ground makes for breakage.
--Tall non-natives - In particular, black locust tips easily, a surprise because its above ground wood is very strong.  Roots apparently are weaker and less extensive, and their form resembles that of aspen.  Eastern cottonwood has weak wood and is one of the East's tallest trees.
Least vulnerable - summer
--Beech (I've rarely seen them uprooted, can't recall seeing wind breakage), oaks, sugar maple, yellow and black birch
--Cedar, surprisingly - Eastern redcedar is well rooted, brittle but strong, and its usual open-grown habitat means it's used to wind.  Northern white cedar is shallow rooted, often grows in swamps, has fairly weak wood, but it's usually overtopped by other trees and thus somewhat protected and it has much taper, meaning more wood at the base relative to its height.  In a major downburst, it tips along with all the rest.

Most vulnerable - winter
--Here I'd rank fir at the top, as it almost never projects way above the other trees as does white pine.  It's foliage is dense (excellent for deer winter cover; too bad it lives such a short time) and the weak and often defective wood makes fir first in flattening.
--White pine - All its summer vulnerability remains in play.
--Spruces/hemlock - Stronger (especially hemlock) than fir or white pine, somewhat better rooted than fir/cedar/aspen, but dense foliage.  Where these species occur on higher ground amid hardwoods, winter is a challenge.
--Leafy oaks amid the sticks become more vulnerable this time of year, but not so much as the listed conifers.
Least vulnerable - winter
--Most hardwoods other than aspen, and perhaps black locust.  This should be taken with caution when winds are very strong.  The NW gales of 12/31/1962 toppled numerous hardwoods, including oaks; some fully de-leafed large white oaks (deeper rooting than the reds) were ripped out of semi-frozen ground in that event.  (Only 1-2" snow OG, and my high temp on the 31st was 5°, in the evening as the winds slowly began to lessen, and the reading had been below 10 and down as far as -8 since sunrise on 12/30.)

YMMV

[OceanStWx]

14 minutes ago, tamarack said:

All of the evergreens. 

Taking a stab - as all here know, oaks hold their dead leaves to a greater extent than any other deciduous tree genus.  My now, most everything else up here is bare.  I'll offer my thoughts on vulnerability to wind damage, summer and winter, with some shoulder season comments.  It must first be noted that if gusts get over 60, nothing among tall trees in this region is invulnerable.  At very high wind speeds, the trees left standing probably survived because their position on the landscape and amid other trees shielded them from the strongest winds. 

Most vulnerable - summer
--White pine - It's tall, has most of its sail area high up, and has brittle wood.  Rooting is deeper than most other conifers, but subject to both breakage and uprooting.
--Aspens, especially quaking aspen, which is more rot-prone than bigtooth.  These trees are shaped like a Tootsie Roll pop, thus huge leverage against the base, wood is weaker than pine, rooting is shallow, and they are short lived and defect prone.  A mid-May gale, when aspen here is further leafed out than the other deciduous critters, is tough on the species.
--Balsam fir - Probably has the most shallow rooting of any tree native to the region, wood is a bit stronger than pine but internal defect just above ground makes for breakage.
--Tall non-natives - In particular, black locust tips easily, a surprise because its above ground wood is very strong.  Roots apparently are weaker and less extensive, and their form resembles that of aspen.  Eastern cottonwood has weak wood and is one of the East's tallest trees.
Least vulnerable - summer
--Beech (I've rarely seen them uprooted, can't recall seeing wind breakage), oaks, sugar maple, yellow and black birch
--Cedar, surprisingly - Eastern redcedar is well rooted, brittle but strong, and its usual open-grown habitat means it's used to wind.  Northern white cedar is shallow rooted, often grows in swamps, has fairly weak wood, but it's usually overtopped by other trees and thus somewhat protected and it has much taper, meaning more wood at the base relative to its height.  In a major downburst, it tips along with all the rest.

Most vulnerable - winter
--Here I'd rank fir at the top, as it almost never projects way above the other trees as does white pine.  It's foliage is dense (excellent for deer winter cover; too bad it lives such a short time) and the weak and often defective wood makes fir first in flattening.
--White pine - All its summer vulnerability remains in play.
--Spruces/hemlock - Stronger (especially hemlock) than fir or white pine, somewhat better rooted than fir/cedar/aspen, but dense foliage.  Where these species occur on higher ground amid hardwoods, winter is a challenge.
--Leafy oaks amid the sticks become more vulnerable this time of year, but not so much as the listed conifers.
Least vulnerable - winter
--Most hardwoods other than aspen, and perhaps black locust.  This should be taken with caution when winds are very strong.  The NW gales of 12/31/1962 toppled numerous hardwoods, including oaks; some fully de-leafed large white oaks (deeper rooting than the reds) were ripped out of semi-frozen ground in that event.  (Only 1-2" snow OG, and my high temp on the 31st was 5°, in the evening as the winds slowly began to lessen, and the reading had been below 10 and down as far as -8 since sunrise on 12/30.)

YMMV

Definitely off topic for November (but given the run of tornadoes lately maybe not?) - the stuff about white pine definitely makes me wonder if some of our tornado/wind events get overrated. Strictly speaking the EF Scale would have a softwood with a snapped trunk expected around 100 mph with a lower bound of 88 mph. The lower bound for white pine is probably much, much lower than that.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Based on 50-60 mph + regionwide with trees several weeks behind leaf wise, it’s possible we see over 500,000 outages in New England tomorrow.

Just shocking, they dropped the high wind warning for the valley. 

[WinterWolf]

14 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Just shocking, they dropped the high wind warning for the valley. 

They dropped the high wind warning for here  too.  Wind advisory for all in CT...I have a feeling the call for a half million without power in New England tomorrow is in trouble?? 

[OceanStWx]

18 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Just shocking, they dropped the high wind warning for the valley. 

 

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

They dropped the high wind warning for here  too.  Wind advisory for all in CT...I have a feeling the call for a half million without power in New England tomorrow is in trouble?? 

Minor point of contention, they didn't drop a high wind warning. It was a watch (50% or greater confidence) to begin with, so there is a good percentage of time that it will not be upgraded to a warning, but rather an advisory or maybe even nothing sometimes.

[Sugarloaf1989]

Where is leaf drop weeks behind? It's ahead of schedule here in the CRV.  5% green foliage around here. My Oaks are going bare. Last year they had green foliage until late November. The high winds tomorrow will bring stick season early.

[Sugarloaf1989]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Euro has one hell of a screaming soueaster next Tuesday. That’s like the Edna Fitzgerald storm as depicted. That would rival the 96 Nov screamer here 

What's an Edna Fitzgerald?

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

 

Minor point of contention, they didn't drop a high wind warning. It was a watch (50% or greater confidence) to begin with, so there is a good percentage of time that it will not be upgraded to a warning, but rather an advisory or maybe even nothing sometimes.

Oh I understand, I meant to say dropped high wind watch...and I put warning..sorry, my mistake.