bluewave Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 Remnant moisture from major Hurricane Willa will get absorbed into a developing storm system in the Gulf of Mexico this week. There will be some degree of phasing with the disturbance moving across the Great Lakes. This will enhance the heavy rain and high wind potential especially with such a strong high pressure over SE Canada. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Storm Watcher Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 Might be a good snowstorm Upstate,similar to 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 2 hours ago, NYC Storm Watcher said: Might be a good snowstorm Upstate,similar to 2011. I was in Ithaca in 2011 and we got nothing from that system. There was a very sharp cutoff NW of I-88. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 3 hours ago, bluewave said: Remnant moisture from major Hurricane Willa will get absorbed into a developing storm system in the Gulf of Mexico this week. There will be some degree of phasing with the disturbance moving across the Great Lakes. This will enhance the heavy rain and high wind potential especially with such a strong high pressure over SE Canada. GFS looks warm core up to 38N. Given the tropical origins of this and being in latter half of Hurricane season, I’m not anticipating a run-of-the-mill Nor’ Easter type outcome. Will be interesting to see what the SLP looks like when it makes its way into the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 Pretty good discussion from Joe Cioffi on this weekends storm potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 Any chance we see a few flakes out of it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 8 minutes ago, TriPol said: Any chance we see a few flakes out of it? We may not even see rain from it 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeteorologicalFan Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 5 hours ago, TriPol said: Any chance we see a few flakes out of it? For sure if you’re north of of 287, I think that’s the least you see unless this cuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 Very weak storm I miss the 950mb that the Euro showed Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Very weak storm I miss the 950mb that the Euro showed Saturday morning. It is starting to look unlikely that we will see a stronger storm. Lets see what the next 24 hours brings to see if there will be any changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 On a side note, never let "bluewave" start a storm specific thread again lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeteorologicalFan Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 This is a fluke now, how did this happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 Very weak on all models 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 23, 2018 Author Share Posted October 23, 2018 On October 23, 2018 at 6:16 AM, Rtd208 said: It is starting to look unlikely that we will see a stronger storm. Lets see what the next 24 hours brings to see if there will be any changes. Even though the models don't have such a deep low pressure for a coastal, the strong high to our NE is strong. So the pressure gradient is very tight. Both the Euro and GFS have wind gust potential over 50 mph along the coast on Saturday. The trees are still leafed out with wet soil from all the rains this year. The models slow the storm to our south which could result in an extended period of higher winds especially along the coast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 34 minutes ago, bluewave said: Even though the models don't have such a deep low pressure for a coastal, the 1040 mb high to our NE is strong. So the pressure gradient is very tight. Both the Euro and GFS have wind gust potential over 50 mph along the coast on Saturday. The trees are still leafed out with wet soil from all the rains this year. The models slow the storm to our south which could result in an extended period of higher winds especially along the coast. The storm is very weak, those winds are offshore we should have a strong inversion, unless that breaks winds shouldn't gust higher than the 30s. The storm last weak was modeled in the 970s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 23, 2018 Author Share Posted October 23, 2018 On October 23, 2018 at 7:48 AM, qg_omega said: The storm is very weak, those winds are offshore we should have a strong inversion, unless that breaks winds shouldn't gust higher than the 30s. The storm last weak was modeled in the 970s. You don't need a deep low pressure to get strong wind gusts over 50 mph along the coast with a big high to the north. The ocean is still in the 60's which is warmer than normal for late October. So coastal sections that get into an onshore flow won't have much trouble mixing down the LLJ. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 29 minutes ago, qg_omega said: The storm is very weak, those winds are offshore we should have a strong inversion, unless that breaks winds shouldn't gust higher than the 30s. The storm last weak was modeled in the 970s. 50mph winds are well agreed upon across Long Island and the Jersey Shore. The forecast soundings are highly supportive of the maps bluewave has posted. It's all about the gradient. The GFS had been farthest offshore w/ the low, but, as can pretty much always be expected this far out, it continues to correct closer. I suspect it will ride the coast once to the Outer Banks. Should produce significant snowfall across higher terrain well inland, as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 Agree that the pressure gradient is quite strong not to mention the storm will have integrated Willa's remnants so rainfall could be heavier than shown. For coastals, gradient is more important than just low strength, I've seen 960s to 970s lows not even give us advisory winds. April 2007 comes to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 28 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: 50mph winds are well agreed upon across Long Island and the Jersey Shore. The forecast soundings are highly supportive of the maps bluewave has posted. It's all about the gradient. The GFS had been farthest offshore w/ the low, but, as can pretty much always be expected this far out, it continues to correct closer. I suspect it will ride the coast once to the Outer Banks. Should produce significant snowfall across higher terrain well inland, as well. It a shell of the storm modeled a few days ago, maybe the phasing aligns better in later runs but its very sloppy at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 17 minutes ago, qg_omega said: It a shell of the storm modeled a few days ago, maybe the phasing aligns better in later runs but its very sloppy at the moment. who cares? 3 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 Apparently nobody saw the 06z GFS. It produces a nasty situation for much of Upstate NY and interior New England with heavy wet snow and ice in some areas, granted most of that area is already well past peak foliage. At H5 this still has all the ingredients of a solid storm. Nice negatively tilted trough and a strong LLJ injection coming in off the ocean. I suspect that this will correct back over the next few days into something more significant for the immediate area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 That high pressure pressing down will definitely increase the gradient so even with a weak LP it’ll still get pretty windy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 i can't find any euro runs that show a low in the 970's hitting us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 17 minutes ago, forkyfork said: i can't find any euro runs that show a low in the 970's hitting us What about the 950 that metsfan was talking about above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 4 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: What about the 950 that metsfan was talking about above day 9 and it stayed offshore 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 NAM while out of range is much faster with the storm-has rain arriving by dark Friday night.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 34 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: NAM while out of range is much faster with the storm-has rain arriving by dark Friday night.... It's much flatter than the rest of the guidance at H5 which explains the difference in timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 Uggh. I need to drive to Philly early Saturday morning and home Sunday evening then have a bunch of outdoor stuff planned for next week/weekend up here and further north. Yuck... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 19 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It's much flatter than the rest of the guidance at H5 which explains the difference in timing. WX85 or someone else can you explain to me (and possibly others ) what you mean by" flatter " ???? What makes this run " flatter " ? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeteorologicalFan Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 This is cutting that means rain for everyone and rain up from Friday after midnight until Saturday afternoon. Drizzle Saturday night, Sunday sprinkles a bit windy with a shower or two turning colder Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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