Brasiluvsnow Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It’s all by itself end time ? Best guesstimate ? Im heading to TT now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 8 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: end time ? Best guesstimate ? Im heading to TT now Mid afternoon for the steady precipitation. Showers lasting into Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 MT HOLLY just upgraded the Jersey Shore to the HWW. I'll be reporting at the Manasquan Inlet from 8-3 tomorrow. ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY... The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a High Wind Warning, which is in effect from 3 AM to 11 AM EDT Saturday. The Wind Advisory is no longer in effect. * WINDS...East 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. * TIMING...From late tonight through Saturday morning. * IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power lines. Scattered power outages are expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 Agreed, most of the area sees winds in the 30s, some spots that can get mixing may see close to 50. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 6 hours ago, MeteorologicalFan said: Monticello should get some heavy wet snow if it wetbulbs tonight. It’s definitely colder than modeled NYZ046-057-062-271500- /O.NEW.KBGM.WW.Y.0024.181027T0600Z-181027T1500Z/ Otsego-Delaware-Sullivan- Including the cities of Oneonta, Delhi, Walton, and Monticello 245 PM EDT Fri Oct 26 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of up to one inch...with up to 2 inches possible at elevations above 2000 ft. Ice accumulations of a light glaze expected. * WHERE...Otsego, Delaware and Sullivan Counties. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 11 AM EDT Saturday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Gusty winds may cause reduced visibility tonight and Saturday morning. The strong winds combined with snow and light icing may also cause downed trees which could lead to isolated power outages. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 Flash Flood Watch issued here thru Saturday afternoon for 2-3" of rain with locally higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 central LI sounding tomorrow. impressive elevated cape and low level winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 26, 2018 Author Share Posted October 26, 2018 12 minutes ago, forkyfork said: central LI sounding tomorrow. impressive elevated cape and low level winds Yeah, the 18z run upped the elevated cape and maintained the very impressive LLJ which could mix down. These extreme midlevel lapse rates continue to be very impressive for October. 15z sounding near the South Shore of Suffolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 27, 2018 Share Posted October 27, 2018 Rain from the upcoming nor'easter is spreading northward. Some daily and annual figures for 2018 through 9 pm: Rainfall Today: Baltimore: 0.18” Richmond: 1.15” Roanoke: 1.03” Washington, DC: 0.27” Wilmington, NC: 1.15” 2018 Totals: Baltimore: 55.90” (7th wettest year) Richmond: 53.62” (12th wettest year) Roanoke: 51.21” (12th wettest year) Washington, DC: 51.91” (12th wettest year) Wilmington, NC: 88.61” (wettest year on record) 9:05 pm Update: Richmond's daily rainfall rose to 1.23", bringing the 2018 total precipitation to 53.70". That surpasses the 53.68" that fell in 2013 for Richmond's 11th wettest year on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2018 Share Posted October 27, 2018 Heavy rain coming north on the radar It is going to be a nasty overnight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 27, 2018 Share Posted October 27, 2018 Getting gustier outside. Nothing big but some maybe around 20 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 27, 2018 Share Posted October 27, 2018 I'll be on standby to shoot up to Hunter for snowliage shots around daybreak, but temps in the northern Catskills seem to be running a bit warm, and the evening guidance has backtracked a bit on the wintrier afternoon solutions. The HRRR progged column supports snow until about 11z, albeit with paltry QPF to work with until after the changeover... 