Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 Could be a crazy AM in SCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 3, 2018 Author Share Posted November 3, 2018 Winter is coming soon per 0Z/3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 4 hours ago, weathafella said: Winter is coming soon per 0Z/3. I’d watch Nov 10 for first snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 2.79" since midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 Top ten wettest autumns have had average to below average snowfall in Boston. Correlation, not causation, but something to ponder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 The Quabbin was 95.7% full on October 1. I'm guessing it'll be nearing capacity as we continue through this wet period. Perhaps getting to 2011-2012 levels. (it actually hit 100.4% at one point). Out of curiosity I just came across this: the Quabbin averages a gain of about 1.6 billion gallons from 1" of rain. Kevin could water his lawn and wash his cars a lot with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Top ten wettest autumns have had average to below average snowfall in Boston. Correlation, not causation, but something to ponder 4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: The Quabbin was 95.7% full on October 1. I'm guessing it'll be nearing capacity as we continue through this wet period. Perhaps getting to 2011-2012 levels. (it actually hit 100.4% at one point). Out of curiosity I just came across this: the Quabbin averages a gain of about 1.6 billion gallons from 1" of rain. Kevin could water his lawn and wash his cars a lot with that. Is Friday night Trivial Pursuit night in GC? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 17 minutes ago, dendrite said: Is Friday night Trivial Pursuit night in GC? Friday night lasts longer in Dendy-land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’d watch Nov 10 for first snowfall Cutter after cutter but active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 The Housatonic at Stevenson dam is ready to overflow. Could be dangerous down river towards Shelton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 GFS is edging the Nov 12th storm from cutter to coastal, next run will be off the coast snowstorm for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: GFS is edging the Nov 12th storm from cutter to coastal, next run will be off the coast snowstorm for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: GFS is edging the Nov 12th storm from cutter to coastal, next run will be off the coast snowstorm for everyone. I'd say an Adirondack ass-kicker is a better bet. A 'Dack's Decks Destroyer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 23 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Cutter after cutter but active. There's a redeveloper being modeled with enough cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 Closing in on 2” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: Closing in on 2” Sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 The ocean to the northeast of Cape Cod is warm still, unless we get a cold drainage of air from Canada, we aren't getting snow on the coast, inland perhaps but not coastal areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Sad. I’m offended Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 Looks like a nice start to cutter season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 3.00", probably some stream/river flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like a nice start to cutter season. Cutter season is magical 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 A bit over 2” from this event. 1” since midnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Cutter season is magical Nice start to winter in plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 Mm... late last evening I mentioned the ominous vibe to the now-cast pieces that were ongoing... At the time, ...there was a rather sudden blossomed line of concentrated heavier shower activity aligned from SE Mass to the northern suburbs of NYC; this feature was moving N with limited or no back-building behavior on radar. It seemed to be developed along the nose of a lower level WCB acceleration, and with the models predicting frontal position where they were at the time, ... it all seemed to suggest that we'd get swashed in a DP spike and perhaps a more deeper layer, better mixed wind momentum scenario during the wee hours of the morning.. I noticed in my slumber... the sounds of the winds actually relaxed. Odd. NWS Taunton mentions, "...Frontal boundary as drifted farther south than models simulated with frontal position at 06z across central CT extending northeast thru the Worcester Hills then into northeast MA..." This was published to their web-site around 2:30 A.M. give or take... Indeed, as the light was coming up an hour ago what cloud parcels could be discerned in an overall gray abyssal ceiling ..were streaking from the ENE. That is not consistent with an pseudo-warm frontal passage and WCB punching up through the area. Interesting. Models and now-cast all were in agreement ... different reality unfolds when not looking. The vagaries of the weather at times seem so guided by the mysterious. Also at that time last evening there were tor-warned cells in western NJ and some ominous appeals on radar with bowing fragments as well.. Trajectories were such that anyone E of roughly a NYC-ASH ~ could be in for some similar action