CoastalWx Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 It's borderline. Will be a lot of 40-50 though. Not sure we sniff 60mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's borderline. Will be a lot of 40-50 though. Not sure we sniff 60mph. Hey Scott and others, wind just a CT and se thing for Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, 512high said: Hey Scott and others, wind just a CT and se thing for Saturday? Fairly widespread for 40-50 I think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 Take the winds up and take the trees down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 I'm so glad we're getting all this much-needed rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 Might be some sultan issues tonight where the line of shwrs/tstms develop. Will need to watch for SVR. Then tomorrow may get a fine like of shwrs/tstm as cold front passes through and winds rapidly increase behind the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 10 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I'm so glad we're getting all this much-needed rain. my grass likes it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 This should take most of the leaves left, down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 51 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I'm so glad we're getting all this much-needed rain. No qpf worries fo you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 53 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Might be some sultan issues tonight where the line of shwrs/tstms develop. Will need to watch for SVR. Then tomorrow may get a fine like of shwrs/tstm as cold front passes through and winds rapidly increase behind the front. Nice little QLCS this morning across NY, but it's not really oriented all that well with the 0-3 km shear vector to favor mesos. Need that to change if we want to add to the New England tornado count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Nice little QLCS this morning across NY, but it's not really oriented all that well with the 0-3 km shear vector to favor mesos. Need that to change if we want to add to the New England tornado count. Lets see if we can get winds to back a bit tomorrow morning. But yeah, might be more wind related vs mesos. Although some decent UH swaths on the mesos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 2, 2018 Author Share Posted November 2, 2018 Happy Birthday Kevin aka DIT! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 Birthday ‘s at the Blue. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 May there be Damage and Dews and DIPAs for all ! Happy birthday to the great RevKev !! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 Wasnt expecting to wake up at 6 with 40 plus mph gusts. Holy poplar, birch, beech, cottonwood leaf drop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: It's borderline. Will be a lot of 40-50 though. Not sure we sniff 60mph. Already gusted over 40 this AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 Happy Birthday to the biggest Red Sox and Patriots fan there is. May the winds #Do Damage tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Happy Birthday to the biggest Red Sox and Patriots fan there is. May the winds #Do Damage tomorrow. Oh man, it really is the perfect hashtag for him. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 Lol. Thanks for all the damage wishes. If it can’t be cold for my bday.. let’s tear down as many things as we can the next 2 days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 Dark rainy day 46F up here. Approaching 1". No wind to speak of. Enjoy the tropics down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 The HRRR goes insane tomorrrow with Fropa. Have fun Chris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The HRRR goes insane tomorrrow with Fropa. Have fun Chris. Wow, that's a notch up from the 06z run. It's got a 70 kt gust near GYX tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 Right on the leading edge of the dryslot. Conceptually it makes sense, though maybe I would tamp down those HRRR gusts some. Forecast soundings certainly support 50 kt gusts anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 Just now, OceanStWx said: Right on the leading edge of the dryslot. Conceptually it makes sense, though maybe I would tamp down those HRRR gusts some. Forecast soundings certainly support 50 kt gusts anyway. Yeah now that I look at this, there is definitely a window for 50ktrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 Better severe in October/November than May/June We rip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 The long range continues to excite! Despite some yo-yoing, it is active and there is a potent source region for cold. I have a feeling we'll have a traditional northeastern end-to-fall with big swings in temps and thread-the-needle opportunities. According to Michael Ventrice, however, LR modeling has been extremely volatile of late. We'll see! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 I'm getting subdued and less excitable with age... perhaps premature by some. I just don't see 31 kts in the NAM grids as much more than some elevated white noise above the rafters. NAM numbers certainly are not the end-all be-all of metrics, duh. But, ...winds are notoriously horribly handled. Usually over-assessed. Perhaps as a means to parry back-lash in the off-chance that it actually does over-perform (and sometimes it has ) ... we get more watches and warnings than seems to verify. I may be full of sh!t there but...it does seem over the course of my personal experiences, I'm perhaps 10::1 for advisories::verification. we'll see -.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm getting subdued and less excitable with age... perhaps premature by some. I just don't see 31 kts in the NAM grids as much more than some elevated white noise above the rafters. NAM number certainly are not the end-all be-all of metrics, duh. But, ...winds are notoriously horribly handled. Usually over-assessed. Perhaps as a means to parry back-lash in the off-chance that it actually does over-perform (and sometimes it has ) ... we get more watches and warnings than seems to verify. I may be full of sh!t there but...it does seem over the course of my personal experiences, that's I'm perhaps 10::1 for advisories::verification. we'll see -.. You're not wrong there. But this is a bit of an odd event, where it's a 1-2 hour potential within a fairly ordinary background CAA wind event. Broadly speaking, if MOS is sustained at or above 20 kts, it'll be advisory gusts. But this event is likely happening between MOS hours. Of course wind is a bit of a crapshoot anyway. A couple weeks ago, we had a low end advisory event (peak gust anywhere was 48 mph at PWM) and had nearly 100,000 outages in ME. A few days later we had another CAA event (peak gust 40 mph) and barely 10,000 outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm getting subdued and less excitable with age... perhaps premature by some. I just don't see 31 kts in the NAM grids as much more than some elevated white noise above the rafters. NAM numbers certainly are not the end-all be-all of metrics, duh. But, ...winds are notoriously horribly handled. Usually over-assessed. Perhaps as a means to parry back-lash in the off-chance that it actually does over-perform (and sometimes it has ) ... we get more watches and warnings than seems to verify. I may be full of sh!t there but...it does seem over the course of my personal experiences, I'm perhaps 10::1 for advisories::verification. we'll see -.. #LowT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 42 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: #LowT HA! what... thermal inversion ...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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