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October 27 2018 Major East Coast Storm


bluewave

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MT HOLLY just upgraded the Jersey Shore to the HWW.  I'll be reporting at the Manasquan Inlet from 8-3 tomorrow.

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a High
Wind Warning, which is in effect from 3 AM to 11 AM EDT Saturday.
The Wind Advisory is no longer in effect.

* WINDS...East 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* TIMING...From late tonight through Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power
  lines. Scattered power outages are expected.
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6 hours ago, MeteorologicalFan said:

Monticello should get some heavy wet snow if it wetbulbs tonight. It’s definitely colder than modeled

NYZ046-057-062-271500-
/O.NEW.KBGM.WW.Y.0024.181027T0600Z-181027T1500Z/
Otsego-Delaware-Sullivan-
Including the cities of Oneonta, Delhi, Walton, and Monticello
245 PM EDT Fri Oct 26 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of
  up to one inch...with up to 2 inches possible at elevations
  above 2000 ft. Ice accumulations of a light glaze expected.

* WHERE...Otsego, Delaware and Sullivan Counties.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 11 AM EDT Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Gusty
  winds may cause reduced visibility tonight and Saturday morning.
  The strong winds combined with snow and light icing may also
  cause downed trees which could lead to isolated power outages.

 

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12 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

central LI sounding tomorrow. impressive elevated cape and low level winds

Yeah, the 18z run upped the elevated cape and maintained the very impressive LLJ which could mix down. These extreme midlevel lapse rates continue to be very impressive for October.

15z sounding near the South Shore of Suffolk

IMG_0295.thumb.PNG.a84e20f7d0ff7ecaf701a039337a02be.PNG

 

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Rain from the upcoming nor'easter is spreading northward. Some daily and annual figures for 2018 through 9 pm:

Rainfall Today:
Baltimore: 0.18”
Richmond: 1.15”
Roanoke: 1.03”
Washington, DC: 0.27”
Wilmington, NC: 1.15”

2018 Totals:
Baltimore: 55.90” (7th wettest year)
Richmond: 53.62” (12th wettest year)
Roanoke: 51.21” (12th wettest year)
Washington, DC: 51.91” (12th wettest year)
Wilmington, NC: 88.61” (wettest year on record)

9:05 pm Update: Richmond's daily rainfall rose to 1.23", bringing the 2018 total precipitation to 53.70". That surpasses the 53.68" that fell in 2013 for Richmond's 11th wettest year on record.

 

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I'll be on standby to shoot up to Hunter for snowliage shots around daybreak, but temps in the northern Catskills seem to be running a bit warm, and the evening guidance has backtracked a bit on the wintrier afternoon solutions. The HRRR progged column supports snow until about 11z, albeit with paltry QPF to work with until after the changeover... 3km NAM is more robust with the ML warmth, but also cooler in the BL for a brief ice threat. Not as optimistic for snow accumulation chances in the mountains as I was several hours ago.

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15 hours ago, Rjay said:

Fwiw Upton is forecasting moderate flood stage in Freeport but the site I use still shows major.  

Latest:

 

Freeport NY
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 5.7 FT, MODERATE 6.2 FT, MAJOR 6.9 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.2 FT, MODERATE 1.7 FT, MAJOR 2.4 FT
FOR NGVD - SUBTRACT 1.2 FT FROM MLLW VALUES

             Total      Total    Departure
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 27/11 AM   6.7/ 7.2   2.2/ 2.7   3.0/ 3.5    0-2     Major
 27/11 PM   5.7/ 6.2   1.3/ 1.8   2.7/ 3.2     1      Minor
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1 hour ago, Juliancolton said:

I'll be on standby to shoot up to Hunter for snowliage shots around daybreak, but temps in the northern Catskills seem to be running a bit warm, and the evening guidance has backtracked a bit on the wintrier afternoon solutions. The HRRR progged column supports snow until about 11z, albeit with paltry QPF to work with until after the changeover... 3km NAM is more robust with the ML warmth, but also cooler in the BL for a brief ice threat. Not as optimistic for snow accumulation chances in the mountains as I was several hours ago.

Drove up to our place near Gore Mountain tonight - optimistic for at least a ground whitening tomorrow.   NWS going with 2-4" above 1500' here...

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Gusting to  62mph  now on the Jersey Shore. First downed trees and power outages showing up now.

At 6:25 AM EDT, 1 NE Harvey Cedars [Ocean Co, NJ] NJWXNET reports NON-TSTM WND GST of M62 MPH mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/lsr/#PHI/20181…
4:18 AM - 27 Oct 2018 from Harvey Cedars, NJ
 
At 6:55 AM EDT, West Long Branch [Monmouth Co, NJ] LAW ENFORCEMENT reports NON-TSTM WND DMG. DOWNED TREES AND BRANCHES CAUSING POWER OUTAGES IN WEST LONG BRANCH.mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/lsr/#PHI/20181…
4:29 AM - 27 Oct 2018 from West Long Branch, NJ
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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Gusting to  62mph  now on the Jersey Shore. First downed trees and power outages showing up now.

At 6:25 AM EDT, 1 NE Harvey Cedars [Ocean Co, NJ] NJWXNET reports NON-TSTM WND GST of M62 MPH mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/lsr/#PHI/20181…
4:18 AM - 27 Oct 2018 from Harvey Cedars, NJ
 
At 6:55 AM EDT, West Long Branch [Monmouth Co, NJ] LAW ENFORCEMENT reports NON-TSTM WND DMG. DOWNED TREES AND BRANCHES CAUSING POWER OUTAGES IN WEST LONG BRANCH.mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/lsr/#PHI/20181…
4:29 AM - 27 Oct 2018 from West Long Branch, NJ

Seaside Park had a gust to 65 mph.

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