WxBlue Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: NAM rips gusts to 60mph inland. Gonna be wild with the snow flying and plastering to everything tomorrow afternoon/night Um... I'm a bit skeptical about winds blowing that high inland NH and Mass... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, WxBlue said: Um... I'm a bit skeptical about winds blowing that high inland NH and Mass... Yep. Always take the under. Hurricane Andrew could be rumbling up the Merrimack and I'd take the under on winds in ASH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Euro gonna bring us all back to reality as we come off the NAM high lol....at least out West of the River anyway. The Euro is gonna be a disappoitment for most if I had to guess...just my gut feeling. It is more than just the nam high. I dont like your spot though. I think its route 8 and west for the cooler column. I have no idea what the euro will do, speculating is just gobblydeegook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Hmm, 78 PSM? 55 EEN, we toss. Almost a 2010 redux in NH. Hard to buy into that kind of wind here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 All options are on the table. ALL options. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Why would it be too cold? It makes sense to me. What's the alternate?GFS? LOL. very puzzling. good pros usually take nam thermals and mix it in with other guidance. cant take the nam verbatim at every level but the cold look has merit, esp when others are moving to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Euro gonna bring us all back to reality as we come off the NAM high lol....at least out West of the River anyway. The Euro is gonna be a disappoitment for most if I had to guess...just my gut feeling. I agree. Tossing all models that don't show snow is how we've run this event.....hence why the NWS isn't showing much snow because they know better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, DomNH said: Yep. Always take the under. Hurricane Andrew could be rumbling up the Merrimack and I'd take the under on winds in ASH. Way under simply because of our terrain... and the fact we're apparently higher than Cape Cod on this map. I'm expecting gusts up to 50 mph around here personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, friedmators said: Did they give reasoning or just a known bias? 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Why would it be too cold? It makes sense to me. What's the alternate?GFS? LOL. "The NAM also appears to have too much cold air in the boundary layer considering the degree of cold air initially in place, along with the fact that there will be very strong Atlantic inflow which will tend to moderate the thermal profiles in the low levels." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, DomNH said: Yep. Always take the under. Hurricane Andrew could be rumbling up the Merrimack and I'd take the under on winds in ASH. ASH (atleast the airport) seems to do much better on WNW winds rather than E or NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Why would it be too cold? It makes sense to me. What's the alternate?GFS? LOL. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Why would it be too cold? It makes sense to me. What's the alternate?GFS? LOL. Boxing day again Toss em lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Watching Boston tv and all are hedging about the snow changeover . Really just guessing and admiting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: All options are on the table. ALL options. Good. I'm cheering on 80F and sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: All options are on the table. ALL options. "We've all got places to go. We've ALL got places to go!" - G. Washington Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Why would it be too cold? It makes sense to me. What's the alternate?GFS? LOL. I mean the 12z definitely went north of the Euro, but the overnight NAM matched the Euro pretty good and was essentially a downscaled version of the Euro. Could the NAM be wrong? Sure, but I would bet on the low level GFS being wrong first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, OceanStWx said: I mean the 12z definitely went north of the Euro, but the overnight NAM matched the Euro pretty good and was essentially a downscaled version of the Euro. Could the NAM be wrong? Sure, but I would bet on the low level GFS being wrong first. They specifically were talking about 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I'm always skeptical of those wind gust products. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 11 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: TWC is rip and reading clown maps as their official snowfall forecast Haven't they been doing this for a couple of years now? The "EURO" is doing this, the "GFS" is doing that... it seems like they don't want to take responsibility in their own "forecasts" anymore. If something goes wrong, they'll just blame NWP models. They have literally no forecasting value anymore because of it. Anyone can "rip and read" model output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: They specifically were talking about 12z. I know they were, but what I'm saying is that the NAM doesn't typically have a significant bias in the low level thermal profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 hour ago, jbenedet said: I think Central NH on North should have higher totals with this. Monadnocks could do really well also. With the further east track early on, the mid levels don't get torched. This is true for VT and North Western ME as well. I think a lot of the qpf early on could fall as snow. Thoughts? One thing for sure. Its a warm sunny day up here. 47F at 1100 feet. This airmass is so warm. Of course we are getting into spring so can have these warm days and blue bomb the next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Harvey What I know: there will b serious coastal flooding, there will b powerful & damaging NE winds, there will be very heavy rain. What I don't know: will heavy rain eventually change to heavy, wet snow in The Boston Metro Area. NewsCenter 5 at 4,5,5:30,6,10(MeTV) and 11 #wcvb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said: One thing for sure. Its a warm sunny day up here. 47F at 1100 feet. This airmass is so warm. Of course we are getting into spring so can have these warm days and blue bomb the next. It's 61F here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 hour ago, DomNH said: True. I guess I should preface it by saying I'd only want snow if it was double digit mashed potatoes with shotgun blasts. Anything short of that I'm all set. You don't really want that. I had double-digit (barely) mashers in late Feb 2010, from 4:1 globs so wet that they couldn't accumulate even on large branches, but would splatter off onto the ground. I didn't try, but was confident that if I'd scooped a handful of snow and tried to make a snowball, water would've streamed out thru my fingers. Had no working snowblower, and moving that mess off the driveway was monumentally harder than clearing the 24.5" storm that came 370 days earlier. (Also done with snowscoop, and had to push snow over tall pre-existing snowbanks for that one.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 13km Euro never gets ORH warmer than 36 (on the synoptic hours snapshot). Is that also too cold? GFS doesn't get ORH into the 30s until 06z Saturday. I don't like tossing the NAM altogether one bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just read Epstein in the globe and he is the only one who said no snow along the coast.. give him credit for making the call at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Euro looks like it shoves the precip shield a bit north of 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 as always I’m taking the under on the wind here. Maybe blue hill hits 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Why would it be too cold? It makes sense to me. What's the alternate?GFS? LOL. When I see people post that sort of info, I also think are they speaking as currently modeled and observed? Because what may currently be observed may or may not occur downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 So.... what do we have now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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