3km NAM is more robust with the ML warmth, but also cooler in the BL for a brief ice threat. Not as optimistic for snow accumulation chances in the mountains as I was several hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 27, 2018 Share Posted October 27, 2018 5 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Getting gustier outside. Nothing big but some maybe around 20 mph. Winds have definitely picked up here, like you said nothing big but a definite uptick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted October 27, 2018 Share Posted October 27, 2018 15 hours ago, Rjay said: Fwiw Upton is forecasting moderate flood stage in Freeport but the site I use still shows major. Latest: Freeport NY MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 5.7 FT, MODERATE 6.2 FT, MAJOR 6.9 FT MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.2 FT, MODERATE 1.7 FT, MAJOR 2.4 FT FOR NGVD - SUBTRACT 1.2 FT FROM MLLW VALUES Total Total Departure Day/Time Tide Tide from Norm Waves Flood ft MLLW ft MHHW ft ft Impact -------- --------- --------- --------- ------- -------- 27/11 AM 6.7/ 7.2 2.2/ 2.7 3.0/ 3.5 0-2 Major 27/11 PM 5.7/ 6.2 1.3/ 1.8 2.7/ 3.2 1 Minor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted October 27, 2018 Share Posted October 27, 2018 1 hour ago, Juliancolton said: I'll be on standby to shoot up to Hunter for snowliage shots around daybreak, but temps in the northern Catskills seem to be running a bit warm, and the evening guidance has backtracked a bit on the wintrier afternoon solutions. The HRRR progged column supports snow until about 11z, albeit with paltry QPF to work with until after the changeover... 3km NAM is more robust with the ML warmth, but also cooler in the BL for a brief ice threat. Not as optimistic for snow accumulation chances in the mountains as I was several hours ago. Drove up to our place near Gore Mountain tonight - optimistic for at least a ground whitening tomorrow. NWS going with 2-4" above 1500' here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 27, 2018 Share Posted October 27, 2018 15 hours ago, qg_omega said: Where can I find the surge forecast for Jamaica Bay? http://hudson.dl.stevens-tech.edu/sfas/d/index.shtml?station=SPJFKAP1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 27, 2018 Share Posted October 27, 2018 Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 27, 2018 Share Posted October 27, 2018 I mean at least it's not this... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 27, 2018 Share Posted October 27, 2018 And over a foot lower than Irene. But after looking at this I really hope people moved their cars tn bc there will be very significant flooding tomorrow morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 27, 2018 Share Posted October 27, 2018 System near 37.6N 76.6W. [5:30am] It seems Cape May good for 40mph + gusts now, while we are nearing 20mph gusts at best so far. We should be there in about 3 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted October 27, 2018 Share Posted October 27, 2018 looks like the heavy stuff is done, mote showery from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 27, 2018 Share Posted October 27, 2018 The wind is really starting to pick up here. Picked up 0.55" of rain so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted October 27, 2018 Share Posted October 27, 2018 57 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: looks like the heavy stuff is done, mote showery from here on out. 0.24 of rain here. Forecast was 1.5 to 2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 27, 2018 Author Share Posted October 27, 2018 Gusting to 62mph now on the Jersey Shore. First downed trees and power outages showing up now. At 6:25 AM EDT, 1 NE Harvey Cedars [Ocean Co, NJ] NJWXNET reports NON-TSTM WND GST of M62 MPH mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/lsr/#PHI/20181… 4:18 AM - 27 Oct 2018 from Harvey Cedars, NJ At 6:55 AM EDT, West Long Branch [Monmouth Co, NJ] LAW ENFORCEMENT reports NON-TSTM WND DMG. DOWNED TREES AND BRANCHES CAUSING POWER OUTAGES IN WEST LONG BRANCH.mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/lsr/#PHI/20181… 4:29 AM - 27 Oct 2018 from West Long Branch, NJ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted October 27, 2018 Share Posted October 27, 2018 Rain was way off so far , only .60 here so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 27, 2018 Share Posted October 27, 2018 0.75" here so far with light rain falling...winds gusting over 30 mph now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 27, 2018 Share Posted October 27, 2018 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Gusting to 62mph now on the Jersey Shore. First downed trees and power outages showing up now. At 6:25 AM EDT, 1 NE Harvey Cedars [Ocean Co, NJ] NJWXNET reports NON-TSTM WND GST of M62 MPH mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/lsr/#PHI/20181… 4:18 AM - 27 Oct 2018 from Harvey Cedars, NJ At 6:55 AM EDT, West Long Branch [Monmouth Co, NJ] LAW ENFORCEMENT reports NON-TSTM WND DMG. DOWNED TREES AND BRANCHES CAUSING POWER OUTAGES IN WEST LONG BRANCH.mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/lsr/#PHI/20181… 4:29 AM - 27 Oct 2018 from West Long Branch, NJ Seaside Park had a gust to 65 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 27, 2018 Share Posted October 27, 2018 2 hours ago, Snowlover11 said: looks like the heavy stuff is done, mote showery from here on out. The NAM with another win on the faster arrival and departure of this one.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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