as the whole structure of this system was slated to cut the low up west of Boston ... rapidly deepening between 2am and noon this morning... It just seems that busted in the models... the present SFC chart depicted at WPC has a fragment low structure, with a distracting circulation E of Cape Ann, and a remnant 999 mb low near ALB.. I almost suspect that the models thought maybe that ALB node would be more dominate. It's deeper ...but the frontal tapestry is a hot mess, structured as though it the ALB depth has been abandoned (almost smacks as secondary repositioning, actually). Meanwhile, the low that is [probably] going to do the modeled rapidly intensity change near NYC or even just E. What all this means is that the NAM's 35 kt sustained WCB from 190 over Logan was never going to happen. That also canceled out the convective ideas, too.. Going forward, with the low passing right over head ... the backside wind threat is really going to come down to how rapidly it deepens imo. The winds will remain light with N and E motion ...perhaps even variable for a time ... as the pressure is FR...Then, as the low trundles toward Maine and beyond, that sets the regions up for a pretty solid Isallobaric wind acceleration phenomenon ... as the backside restoring forces briefly exceed the Coriolis..etc. I see those often. Most go without awareness. We just had one actually last week... around 2 to 3 A.M. as a matter of fact. There were sticks and fresh leaf fall debris littering the still wet roadways at dawn, fingerprints of the perpetrator heh. Gusts crescendos pulsed above the roof several times. Never heard a mention of it... CAA gets going in earnest in this afternoon. That can gust with certain import in its own rite with dry adiabatic convective overturning... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 The mesos did hint at some draining into NE MA yesterday. I think the 3K NAM and HRRR at times showed this. We were windy all night here just south of Boston, but perhaps pressure falls and maybe a weak meso low were enough to drain some taint into nrn areas. I do remember seeing this at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The mesos did hint at some draining into NE MA yesterday. I think the 3K NAM and HRRR at times showed this. We were windy all night here just south of Boston, but perhaps pressure falls and maybe a weak meso low were enough to drain some taint into nrn areas. I do remember seeing this at times. Yeah...I'll take your word for it. I've been johnny-come-lately with weather-related agenda as of late. I don't know.. turning over tepid air masses in between midland scaled pedestrian low depths, hoping to roll a seven on an EOFer in a some weird GW-stretched faux severe season ... it doesn't really interest me much. But, I happened to look the general overview around 10:30 and saw those warned cells and that general appeal on radar - it's funny how that lies like that. Satellite does that too! You can crash with undeniable, inexorable result absolutely destined to happen with these technological -provided evidences signing signature of certitude... wake up? sunny. It's as though "The Matrix" altered reality its self. This isn't that bad ...and like you say, there may have ancillary tools yesterday that dimmed this threat/potential in the front side of this low buuut, if the Universe has to work that hard to conceal its intent to f-up a perfectly good evaluation of a now-cast then fine. Ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Closing in on 2” 1.59 and pouring again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 Now let’s rip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Top ten wettest autumns have had average to below average snowfall in Boston. Correlation, not causation, but something to ponder I want to check top ten wettest years cuz we are there. Mostly average years with the 11 /12 ratter and 1955 Diane year wettest. I am pretty confident this will be my wettest year since I moved up here in 2001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah...I'll take your word for it. I've been johnny-come-lately with weather-related agenda as of late. I don't know.. turning over tepid air masses in between midland scaled pedestrian low depths, hoping to roll a seven on an EOFer in a some weird GW-stretched faux severe season ... it doesn't really interest me much. But, I happened to look the general overview around 10:30 and saw those warned cells and that general appeal on radar - it's funny how that lies like that. Satellite does that too! You can crash with undeniable, inexorable result absolutely destined to happen with these technological -provided evidences signing signature of certitude... wake, sunny. This isn't that bad ...and like you say, there may have ancillary tools yesterday that dimmed this threat/potential in the front side of this low buuut, if the Universe has to work that hard to conceal its intent to f-up a perfectly good evaluation of a now-cast that fine. Ha We did have a SVR warned cell here earlier. But, it was post fropa and winds were stabilized at that point. This was sort of cold front number 1 that came through with the weak low NE of BOS. Winds are now NE. They will turn around to the SE and S ahead of the real front as the low you mentioned rapidly develops. I only mentioned my earlier comment since i was looking at KBOS heavily yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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