Modfan Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 23 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Good lord lol. That's a Bellingham to Ginx up to Davis Straight limb crushed! Foster/Glocester jack? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 ok then. UKIE slaps the typical west of river worriers on the head yet again....no matter what type of evolution, the big ones eventually want to focus the qpf to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Ukie is sick. Jesus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 If you guys could get the 12z UKIE to cool just a bit more at the 2mT level at BOS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Looking at the forecast soundings for the GFS at GYX, it continues to show like isothermal soundings from 900 to 800 mb. But below that it blow torches. If you wetbulb it, you're talking like +2.5 at the surface? Isothermal above it. Close to paste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Plotting the GFS 950 mb wetbulb T, there is a noticeable sliver that takes a CAD shape of near +1C. Foothills can't rule out getting a blue bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 We need a couple tics colder, But we also need to maintain some qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 No help up here of course. Cue the winter 2018-2019 thread ;). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: We need a couple tics colder, But we also need to maintain some qpf. It’s a great feeling to scratch for the perfect combo, aint it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Wow. That is a crushing pasting You said that about the GEFS yesterday which brought the low over New Haven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Hmm. 00z Euro sensitivity: 60% of the variance is a farther north track. To produce that, the sensitivity says at 12z today we should be looking for higher heights in the western Great Lakes. Well the 00z Euro is underforecasting heights in that region. So you could suspect a move north with the 12z Euro today (assuming it handles the height fields correctly). It may not be a huge move though, because it's 00z analysis was pretty damn good (i.e. not far off the 12z observations). It was actually better than the 12z GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s a great feeling to scratch for the perfect combo, aint it? Its been a battle for this one here, Its really needs to thread a needle for both to work out, Not a classic track for snow when you have a low moving east on some of these solutions, If it could get east of the cape and loop it would be great, GGEM got close to it at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: You said that about the GEFS yesterday which brought the low over New Haven. And you posted this morning on here how you had stuck a fork in the snow threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 12z GEFS is also pretty sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, OceanStWx said: Hmm. 00z Euro sensitivity: 60% of the variance is a farther north track. To produce that, the sensitivity says at 12z today we should be looking for higher heights in the western Great Lakes. Well the 00z Euro is underforecasting heights in that region. So you could suspect a move north with the 12z Euro today (assuming it handles the height fields correctly). It may not be a huge move though, because it's 00z analysis was pretty damn good (i.e. not far off the 12z observations). It was actually better than the 12z GFS! lol of course it was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 HA! Channel 5 met just pretty much punted to Harvey! Probably a good choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 So the NAM has snow to Deleware and the GEM and GFS mostly rain in NE. Could the mesos just have a better handle on the thermal profiles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: And you posted this morning on here how you had stuck a fork in the snow threat For WeHa? Yeah I think it will be tough to get much here. Maybe we can thread the needle but I dunno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: lol of course it was It's what I don't know about the sensitivity stuff. It says "if this, then that" but what type of difference are we looking for? Is a decameter a big enough difference to move the model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Ryan, what do you think in terms of snow for the Waterbury area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 hour ago, Dpb1983 said: Can the Canadian take a gold? Not if it is up against the German Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 olympics jokes are the worst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Pretty big change on the 12z runs down here. CMC looks like a 18-20 hour paste blizzard here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 navgem finally caught on. good for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Not to get weenies too riled (prob too late anyway)...but the top two CIPS analogs are Apr 1, 1997 and Mar 8, 2013, well ahead of the distant 3rd place analog of 2/11/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Not to get weenies too riled (prob too late anyway)...but the top two CIPS analogs are Apr 1, 1997 and Mar 8, 2013, well ahead of the distant 3rd place analog of 2/11/10. Even though it was hugely destructive around here I'll take a heaping helping of 4/1/97. What an extreme event that was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Not to get weenies too riled (prob too late anyway)...but the top two CIPS analogs are Apr 1, 1997 and Mar 8, 2013, well ahead of the distant 3rd place analog of 2/11/10. I think a lot of the weenies have already let off a little pressure already. Maybe twice in some cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: That's way colder on the GFS. That is a snow bomb. Yup. Almost like there's a shot many here see a good shot on the backside. But I don't wanna trigger anyone into feeling guilty about their negativity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Not to get weenies too riled (prob too late anyway)...but the top two CIPS analogs are Apr 1, 1997 and Mar 8, 2013, well ahead of the distant 3rd place analog of 2/11/10. 21 buns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 hour ago, dryslot said: Really didn't understand why some were mailing it in, There hasn't been one model run from any model with the same solution yet............. Sssshhh. Don't trigger them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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