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nj2va

March 20/21 STORM Obs/Discussion- No Banter

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2 minutes ago, Kleimax said:

how much do you have? i just measured anywhere from 3-3.5 

Measured 3.8" a few hours ago. 

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13 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

3" here - just measured a few minutes ago. Coming down very nicely. 

What part of Colesville are you in? I'm off Old Bonifant just north of the ICC and my neighborhood by the New Hampshire Ave "ridge" usually seems to overperform what I see reported nearby. Just measured 3.75 on my deck rail.

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1 minute ago, NovaTarHeel said:

I'm now up above freezing in Fairfax.  As long as rates stay up like they are, it shouldn't mess with anything.  I just want to hit that 8" mark.  Little over halfway there already. 

I’m hoping for 6, would love 8, but 12” is always my goal!  Not that I plan to get that in this storm.  Maybe if the Low had stayed tucked in...

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2 minutes ago, WeSuck said:

When is the pivot going to occur. I am beginning to become JI-irritated with this lull out here in Leesburg...

I lived in the same hood as Ji, he actually moved into my neighborhood years ago. I moved away for a bit but now I'm back but in Lansdowne to your east. It's still coming down ok here

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3 minutes ago, WeSuck said:

When is the pivot going to occur. I am beginning to become JI-irritated with this lull out here in Leesburg...

HRRR shows things building SW again after 18z

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1 minute ago, supernovasky said:

I think I am seeing some signs of some east-west flow in the last couple radar frames. Could be radar ghosts but if so, we could be good for some time here.

This is the money part of the storm where there should be few lulls. Strong moisture feed and good lift on the north side of the ull. Once that shifts to our NE the personality of the storm will change. Could be bands of mod snow with subsidence in between or it could lose good dynamics and underwhelm. Just have to sweat it out. Right now is the bread and butter. Constant mod accum snow for the next couple hours. Enjoy the F out of it. 

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1 minute ago, AU74 said:

What part of Colesville are you in? I'm off Old Bonifant just north of the ICC and my neighborhood by the New Hampshire Ave "ridge" usually seems to overperform what I see reported nearby. Just measured 3.75 on my deck rail.

I'm south of you near Springbook High School (can get there through the woods). 

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Boom there it is! My neighborhood spotter reports 4” at the top of the hour. And that’s all new snow today. 

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1 minute ago, Fozz said:

Measured 3.8" a few hours ago. 

dayum what the hell. And thats including all the sleet from yesterday

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1 minute ago, snowmagnet said:

I’m hoping for 6, would love 8, but 12” is always my goal!  Not that I plan to get that in this storm.  Maybe if the Low had stayed tucked in...

I just wanted to hit LWX's 8-12" call, so really 12" is my goal too, lol.  I don't see that happening, but I wouldn't complain if it did.  Our area is looking pretty good radar wise, too.  At least for the next few hours.  We'll see what happens with the pivot. 

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Radar looking pretty paltry out here. Meso's not looking awesome for us far NW folks either. Maybe we can eek out another inch or 2. Cant really complain though. By far my biggest event since the 2016 blizzard. And really nice for a late March event.

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17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

@iembot_lwx on twitter. Auto posts reports and LWX notices.

Thanks for the info!

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Measured 3", which tells me that my ruler has some serious issues. The storm is over in N Arlington, and therefore I should not be measuring 3".

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This will help folks visualize what I was just talking about. Looks at the close h5 low. Lift on the NE side aided by strong inflow off the atlantic from SLP off the mouth of the bay. The entire thing will rotate underneath of us and OTS. Much can go right or wrong later but right now is money. 

fvs9kvt.jpg

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20 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Nice band setting up over Alexandria/So Arl and one over DC extending westward into McLean.

Yes McLean doing well for the last 30 minutes 

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Dover radar clearly showing (via echo tops) a mixture of weak upright and what is probably slantwise convection helping rates towards BWI and DCA atm. Good lapse rates aloft are helping a lot today, aiding what would otherwise be pretty mediocre lift.

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1 minute ago, snjókoma said:

Measured 3", which tells me that my ruler has some serious issues. The storm is over in N Arlington, and therefore I should not be measuring 3".

This is your best post EVER 

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Have about 6-7"  Not amazed, banding really persistent just north of me.  We keep getting snizzle.   10 miles north of I70 does not average a lot more snow so this is just the luck of the draw.

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Wow. Snowing like crazy on 29 between Columbia and Ellicott city. Bands forming just south of BAL are impressive and keep coming our way. 

SN+ 

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rgem, similar to the nam, keeps the new coastal low tucked slightly closer to the coast/southeast this run.  not sure if that would make much of a difference here.  otherwise, no notable changes.

edit: meant to say southwest

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