WinterWolf Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 21 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I don’t know who said that but we always take the under west of the river inland. I’ll give you one guess who said that yesterday lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 3 hours ago, WinterWolf said: I’ll give you one guess who said that yesterday lol... It’s been a gusty afternoon, several twigs down on the property. Stay safe if you go outdoors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 Yes sir..leaves are a blowin everywhere..can take an eye out! I wonder how many hundreds of thousands are without power at this time??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 3, 2018 Author Share Posted November 3, 2018 Maybe 15,000 in all of New England without power. 485,000 to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Maybe 15,000 in all of New England without power. 485,000 to go. Lmao....I think we can get there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 I wouldn't make fun of it though, either. We discussed yesterday that wind is not a high confidence metric to guidance for, and that there is a "necessary" propensity to over warn the event. But the fact of the matter is, it was inherently low confidence so making fun of it is ..kind of aholey actually. You have to warn people... Momentum mixing and Ekman resolution issues is far from well understood. There are scenarios that have occurred that appear to have the same input conditions that produced wind. Which we got anyway...there's a couple trees down around town (rt 2). One of which was in my back yard actually... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 3, 2018 Author Share Posted November 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I wouldn't make fun of it though, either. We discussed yesterday that wind is not a high confidence metric to guidance for, and that there is a "necessary" propensity to over warn the event. But the fact of the matter is, it was inherently low confidence so making fun of it is ..kind of aholey actually. You have to warn people... Momentum mixing and Ekman resolution issues is far from well understood. There are scenarios that have occurred that appear to have the same input conditions that produced wind. Which we got anyway...there's a couple trees down around town (rt 2). One of which was in my back yard actually... When a poster predicts a half million without power in this scenario-fun is what you make of it. 3 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 18Z GFS is close to being snow for Friday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 18 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 18Z GFS is close to being snow for Friday night Don’t even bother. That’s a terrible look for a snowstorm in winter let alone early Nov. Lows in Quebec are no bueno for sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 49 minutes ago, weathafella said: When a poster predicts a half million without power in this scenario-fun is what you make of it. Ah ...gotcha - I thought that was in general, but it was targeting a particular goof ball - right... Castigation should know no bounds then - 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 In storm reports, what does HADS stand for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 Higher wind gusts here last month with C.F. passages. The wind is bringing a rapid end to the foliage season this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said: In storm reports, what does HADS stand for? Wish we HADS high winds? 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: In storm reports, what does HADS stand for? Hydrometeorological Automated Data System https://hads.ncep.noaa.gov/index.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 1 hour ago, dendrite said: Hydrometeorological Automated Data System https://hads.ncep.noaa.gov/index.shtml Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 5 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Ah ...gotcha - I thought that was in general, but it was targeting a particular goof ball - right... Castigation should know no bounds then - Exactly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 It looks like the winter storm threat is around November 13-15th, not so much 10-12th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 That weak southern stream Miller A this next Friday is perhaps a little interesting to the winter enthusiasts. It is 'low probability' for occurrence - I repeat, low probability. Though it is 5.5 days away and not really in the operational GFS' wheelhouse (if that particular model actually has a wheelhouse), it's been in every run cycle going back several at this point. It's a complex interaction of major synoptic players giving a low probability for a light QPF, through a column that teeters with marginal cold. As fleeting are the chances as that run-on sentence implies... now that the MLB season has finally clocked its final hurrah, and now that Halloween is at last passe (two of the utmost Meteorologically important metrics ) ... we should start to consider these isothermal/dynamic layouts. Just entering a better climatology for cool corrections. Sort of an unrelated note ... I am wondering if the 00z Euro products didn't flush out properly. I'm a freebie-reliant consumer, which means ...beggars can't be choosers. However, it seems those panels are unaltered comparing to the previous night's run. I'm wondering if the time change might have caused software at these host sites to slip out of sync. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 2 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: It looks like the winter storm threat is around November 13-15th, not so much 10-12th. Gefs is also on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: That weak southern stream Miller A this next Friday is perhaps a little interesting to the winter enthusiasts. It is 'low probability' for occurrence - I repeat, low probability. Though it is 5.5 days away and not really in the operational GFS' wheelhouse (if that particular model actually has a wheelhouse), it's been in every run cycle going back several at this point. It's a complex interaction of major synoptic players giving a low probability for a light QPF, through a column that teeters with marginal cold. As fleeting are the chances as that run-on sentence implies... now that the MLB season has finally clocked its final hurrah, and now that Halloween is at last passe (two of the utmost Meteorologically important metrics ) ... we should start to consider these isothermal/dynamic layouts. Just entering a better climatology for cool corrections. Sort of an unrelated note ... I am wondering if the 00z Euro products didn't flush out properly. I'm a freebie-reliant consumer, which means ...beggars can't be choosers. However, it seems those panels are unaltered comparing to the previous night's run. I'm wondering if the time change might have caused software at these host sites to slip out of sync. PSU Ewall didn't update. Try Tropical Tidbits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 2 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said: PSU Ewall didn't update. Try Tropical Tidbits. I did ...but it looks as though 'Tidbits updated his timestamps but the actual model content did not - ... not for certain but it's dubious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 4, 2018 Author Share Posted November 4, 2018 That looks like a rather potent cold shot next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 4, 2018 Author Share Posted November 4, 2018 Lol...considering the calendar date that’s a run of the 12z/4 operational euro. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 57 minutes ago, weathafella said: Lol...considering the calendar date that’s a run of the 12z/4 operational euro. EPS support, winter is coming quickly 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 41 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: EPS support, winter is coming quickly Some hits for mid month on eps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 I would not rule out 1st flakes around mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 4, 2018 Author Share Posted November 4, 2018 Then consensus is lifting out and warming some thanksgiving week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Then consensus is lifting out and warming some thanksgiving week. Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 4, 2018 Author Share Posted November 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Link? paywall eps. Not an inferno but more zonality. Hard to know where it goes next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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